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000
FXUS63 KDLH 231544
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1044 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...UPDATED TO ADD CLOUDS AT THE WI/MI FORDER DUE TO CLOUDS
STREAMING OFF THE LAKE. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS. REST
OF FCST UNCHANGED.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHLAND THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES. ONLY SOME SCATTERED MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO NOSE DOWN INTO THE
FA FROM CANADA. A CLEARING TREND IS UNDERWAY WITH A NE WIND.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NE WIND WILL DIMINISH AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING AND THE SFC
HIGH MOVING OVER THE FA. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD BY 12Z
FRIDAY WITH A CLEAR SKY TONIGHT. WITH A COOL TEMP PROFILE AND THE
CLEAR SKY...HAVE MIN TEMPS IN THE 20S OVER MUCH OF THE FA...AND
NEAR FREEZING OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA. HAVE A MENTION OF
FROST FOR THE ENTIRE FA. THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS A RETURN FLOW/WAA REGIME TO SET
UP. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
WEST COAST TROF.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE MAIN QUESTION FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL REVOLVE AROUND
RESOLVING VARIOUS PRECIPITATION THREATS...GIVEN THE DRY HUDSON BAY
ORIGIN HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINALLY OVER THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. THINK
THE PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WITH AN
ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INITIALLY HIT A WALL AS IT TRIES TO
SPREAD TOO FAR EAST INTO THE CWA. THE DRY AIR SHOULD WIN FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA BUT THE SW TO WEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WILL CONFINE THE POPS FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT TO THE SW 1/3 OF THE CWA. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS ON
SATURDAY...BUT SPREAD THE POPS A BIT FURTHER TO COVER THE SW 2/3 OF
THE CWA. THE DRY AIR WILL THEN BATTLE BACK BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
ONCE AGAIN...WHICH WILL LIKELY MEAN A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH THIS PATTERN
BUT THINK IT IS BEST TO GO WITH A BIT DRIER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY INCREASES ACROSS THE
REGION. THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO SET UP SHOP
IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HAVE PERIODIC SURGES OF MOISTURE INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST...WITH MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD ABOVE THE WARM FRONT
THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE TIME.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY START OUT IN THE 60S BUT MODERATE TO
THE 70S AS THE EXTENDED PROGRESSES.

AVIATION...06Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE NORTHLANDS WEATHER. THERE WILL BE SOME LLWS OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TONIGHT...AND WE INCLUDED IN THE
KHYR TAF.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  34  63  43 /   0   0   0  10
INL  61  31  70  44 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  62  35  69  49 /   0   0   0  40
HYR  60  23  66  43 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  52  31  57  41 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM....GROCHOCINSKI