Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 300533
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1233 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING RID OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. LOOKS LIKE A UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER HAS BEEN
ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE..KEEPING CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTHLAND. BY SUNDAY MORNING WE SHOULD BE GRADUALLY CLEARING THE
CLOUDS AS THE UPPER RIDGING TAKES OVER. THERE WILL LIKELY B
MORNING CLOUDS...SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT MIXING AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
HELP CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS. VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM OVERNIGHT...THEN VERY WARM TO HOT TOMORROW.
AND THE RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO BRING IN MORE HUMID AIR WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE RIDGE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST AS SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE REGION.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP UNDER A LONGWAVE
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING.  ALSO...A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL PUSH WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR INTO THE FORECAST REGION.  THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP
CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.   A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.  WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING KEEPING THE CHANCE OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION VERSUS SCATTERED EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MOISTURE WILL RACE NORTH TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT...AS A SOUTHERLY LLJ DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE COUNTRY. THE HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL HIT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THE
HARDEST...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A
BIT LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR KHIB AND KINL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  63  84  64  82 /   0   0  30  20
INL  63  84  60  82 /  10  20  30  10
BRD  65  85  64  85 /  10  10  30  20
HYR  62  84  65  83 /   0   0  10  20
ASX  62  84  65  84 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...DAP



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