Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 280206
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
906 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 906 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Adjusted pops to align better with radar trends. No other changes.

UPDATE Issued at 735 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Atmosphere is fairly stable with MUCAPE less than 100 J/KG over
the forecast area at 7 pm. Radar trend is downward in coverage of
rain. Have removed the mention of thunder for tonight. Also,
adjusted pops to account for the radar trends. Made some other
minor tweaks.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

A deep southerly flow has drawn plenty of moisture into the
Northland today with afternoon dewpoints in the mid fifties to
around sixty and PWAT values over an inch. The NAM/GFS both
indicate PWAT values to 1.5 inches over northwest Wisconsin by 00z
Sat.

Rain was widespread across much of the Northland this afternoon
and the dry east/southeast flow that had kept much of northwest
Wisconsin dry this morning has been overtaken by increased
moisture and now rain was increasing in coverage. Most of the
models are in decent agreement showing a gradual diminishing trend
in the coverage of the rain tonight as the the stronger moisture
transport shifts east.

As the upper trough progresses east toward the area on Saturday,
we expect showers and some thunderstorms to increase in coverage
through the day. We don`t expect the widespread rain coverage that
occurred today though. We expect highs Saturday in the upper
sixties to lower seventies for most areas. It will be several
degrees cooler near Lake Superior with an onshore wind
continuing.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

The coming week will provide more opportunities for showers and
storms, primarily Sunday and then again Tuesday through Wednesday.
Memorial Day looks great for those that like 70s and sunshine, and
slightly cooler than normal weather could settle into the region for
the latter half of the week.

An upper level trough will lift through the Minnesota and Wisconsin
region Saturday night and Sunday, likely resulting in showers across
the Northland from the synoptic lift generated by the passing
trough. The trough will exit to the east Sunday afternoon, but
daytime heating could produce scattered showers and some storms in
the westerly flow.

High pressure will move into the region Monday, providing a warm and
fairly sunny Memorial Day for the Northland. The upper level ridge
will shift through the Northland Monday night, then southwest flow
aloft will pump moisture into the Northland. Shortwaves lifting
through the flow will probably bring showers and storms into the
region Tuesday and Tuesday night. Meanwhile, low pressure will be in
the Plains, and will move through the Northland Wednesday and early
Thursday. The passing low pressure will likely bring more showers
and storms.

It may not be until late in the coming week that drier weather
moves back into the Northland.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Area of showers has shown some overall weakening in the last hour.
However, some periods of moderate to heavy rain will affect HYR
until 03Z/9 pm with IFR. Elsewhere, VFR at the start of the
forecast. Models indicate that the rain will transition to a
drizzle and fog scenario overnight at all terminals with IFR/LIFR
ceilings and visibilities. By early afternoon, improvement to VFR
is likely at all sites but INL which will only improve to MVFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  48  64  53  73 /  90  60  50  30
INL  54  68  52  72 /  50  60  30  30
BRD  53  71  55  77 /  20  60  50  30
HYR  54  73  55  75 / 100  60  70  60
ASX  47  67  53  73 / 100  60  60  60

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...Melde
LONG TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...GSF



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