Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 280543
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1243 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

High pressure builds in from the north tonight with easterly winds
developing as the low producing today`s rain drifts off the south.
As the rain exits early this evening skies should gradually clear
from north to south, with areas of fog developing where skies clear
out - mainly across the Iron Range into the MN Arrowhead though a
chance for fog exists almost everywhere across the Northland.
Thursday will be mostly sunny and seasonable, except a bit cooler
along the Lake Superior shoreline due to the easterly winds where
highs will be limited to the 60s. Afternoon clouds may produce a
brief shower due to steep low level lapse rates combined with the
cooler air moving in aloft, but at this point think it will be just
virga or a brief sprinkle given lack of large-scale forcing and
drier air moving in at low levels.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Quiet start to the extended with high pressure building into
the region. This will keep the Northland dry, with southerly flow
returning late on Friday and continuing through the weekend as the
high moves over the central Great Lakes. This will bring mild
temperatures through the weekend with highs in the 70s and low 80s.
Low temperatures will be in the 50s. Little moisture is available
until late on Sunday when a more substantial shortwave moves into
central North Dakota. This may bring a few showers and storms to far
western areas late.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase early next week
and heading into the middle of the week as warm air advection and
increasing moisture combine with the lift of a trough moving in from
the Pacific Northwest. Any storms that occur Monday night into
Tuesday night have the potential to produce heavy rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Expect gradually clearing skies from north to south through
daybreak. As skies clear there will be fog development with periods
of mvfr/lifr conditions. The most persistent fog will be at KHIB
where visibilities are already dropping to 1/4SM at times under
clear skies. Some uncertainty in extent of dense fog across central
Minnesota, including the KBRD and KHYR terminals, as mid level
clouds continue to stream over the area. For Thursday...building
high pressure will allow for light winds and VFR conditions to
prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  53  75  55  75 /   0   0  10   0
INL  52  79  57  80 /   0   0  10  10
BRD  55  78  57  79 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  51  77  53  79 /   0  10  10   0
ASX  52  76  55  79 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...WL
AVIATION...Stewart



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