Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 271754 AAB
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1254 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Please see the updated 18Z aviation section below...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 422 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A much cooler Canadian air mass found on the back side of an upper
lever low currently seen in WV imagery approaching James bay Ontario
will push into the northland today. Guidance has shown good run-
to-run consistency that a core of 850hPa temps on the order of a
degree or two above zero tracks over the MN Arrowhead this
morning, then dive across Western Lake Superior through the
afternoon. Highs today will be well below normal with readings
topping out in the 60s. The unstable cyclonic flow combined with
steep low level lapse rates will be sufficient for showers today
and have continued to carry small pops over the MN Arrowhead and
northern wisconsin zones where Max instability is found. However,
QPF will be light as very dry mid level air at 700 hPa will limit
the coverage of showers/sprinkles.

Surface high pressure will build across the region late today and
overnight. The combination of calm winds and clear skies allow
for rapidly falling evening temperatures. Overnight lows will be
driven by the dew point which is forecast to fall around 40F
across the iron range/borderland as well as over northern
wisconsin tonight. Due to the radiational cooling, have introduced
patchy fog to most locations inland from lake superior after
midnight.

Overnight lows will generally be the 40s, with warmer values near
lake superior. Went close to CONSMOS guidance, the coolest of the
guidance. The CONSMOS gives KINL a low of 40F, while the MAX/MET
MOS suggest a low in the upper 30s at KINL. The record low
temperature for International Falls for Tuesday June 28th is 38F
set in 1993.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 422 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The Northland can expect seasonal warmth early in the period, but a
cold front will bring a stretch of cooler weather for Thursday and
Friday. Temperatures will rebound to near seasonal highs over the
weekend.

Wednesday...The Northland will have warm westerly flow with highs in
the upper 70s. A surface trough, associated with a low over far
northern Ontario, will likely move into the Northland, bringing
chances of showers and relatively weak thunderstorms. The best
chances of pcpn are across northeast Minnesota.

Thursday...The low`s cold front and a potent shortwave should drop
through the Northland, resulting in widespread showers. There will
be low chances of thunder. Highs will be in the upper 60s and lower
70s.

Friday and Saturday...High pressure will move through the region,
providing a period of clearer skies. Cool northerly flow Friday will
limit highs to around 70 degrees, but light return flow Saturday
should see highs reach the middle 70s.

Sunday...The southerly flow will strengthen and likely let
temperatures climb into the middle and upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Cold air advection and an upper level trough rotating through
northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin this morning will
continue to be the main factors through Tuesday morning. MVFR
OVC/BKN layer with scattered rain showers will persist across the
area through early evening. Clouds will clear behind the departing
trough tonight and winds will diminish. Light winds and VFR
categories are expected late tonight through 18Z Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  62  47  74  52 /  20  10   0   0
INL  66  40  74  51 /  20   0   0  20
BRD  67  49  76  53 /  10  10   0   0
HYR  63  43  74  48 /  20  10   0   0
ASX  63  45  70  49 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Huyck
SHORT TERM...Graning
LONG TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...Huyck


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