Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 191726 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1126 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 915 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MORNING UPDATE TO PRIMARILY REFRESH WORDING. HAVE CONTINUED TO
CARRY PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THE FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVER
NORTHEAST MN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AS LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL DRYING THROUGH THE DAY. ANY FZDZ WILL
BE VERY LIGHT WITH NO ICING EXPECTED. AT THIS TIME IR SAT SHOWS
CLOUD TOPS HEIGHTS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW. HOWEVER TWO
STATIONS IN FAR SE MANITOBA ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING FZDZ WITH
WARMING CLOUD TOPS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

AFTER REVIEWING THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE DECIDED TO ADD A MENTION
OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST TODAY. THERE WILL BE A
WINDOW OF OF TIME WHERE CLOUD TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE POINT THAT
ICE MAY NOT BE PRESENT THUS SUPPORTING FREEZING DRIZZLE...WITH
CHANCES DWINDLING RAPIDLY THIS EVENING DUE TO INCREASED MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LONG DURATION LIGHT SNOWFALL TO FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A FEW MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP TO NEAR FREEZING WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND A WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA NORTH INTO PARTS OF THE IRON RANGE TODAY DUE TO WEAK LARGE-
SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL
PVA. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE WHICH COULD RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
INCREASED POPS TO DEPICT WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHEST FOR
SNOWFALL...MAINLY ALONG THE IRON RANGE AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
SHORE AT THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD REGION...BUT FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE ANYWHERE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS CONCERN FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT REDUCING THE
PROBABILITY OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW. DID NOT INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE FORECAST DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE AND COMPARING MODEL SOUNDINGS TO OBS EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S AND LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 20S...STAYING FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT DUE TO WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THE STRATUS DECK IN PLACE.

SATURDAY THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUES WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
CONTINUES DUE TO WARMER CLOUD TEMPS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS DRY
AIR BEGINS TO INTRUDE AT MID AND LOW LEVELS. MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME
CLEARING IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE OVERCAST SKIES WILL PERSIST. HIGHS AROUND
30 WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WEST TO THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR POSSIBLY WARMING UP TO NEAR FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE UPPER LOW LINGERING NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL MERGE WITH
ANOTHER S/WV TROF TO PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION AND
HEAVY CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHLAND INTO MIDWEEK.

AT THE SURFACE AN INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING
MORE FOG AND LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE SATURDAY NIGHT.ALTHOUGH
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE ICE
IN THE COLUMN...RESULTING IN FREEZING DRIZZLE. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENS UP ON SUNDAY THE CHANCES OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL
LESSEN.

BY MONDAY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEARLY STACKED WITH
THE SFC LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LOW IN AN AREAS OF STRONG LOWLVL FGEN FROM NRN MN INTO ERN
MN...AHEAD OF INITIAL WAVE. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES SLOWLY INTO SRN MN
EXPECT SNOW TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MN AND WI. A STRONG 160 KT
UPPER JET UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE ADDED LIFT AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  AT THE SFC...THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO SRN WI TUESDAY...AND THEN OVR
LOWER MICHIGAN BY WED. BANDS OF SNOWFALL WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND COULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL INCONSISTENCIES IN THE FINAL LOW
TRACK THAT NEED TO BE RESOLVED.

ONCE THE STORM MOVES OFF ON WEDNESDAY...WRAPAROUND SNOW WILL
CONTINUE...PROBABLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE AREA
REMAINS IN CYCLONIC FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THERE WERE WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN LATE THIS MORNING. THERE
WAS OVC CLOUD COVER AND REDUCED VSBY FROM -SN. THERE COULD BE A
LITTLE CIG LIFTING THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BRING A TRANSITION
TO WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS BY MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LIFR
CIGS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. THE CIGS AND VSBYS FROM -SN
WILL LIKELY LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT TO WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT SIGNIFICANT LIFTING LATE TOMORROW MORNING...SO
MOSTLY KEPT IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THERE IS VERY MINOR THREAT OF -FZDZ THROUGH THIS EVENING...NOT A
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH THREAT TO PLACE IN THE FORECASTS. THE PCPN TYPE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN -SN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  26  23  31  27 /  20  20  20  30
INL  26  21  29  25 /  20  30  20  20
BRD  28  21  30  27 /  20  20  20  20
HYR  27  22  31  26 /  20  20  20  30
ASX  29  20  32  26 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






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