Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 061745
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1145 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

UPDATE FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 1106 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE OCCURRING AND HAVE MADE AN
ADJUSTMENT TO THE SKY GRIDS. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 843 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

PLENTY OF CLOUDS COVERED THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SOME
PATCHY FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED. THE FOG SHOULD ERODE QUICKLY WITH
MIXING ALREADY UNDERWAY. LATEST SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS BRING
LIGHT SNOW A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND HAVE ADJUSTED AS A RESULT. MADE SOME OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS SNOWFALL TONIGHT AND TOMORROW/POSSIBLE
HEADLINES

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR HAS SOME RETURNS IN CENTRAL MN BUT
NOTHING HAS REACHED THE GROUND YET.  MODELS/OBS SHOW THE SFC
TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN WI AT THIS TIME AND WILL CLEAR
THE STATE BY MID-MORNING. NO FLURRIES HAVE HIT ANY OB SITES BUT
THERE COULD BE SOME ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A BREAK
BEFORE THE MAIN SNOW SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AS INDICATED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT....THE NAM IS A LITTLE FAST WITH
THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MIDDAY. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF FOR SOLUTION.
THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AREA OF THE FORECAST
REGION EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE CHC POPS MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2 THIS AFTERNOON FOR A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS
ARE SIMILAR IN THE MOVEMENT OF THE CLIPPER THROUGH THE REGION. IT
WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN MB/OT BORDER BY 00Z SUN...NEAR THE
TRIANGLE BY 12Z SUN...AND NEAR THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA BY 00Z MON.
SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND COVER FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SUN. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MAINLY 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE LOWER AMOUNTS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES/LEECH LAKE AREA. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS OF 15 TO
25 MPH COMMON ACROSS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS/SNOW MAY
CAUSE WINTER WX ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
LATER TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LONG RANGE FOCUS ON STRONG WINDS THAT WILL SPREAD INTO MINNESOTA
SUNDAY NIGHT....BECOMING WIDESPREAD MONDAY.

THE CLOSED LOW WILL EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...PLACING THE NORTHLAND IN A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE DAKOTAS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
NW LOW LEVEL JET WITH 925HPA WINDS OF 30KT SPREADS INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA SUNDAY NIGHT...PUSHING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE MONDAY. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOWEST 1500-
2000 FT REMAIN MIXED THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
REGIME....SUPPORTING GUSTS OF 20 TO 30KT ACROSS THE MN ZONES.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS MONDAY...THE ELEVATED LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS GUSTY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

TURNING TO POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THERE WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW THAT BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY
EVENING...TAPERING OFF THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE
850HPA TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF NEGATIVE 20C ARE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE TUESDAY. THE COLD AIR MASS AND NORTHWEST TRAJECTORIES WILL
PRODUCE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN...GENERALLY
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE DIFFICULT AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN AVAILABLE DEEP MOISTURE AS PWATS AND
MID LEVELS LOOK TO DRY OUT RAPIDLY AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE WIDESPREAD BKN/OVC CEILINGS AROUND 10 KFT WILL LOWER LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE FIRST ROUND...FROM AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM...MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. EXPECT A
PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE INITIAL SNOW...BUT THERE
COULD BE BRIEF LIFR VISIBILITY FROM THE SNOW.

INCREASING WINDS ALOFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. THE SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO ABOUT 35 TO 40 KNOTS AROUND 2 KFT...AND BECOME
WESTERLY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
GRADUALLY ABATE LATE TONIGHT.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN SOUTHERN MANITOBA TONIGHT. IT WILL THEN
MOVE NEAR THE ONTARIO/MINNESOTA BORDER LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. WHEN THE CLIPPER FINALLY MOVES TO NEAR THE NORTHLAND...IT
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO
THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
DURING THE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  26  31  14 /  20  40  60  70
INL  31  25  31   5 /  80  60  70  60
BRD  35  29  33   9 /  10  40  60  60
HYR  33  26  35  18 /  10  20  60  70
ASX  34  27  35  19 /  10  20  60  80

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI



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