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000
FXUS63 KDLH 150639
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
139 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.AVIATION...06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
THE WINDS WILL LOSE THEIR GUSTS FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT...BUT
WILL PICK UP AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THERE COULD
ALSO BE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS A WEAK SYSTEM DROPS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHOWERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/

UPDATE...HAS BEEN A BUSY EVENING PROVIDING WEATHER SUPPORT FOR
THE WILDFIRE OVER THE EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY/WESTERN BAYFIELD
COUNTY LINE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION MAINLY STAYED NORTH OF THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BIG STORY IS DEFINITELY THE
WILDFIRE...WHICH DEVELOPED RAPIDLY AND RESULTED IN ONGOING
EVACUATIONS. TEMPERATURES APPROACHED 90 DEGREES IN THAT AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE BIG CONCERN WAS THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH SHIFTED WINDS TO THE WEST DURING
THE EVENING. FORTUNATELY THE INTENSE WINDS THAT MOVED ACROSS MUCH
OF MN DID NOT MAKE IT TOO FAR INTO WI BEFORE WINDS STARTED TO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THE DLHWRF...RAP AND HRRR ALL HAD A REALLY
GOOD HANDLE ON THE WINDS AND WE DETAILED THAT IN A COUPLE UPDATES
TO THE FIRE WEATHER SPOT FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/

AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS BUT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/

SHORT TERM...SFC FRONT LOCATED JUST WEST OF CWA AS OF MID
AFTERNOON. INITIAL CONVECTIVE AREA HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST OF CWA
WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING. MAX TEMPS HAVE REACHED MID
TO UPPER 80S ACROSS SWRN AND SRN MN CWA... AND LOW 80S INTERIOR
WISC ZONES. MID 40S ARE COMMON ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AS ONSHORE FLOW
PREVAILS DUE TO LARGE THERMAL GRADIENT. AHEAD OF FRONT A RELATIVE
MOIST AXIS EXISTS FROM KOOCH COUNTY SOUTH TO CASS COUNTY WITH
DEWPOINTS MID 40S TO 50. CONVECTION TRYING TO ORGANIZE ACROSS NRN
KOOCH INTO ONTARIO AS AN AREA OF MUCAPE NEAR 500 J/KG HAS
DEVELOPED. HAVE KEPT LOW POPS ALONG BORDERLAND INTO ARROWHEAD
UNTIL FROPA LATE TODAY OR THIS EVENING. REMOVED POPS OVER WISC AS
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION APPEARS TO BE TOO STRONG.

TONIGHT...FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL USHER IN GUSTY WEST AND NORTHWEST
WINDS THIS EVENING. WINDS COULD BE STRONG OVER NRN HALF OF MN CWA
THROUGH MID EVENING. MIXING POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE OVER MOST OF
THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT SO MAY HAVE TO WATCH OVERNIGHT MINS FOR
COLD BIAS.

TOMORROW...A PLEASANT DAY AHEAD IN TERMS OF SUNSHINE AND MILD
READINGS. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AS MOMENTUM
TRANSFER OCCURS IN A LOW SHEAR BDRY LYR. FIRE DANGER INCREASING
OVER ARROWHEAD AND WISC AS LOW RH/WARM AIR COMBINE TO INCREASE
THREAT. LIMITING FACTOR WOULD APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT WINDS.

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY]...

THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
AND THE GREAT LAKES HELP PROMOTE DRY AND RELATIVELY CLEAR WEATHER
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE IS A REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF
PCPN WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO A POTENTIAL STALLED TRAILING SECONDARY
COLD FRONT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
TODAY. HOWEVER...SINCE THIS SEEMS SO REMOTE...KEPT THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FORECAST DRY.

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE
RATHER ACTIVE WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD MAY BE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHEN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSSIBLY MOVES THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST. DETAILS ARE HARD TO DETERMINE DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN EACH MODEL...AND FROM RUN TO RUN...BUT THE
OVERALL THEME OF A PROLONGED WET PERIOD LOOKS SIMILAR. AN OPEN GULF
OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY NORTH TO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THE NORTHLAND COULD RACK UP SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL OVER THE SPAN OF SEVERAL DAYS...POSSIBLY MORE THAN A FEW
INCHES IN AREAS. THIS COULD RESULT IN RISES ALONG AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN TREND TOWARDS NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE RETURNING TO NE
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF
MORNING RAIN SHOWERS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION. THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT IN THE FAR NW MINNESOTA
AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS APPROACHES THE NORTHLAND. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE CANADIAN BORDER AND KINL AREA HAVE THE
GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING STORMS...SO I KEPT THE TEMPO GROUP AT
KINL FOR -TSRA. I THINK IT IS VERY UNLIKELY THAT
KBRD/KHYR/KDLH/KHIB WILL SEE ANY STORMS...BUT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THERE MAY A
BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG W WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 KNOTS AT KBRD/KINL/KHIB LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  72  47  66  45 /   0   0   0  10
INL  71  41  70  44 /   0  10   0  20
BRD  76  48  76  51 /   0   0  10  30
HYR  74  45  75  47 /   0   0  10  20
ASX  72  44  65  43 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...DAP/MELDE