Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 192332
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
532 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 351 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

At 345 PM, skies were mostly cloudy across the Northland. Some
spotty rain showers continued to move across the north, and will
move into the Arrowhead yet this afternoon. Temperatures were the
big story this afternoon, as we experienced a couple record high
temperatures! The first was at International Falls, and the other
was at Hibbing. High temperatures ranged from the upper 30s to the
middle 40s across the region.

The main focus tonight will be the potential for some light
precipitation across the northeast, and overnight low
temperatures. We should continue to see a good deal of cloud cover
overnight, as we will be in between approaching low pressure to
our southwest, and a cold front dropping southward into the Lake
Superior region overnight. Overnight lows are only expected to
drop into the 20s for most areas due to the cloud cover and light
winds. We should see the light rain showers linger across the
Arrowhead into the evening, before pushing off to the east.

Saturday will be a day of transition, with partly sunny skies and
light winds across the region. A weak wave could bring some spotty
rain/snow showers to the north in the afternoon, but have not
included POP`s quite yet regarding the potential for this. High
temperatures should be in the 30s. If enough sun breaks through,
we could see a few 40 degree readings in the south.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 351 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

The main concern during the long term continues to be the winter
storm which will move through the region Sunday through Tuesday
morning.

The forecast remains largely on track Saturday night through
Sunday. Southerly flow over a surface warm front situated over
east-central Minnesota and central Wisconsin will result in
forcing for ascent late Saturday night and early Sunday morning
over our southern tier of counties. Light snow showers are
possible early in the day, but accumulation will be light, less
than an inch.

The main area of snow will move into the Northland late Sunday
afternoon or early Sunday evening, expanding across northwest
Wisconsin and the Brainerd Lakes through Duluth. Snow is expected
to arrive in the Twin Ports and Ashland vicinity between 9 PM and
midnight Sunday night. Snow will continue through the night and
increase in intensity during the day Monday as the storm system
becomes better organized. Sensible heat and moisture flux from
Lake Superior is expected to enhance snowfall rates and amounts
from Bayfield and Sawyer Counties east to the Michigan border. The
system will become vertically stacked by Monday evening and will
lift through the Great Lakes and into southern Ontario by Tuesday
morning. Cyclonic flow in the wake of the system will keep a
potential for lake effect snow in play through Tuesday night or
Wednesday morning. A swath of 6 to 12 inches of snow is forecast
from southern Pine County across southeast Douglas County to
northern Bayfield County and points east. A sharp gradient in snow
accumulation is likely to the northwest of the heaviest snow with
areas from southeast Aitkin County, the Twin Ports, and areas
along the North Shore picking up 1 to 4 inches. Brainerd and Ely
may only see a dusting and locales farther north and west should
stay dry.

There are still some concerns with the going forecast, mainly
that there is poor agreement in timing between the GFS, ECMWF,
and GEM. The ECMWF is also farther south and has been
consistently the southern member for the past several runs. The
GEM is a bit faster and the GFS lags behind the consensus. Since
the upper wave was still offshore at 12Z, there could be a shift
in the guidance with the 20.00Z or 20.12Z runs as the western
upper air network is able to sample the wave. Confidence is high
in snow occurring and all signals point to heavy snow, the main
questions remain timing and location. Further refinement to the
forecast tonight and Saturday is expected.

Quasi-zonal flow aloft is forecast after the storm system for
Wednesday into Thursday keeping temperatures mild. Northerly
winds over western Lake Superior will keep a potential for lake
effect snow in play until Thursday morning, although most of the
accumulation will occur before 6 AM Wednesday as the storm system
departs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 532 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

VFR at the outset of the forecast. A gradual increase in low
clouds from Canada will affect the terminals with MVFR cigs
through the night. A front will be nearly stationary along the
Canadian border through the forecast. A piece of energy moving
along the border may bring some light pcpn to INL. Timing is in
question and confidence is low and have a VCSH mention beginning
at 06Z. Some IFR cigs are possible at HIB and INL late tonight due
to their proximity to the front. They may reach as far south as
DLH, but will leave out for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  25  36  23  31 /  10   0  10  10
INL  23  32  15  28 /  10   0  10   0
BRD  22  36  22  32 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  24  37  24  37 /  10   0  20  30
ASX  27  37  24  34 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening
     for WIZ002>004-006>009.

MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...Huyck
AVIATION...GSF



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