Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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247
FXUS63 KDLH 222345
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
545 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

The Northland`s gloomy weather will continue through Monday. A
thick layer of stratus will continue to blanket the region, and
the combination of low wind speeds and ample low-level saturation
will result in areas of fog through at least early Monday. For the
most part though, expect visibility to drop to the 1 to 3 mile
range for most areas tonight. The lower visibility will likely be
in northwest Wisconsin, the Iron Range, and interior (away from
the Lake) Arrowhead. If the fog gets more widespread and dense, we
might need to issue another dense fog advisory.

There could be periods of drizzle and snow overnight into early
Monday, primarily over northern Minnesota, thanks in part to some
lift generated by an upper trough that will move into the region.
Surface temperatures are expected to dip to near or just below the
freezing mark, so there could be some icing on area roads. The
roads could be slick in some areas Monday morning. Temperatures
will rebound to the middle 30s for most areas by Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Upper level and surface ridging will cover the forecast area
Monday night. However, there is a piece of upper level energy that
will clip the Arrowhead in the evening. A slight chance of rain
and snow mix is possible early in the evening before changing to
all snow. No accumulation is expected. Tuesday through Wednesday
finds a closed upper low moving from the Central Plains to the
Great Lakes. Its associated surface low will accompany the upper
low. There are some differences in the model placement of the
surface low and its track, plus differences in QPF and overall
coverage. This will also affect the snow amounts. Cold air will be
pulled from Canada into this system and the ptype will be all snow
Tuesday morning, mix with rain in the afternoon as surface temps
rise above 32F, before switching back to all snow Tuesday evening
and overnight. The snow will mix with rain again in northwest
Wisconsin and near Lake Superior Wednesday afternoon. With these
scenarios, will see about 1 to 2 inches of snow in northwest
Wisconsin on the northern periphery of the surface low track
Tuesday night and Wednesday. The closed low opens into a long wave
trof as it departs. Behind it, a chaotic upper trof moves across
the region Thursday night. Embedded impulses will generate some
snow showers with little accumulation. Several upper trofs will
move across the area Friday and Saturday. Cold air will accompany
each trof. A northwest flow will move over Lake Superior and
create several opportunities for lake effect snow showers with
some accumulation possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 544 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Widespread IFR conditions will continue across the Northland
overnight, and into Monday, as the moist pattern persists. There
could be some LIFR CIG`s and VSBY`s. There may be a bit of drizzle
or freezing drizzle, but any precipitation should generally be
light. Some improvement is possible to MVFR on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  31  35  26  35 /  20  10   0  20
INL  30  35  22  33 /  40  30  10  10
BRD  30  33  25  35 /  10  10  10  30
HYR  32  37  26  38 /  10  10   0  20
ASX  32  38  28  37 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...DAP



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