Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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704
FXUS63 KDLH 281032
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
532 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 532 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FROM SOUTHERN CROW WING TO
PINE COUNTIES IN MN...AND BURNETT AND WASHBURN COUNTIES IN WI.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND
700-400MB DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION LIFTING NWWD INTO THE
AREA RESULTING IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS AS SEEN ON RADAR. KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE ALL LIQUID FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO BE ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WHILE
AN OCCLUDED UPPER/SFC LOW WAS FOUND IN IOWA. PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WERE ROTATING NWWD FROM THE LOW INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WAS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS FROM THE
BRAINERD LAKES TO THE ST. CROIX RIVER VALLEY EWD TO NEAR PHILLIPS.
TRACE AMOUNTS TO 0.01 INCHES HAD OCCURRED. THIS IS DESPITE VERY DRY
AIR BEING OVER THE REGION. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE TEENS UNDER THE
SHOWERS LEADING TO THE SMALL AMOUNTS. THESE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL
CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND GLANCE THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY AND HAVE POPS TO
REFLECT THIS. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OPENS INTO A TROF TONIGHT WHILE THE SFC LOW
DISSIPATES. BEFORE THIS HAPPENS...ONE MORE ROUND OF ENERGY WILL
BRING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME MORE SHOWERS OVER THE SE PORTION FOR
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE EVENING. AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT WITH
THE DRY AIR NEARBY. THE HIGH FINALLY PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT AS THE
REMNANTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES EAST INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

SEASONABLE AND MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH EASTERLY
WINDS...THEN WARMER AS WINDS SHIFT TO BECOME OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. A
LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER DROPS
DOWN OUT OF MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO...BUT OTHERWISE DRY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR THE WEEKEND...MORE OF THE SAME WITH EASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS.
WINDS RAMP UP SATURDAY AS A LOW DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED NEAR HUDSON BAY.
BREEZY AT TIMES WITH GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE TWIN PORTS
AND ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR COASTLINE...BUT FARTHER INLAND ONLY
GUSTING TO 20-30 MPH. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL
REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE CURRENT SYSTEM...AND THUS EXPECT
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT COOLER IN THE 40S ALONG THE
LAKE SHORE.

NEXT WEEK WARMER TEMPERATURES DEVELOP AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. WHILE USUALLY THIS WOULD MEAN COOLER
TEMPERATURES...IN THIS CASE A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN WARMER IN MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST...INCLUDING DOWN BY THE LAKE. THE ONE DOWNSIDE OF THIS SET-UP
WILL MEAN THAT A PARADE OF CLIPPERS WILL MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS
MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHLAND...ESPECIALLY THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE
GFS IS A BIT BULLISH ON THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT DID
NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS POINT. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTH POSSIBLY RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPS. ALSO ANOTHER LOWER
CHANCE FOR RAIN...BUT GIVEN THE DRY SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF
HAVE NOT INCLUDED MUCH CHANCE FOR PRECIP AT THIS TIME RANGE. HIGHS
THROUGH MID WEEK WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
COULD CERTAINLY APPROACH 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH GUSTY WINDS AT
KDLH/KBRD OVERNIGHT. GUSTS WILL DEVELOP AT KHIB AND KHYR AROUND
14Z...AND CONTINUE AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KINL UNTIL 21Z-02Z. KHYR
AND KBRD MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT...AND SHOWERS MAY LINGER
AROUND KHYR UNTIL 21Z PER THE LATEST GFS/NAM. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS POINT AS EXPECTING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARDS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FROM WESTERN IOWA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  44  31  51  32 /  10  10   0   0
INL  55  34  57  35 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  51  33  58  36 /  20  10   0   0
HYR  50  32  57  34 /  20  20   0   0
ASX  45  32  51  33 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ141>143-146-147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ144-145.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LSZ148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...WL



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