Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 272045
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
SLIPPING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.  THE BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLIP TO THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING...DOING LITTLE MORE THAN SPILL SOME CLOUDS OUR WAY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  IT SHOULD CLEAR OFF ENOUGH FOR
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS TO SET UP AND DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...TO THE UPPER TEENS
TOWARDS THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION WHERE THE CLOUD COVER HANGS ON THE
LONGEST.  SATURDAY OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE
AREA...WITH WINDS PICKING UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AND INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT AM CONCERNED ABOUT
HOW MUCH.  STRAIGHT MIXING TO ABOUT 850MB SHOULD BRING TEMPS TO AT
LEAST THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S...ADD IN OUR DARK TREES AND GROUND
AND THE DRY AIR...AND THAT SHOULD BOOST US ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES.  MODEL
GUIDANCE IS CLOSER TO THE MIXING DEPTH VALUES...BUT BIAS CORRECTION
OVER THE LAST 15 DAYS PUSHES IT UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.  THIS TO
ALSO PRODUCE DRY RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON...FROM 20
TO 30 PERCENT. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE SHOWERS WILL STAY
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MINOR MODEL DIFFERENCES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE SPEED/TIMING AMOUNT
OF QPF AS THE GFS IS FASTER/MORE ROBUST WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER
AND THE GEM IS IN BETWEEN. USED A BLENDED APPROACH WHICH RESULTED IN
NO WEATHER TO 03Z SUNDAY...AND THE SLOWER APPROACH TO 06Z. HIGH POPS
WERE USED AFTER 06Z SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PASSES BY. AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...HAVE HIGHER POPS IN
THE MORNING AND DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. PTYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME REALLY PRONOUNCED ON MONDAY.
USED A BLEND OF MODELS TO RESOLVE THE DIFFERENCES. THIS CONTINUES ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND MAINTAINED THE BLEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TUESDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...WAA GETS UNDERWAY WITH A STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT.
THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH THE WAA AND HAVE SOME POPS
IN PLACE. MODELS BRING IN A DEEPENING SFC LOW ON WEDNESDAY TO THE
FORECAST AREA WITH PLENTY OF POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  18  44  31  46 /   0   0  80  70
INL  13  48  34  45 /   0  10  80  50
BRD  18  44  34  49 /   0  10  80  50
HYR  11  44  31  48 /   0   0  60  80
ASX  13  45  31  48 /   0   0  60  80

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF






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