Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 230540
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1240 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

The Northland`s cool and damp weather pattern will continue
through Tuesday. An area of low pressure over northeast Ontario
will shift east into Quebec tonight, while an upper-level low near
the Minnesota/Ontario border will drop south through Minnesota
tonight. The cool and humid northerly flow, combined with the
upper low`s cyclonic flow, could produce some light rain or
sprinkles ahead of and in the wake of the passing upper low
through Tuesday. Weak surface-based instability could develop
Tuesday afternoon from any heating from brief pockets of
sunshine, but the potential for instability looks too low to even
warrant placing isolated thunder in the forecast.

Tonight`s cloud will prop up temperatures to the upper 30s and low
40s. Much of the region will be limited to highs in the low to
middle 50s Tuesday, about 10 to 15 degrees below seasonal normals.
Parts of northwest Wisconsin and the Borderland near and west of
International Falls will reach the upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

An upper level low closes off near the IA/IL border by 12Z
Wednesday. Pieces of embedded energy will rotate around the low
and bring some chances of showers Tuesday night. The showers will
end from northwest to southeast as the upper low moves farther
southeast and surface/upper level ridging begin to build across
the region. Forecast minimum temps for Tuesday night and Wednesday
night are warmer than previously expected and have removed the
frost potential. The aforementioned ridging will be nearby through
Thursday. The forecast area transitions to a wet pattern Thursday
night through Sunday. This is the result of the next closed upper
low moving from Saskatchewan Thursday night to northwest Ontario
Sunday. Short wave energy will drift around this low and across
the region during this time. There will be enough
instability/forcing/moisture to generate a few thunderstorms
Friday afternoon. Max temps will be near normal to slightly above
during the long range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Areas of MVFR CIG`s and VSBY`s will become more widespread as the
night wears on. In fact, ceilings and visibilities should
gradually decrease overnight, resulting in MVFR to IFR CIG`s and
VSBY`s. Those conditions should then improve due to daytime
heating on Tuesday, with mainly VFR conditions by midday. Spotty
rain showers will be found across the region throughout the period
with the best chance later tonight and on Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  41  53  40  58 /  40  30  20   0
INL  44  57  35  68 /  40  50   0   0
BRD  43  56  41  65 /  40  50  20   0
HYR  38  58  41  63 /  30  50  20  10
ASX  40  54  39  56 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...Melde/DAP



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