Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDLH 212027
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
327 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL/SFC RIDGING COVERED THE FA AT 19Z. CLOUDS WERE QUICKLY
ERODING AS DRIER AIR WAS WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE E. HAVE
DIALED BACK ON THE CLOUD MENTION TONIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO REDUCE IT
EVEN FURTHER BY PUBLICATION TIME. OTHERWISE...THE SFC/UPPER RIDGE
MOVE INTO EASTERN WI/UPPER MI BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS PLACES MUCH OF
THE FA IN A RETURN FLOW/WAA REGIME. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH WIND
TO KEEP ANY FOG FROM FORMING. MIN TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST NEAR THE
RIDGE AXIS IN THE EASTERN WI FA.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGING CONTINUES ON ITS TREK TO THE E AS UPPER
LEVEL TROF MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. MOISTURE
STREAMS INTO THE FA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO BE
OVERCOME AND HAVE THUS BACKED OFF THE MENTION OF POPS UNTIL 21Z.
ALSO LOWERED THE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AND MOVED THE
POPS TO JUST COVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA. THIS LINES UP WELL
WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. INTRODUCED THE MENTION OF THUNDER
AS WELL AS H85 LI`S DROP TO -1C...PWATS INCREASE TO OVER ONE INCH IN
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH SOME MUCAPE TO 500 J/KG. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A
BIT WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH NO ORGANIZED SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED SOME SIGNIFICANT QPF IS POSSIBLE. THE SLOW MOVING NATURE
OF THE SYSTEM...DEEP LAYERED CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC/MID
LVL TROF...AND ABOVE NORMAL PWATS AVAILABLE SHOULD PROVIDE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR AREAL AVERAGE PRECIP OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. INITIAL SYSTEM SHOULD
MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE CWA LATER THURSDAY. A SECOND FRONTAL BDRY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING. THIS  SYSTEM WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING MID LVL RIDGE SO IT APPEARS THAT MAINLY
CLOUDS AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY EFFECTS OF
THIS SYSTEM.HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY FOR
PLEASANT WX. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A PROGRESSIVE MID LVL FLOW
SENDS A TROF INTO THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE UPPER FLOW WILL
BACK OVER THE NRN PLAINS SUNDAY AS A LEE SIDE SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN
THE WRN HIGH PLAINS. MDLS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY AS TO THE   SPEED AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GENERAL IDEA
IS THAT A PERIOD OF RAIN WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. DRYING SHOULD SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME LATE
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LACK OF ANY POLAR INTRUSION IN THE
FCST NEXT 7 DAYS...TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LARGE STRATUS DECK WITH CEILINGS 015 TO 020 AFFECTING KDLH/KHIB.
SHOULD SEE GRADUAL EROSION OF STRATUS AT ALL SITES IN NEXT FEW
HRS. OTHERWISE...A VFR FCST THROUGH THE PERIOD. APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE WRN TERMINALS BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  36  54  46  56 /   0  10  70  40
INL  36  58  46  58 /   0  20  70  20
BRD  38  58  47  65 /   0  20  70  10
HYR  33  56  44  54 /   0  10  70  70
ASX  33  58  43  54 /   0   0  70  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.