Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 192327
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
627 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Updated for new aviation section for 00z TAF set.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Main concern for short term is precip chances late this afternoon

Current surface analysis indicates partly to mostly skies across
the forecast area. GOES-R visible depicts cloud street and waves
very clearly the back edge of the clouds where there is good bulk
shear. Also a line of CU is moving across the arrowhead and NW WW.
SPC forecast tools indicate MUCAPEs around 500 and LI`s 0 to -2
in NW WI. The very lowest levels are dry but if any storms
develop, they will be elevated in nature. Will put in isolated
storms in NW WI for late this afternoon. The threat for
precipitation will end by 00z. An area of high pressure will
build into the region keeping the forecast area dry tonight and
Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Cold high pressure centered over east central Saskatchewan will
extends its ridge axis through the forecast area Monday night. The
high will drift over the region through Tuesday night and begin to
depart on Wednesday. Removed all previous mentions of precipitation.
Wednesday night, the high will be well east of the area allowing for
a warm advection/return flow regime to set up. By late Wednesday
night, a weakening upper level short wave will cross overhead. This
will bring an opportunity for some light snow. Thermal profiles are
just cold enough to support snow. There will be a brief break in the
precipitation Thursday morning before the next system begins to
affect the area. Model differences are quite large with respect to
this system. Surface low centers are in wildly different areas, the
amount and depth of moisture and cold air are in question, and
varying degrees of embedded impulses and their speed still have to
be sorted out. This will affect ptypes. Will use a blend Thursday
night through Friday night. One more impulse moves over northwest
Wisconsin Saturday morning and have small pops for snow as much
colder air is filtering into the area from building high pressure.
High pressure is in charge Saturday afternoon. Max temps will start
in the 20s and 30s Tuesday, warming to the 30s and 40s Thursday
through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Some of the high
resolution guidance is producing low stratus over northern MN for
overnight tonight, but it also depicts it as already formed and
would spread into KINL by 02-04z this evening. Will monitor for
this potential, but do not anticipate it actually forming. A cold
front is anticipated to move through the terminals in the next 6-9
hours, and will gradually switch the winds from generally south to
northwest but should stay mostly less than 10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  29  46  19  31 /   0   0   0   0
INL  26  45  13  25 /   0   0  10   0
BRD  30  50  22  35 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  30  49  22  36 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  30  50  22  34 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...Stewart
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...LE



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