Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 270522 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1222 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. CHIEF
CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT ARE FOG AND LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE AND CLOUDS/SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY.

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY WILL WOBBLE NORTHWARD. DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK
INSTABILITY WERE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A FEW CUMULUS OVER A
PORTION OF THE WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THOSE CLOUDS TO
RAPIDLY DIMINISH PRIOR TO SUNSET.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT. A MOIST MARINE LAYER
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ONSHORE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. A NARROW RIBBON OF PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
GENERALLY ALONG AND NEAR MN-61 IN MINNESOTA...AND INTO THE LOW
TERRAIN FROM CLOQUET NORTHEAST TO PORT WING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
TONIGHT. THERE ALSO MAY BE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...EAST OF A LINE FROM EXELAND TO
MONTREAL...FOR PATCHY FOG. ELSEWHERE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH TO INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND A PERIOD OF
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY...INCREASING THE CLOUD COVER
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. DIURNAL HEATING WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER
OUR MINNESOTA COUNTIES. SEVERAL OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE
HINTING AT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH. AS OF
THIS AFTERNOON...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ARE WARRANTED DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SKIES WILL CLEAR ONCE AGAIN BY EARLY EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR COOLER AREAS
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. THESE HIGHS ARE AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

WE ARE LOOKING AT SOME UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO END THE
WEEKEND...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE
BY SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING SLOWLY TOWARD THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON SUNDAY MORNING AND ACTUALLY MAKE IT INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR WILL ACTUALLY
BACK DOOR DOWN LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING
THROUGH THE DAY FOR COASTAL AREAS. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. COULD ALSO BE A STORM OR TWO BUT WILL KEEP IT
AS SHOWERS FOR NOW. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
CWA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY CHANCE TYPE POPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ON MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL COOL QUITE A BIT BY MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ONCE
AGAIN ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL KEEP THINGS DRY ON TUESDAY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL MOVE BACK IN FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK
AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPREADS MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPO FOR BR EARLY IN THE MORNING AT
SEVERAL TERMINALS. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS MIXING LAYER
DEEPENS BY LATE MORNING. MDLS INDICATE MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH FROM
CLOSED MID LVL LOW OVER WRN IOWA. EXPECT A SCT TO POSSIBLY BKN DECK
BETWEEN 5K TO 8K FEET OVER SRN TERMINALS BY SAT AFTN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  78  51  51 /   0  10  50  30
INL  56  68  44  53 /  10  50  60  20
BRD  57  77  53  59 /   0  10  40  30
HYR  56  77  54  57 /   0  10  20  30
ASX  56  76  50  52 /   0  10  30  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI/HUYCK
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...CANNON





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