Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 300904
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
404 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 330 AM...SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S...BUT THERE WERE A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 20S. WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM THE W TO SW.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. AFTER
THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY BROUGHT A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO MUCH
OF THE CWA...THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH REGARD TO THE SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MN BY 21Z. RAIN WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TODAY...ALTHOUGH AT THE ONSET THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE SLEET. BY THIS EVENING...COOLING THERMAL
PROFILES NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL MEAN A TRANSITION TO SNOW
FOR MUCH OF THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AT THIS
TIME WE ARE THINKING THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR TWO
IN THAT AREA...ALTHOUGH THE NAM WOULD SUPPORT A BIT HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WI. SREF PLUMES MEAN SNOWFALL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS.

THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY SWITCH TO SNOW AND
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. IT
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY ON TUESDAY...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 60S IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...WHERE THEY WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR DURING A PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S...WITH HIGHS
ON TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A CLOSED H50 TRANSLATING OVER NORTHERN ND.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT A REGION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE TEENS PUSHES EAST OVER MN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES INTO WESTERN MN AROUND 18Z WED...SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST QUITE A BIT OF DRY
AIR TO OVERCOME INITIALLY...SUGGESTING CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ONCE THE FRONT REACHES NE
MINN/NW WIS. DUE TO THE INCREASING DEW POINTS AND LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW...HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY.

A DRY SLOT WILL LIFT INTO THE MINN ZONES BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS SRN
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND CAA WILL BRING RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE BORDERLAND/ARROWHEAD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING. VFR CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THERE STILL WILL BE
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SKIES FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED. ADDED SOME LIGHT FOG FOR KHIB AND
KINL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT PRECIP.

ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT RAIN AS THE PRECIP TYPE THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHICH MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

LAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS KEEP PRECIP TO THE NORTH OF KBRD. FELT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP -RA OUT. ALL OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD SEE -RA
PREVAIL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS H850 FGEN MOVES IN FROM SW TO NE AS
THE LOW STRENGTHENS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT FOR KBRD DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  33  52  33 /  70  70  10   0
INL  48  32  51  32 /  60  70  10  10
BRD  59  34  59  41 /  20  10   0   0
HYR  53  31  55  32 /  50  60   0   0
ASX  51  30  50  31 /  70  70  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE/WL





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