Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 011133
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
633 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THE UPPER PATTERN FEATURED AN UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO QUEBEC AND A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC INTO ALBERTA. THE TROUGH/RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY INTO
MONDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF OUR
SOUTHERN CWA TODAY WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY THAT
WILL DIVE SOUTH AND PASS WEST OF OUR CWA. A SURFACE HIGH THAT
STRETCHED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO ONTARIO WILL SETTLE SOUTH
TODAY OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHTER WINDS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY.

HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDED WELL NORTH OF A SURFACE LOW INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS MORNING.
THESE CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY
SHIFT SOUTH AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF SHOW SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIP DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE WRF RUNS ALSO SHOW SOME LIGHT ECHOES
DEVELOPING NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS LOOK QUITE DRY AND THE FORCING IS WEAK. WE
LEFT THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME.

IT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER TODAY FOR MOST AREAS...AND EVEN
THOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG OFF THE LAKE AS YESTERDAY...IT
WILL BE COOLER AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW
CONTINUING.

A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH PORTIONS OF WESTERN MINNESOTA
AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS ON MONDAY. WE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY AS
FORCING IS RATHER WEAK AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE AGAIN QUITE
DRY. MONDAY WILL BE WARMER YET WITH HIGHS FOR MANY AREAS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE SIXTIES. EVEN AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR
SHOULD BE WARMER AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY.
THE EXCEPTION WILL AGAIN BE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WHERE SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A DRY AND WARM PERIOD SUMS UP THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. A BROAD
CANADIAN UPPER TROF OVER THE CENTRAL U. S. WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR
FOR THE FIRST HALF...THEN A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FINISH OFF THE PERIOD.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERLY UPPER
FLOW TUESDAY WHILE A CLIPPER-TYPE SURFACE LOW BRINGS A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE BEST LIFT WILL BE IN THE
ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LIFT WILL BE AIDED BY THE EXIT REGION OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE EAST THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE. OFF-LAKE WINDS
APPEARS TO BE AT A MINIMUM...SO WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN FOR
THE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SOME LOW CIGS AOB OVC009 AT KHYR SHOULD MIX OUT AND BECOME VFR BY
14Z. OTHERWISE...ALL LOCATIONS WILL BE VFR MAINLY SKC THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  35  63  42 /   0   0  10  10
INL  60  33  66  44 /   0   0  10  10
BRD  61  36  67  44 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  58  34  63  42 /   0   0  10  10
ASX  50  35  62  42 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC



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