Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 061459
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
959 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST TEMPERATURE...WIND AND
PRECIPITATION TRENDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MAINTAINING IN THE
60S UNDER THE CLOUD COVER SO FAR THIS MORNING...SO HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. MAY HAVE TO LOWER MAX TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON THE HOW FAST THE CLEARING LINE ADVANCES
FROM WEST TO EAST...AND HOW STRONGLY TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. AM STILL CARRYING SOME THUNDER CHANCES FOR NW WI THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE MODELS INDICATE
WE GET A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF IT. THIS IS GOING TO
DEPEND ON GETTING SOME SUNSHINE...AND IF SOME CLEAR SPOTS FAIL TO
DEVELOP WILL PULL THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WAS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN AS
WELL AS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WI AT 0730Z. THESE STORMS WERE
OCCURRING IN THE VCNTY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH
MN AND WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR ELO TO JUST WEST OF BRD. PLENTIFUL RAIN
WAS ACCOMPANYING THE STORMS IN NW WI WHERE AMOUNTS RANGED FROM 1 TO
2 INCHES. THE RAIN HAD ENDED IN NE MN...BUT A FEW STRAGGLING STORMS
WERE FOUND OVER THE EAST CENTRAL MN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE STORMS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AS
THE INSTABILITY AXIS DEPARTS NW WI. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO FORM THIS
MORNING OVER NE MN AS A PAIR OF VORT MAXES SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
BEFORE NOON. NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED AS CLOUD COVER AND CAA WILL KEEP
THIS AREA STABLE. THE VORT MAXES WILL MOVE A BIT FARTHER EASTWARD
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE RAIN
WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE BEST FORCING MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA.

LINGERED SOME POPS OVER NW WI THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROF SLOWLY
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. JUST ENOUGH LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROF TO
WARRANT THOSE POPS. BY MIDNIGHT...HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT AS SFC HIGH ARRIVES FROM THE DAKOTAS. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MIXING TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS. SFC AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING COVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
TRANSITIONS FROM A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SIMILAR TO WHAT THE
REGION EXPERIENCED ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO
BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AT LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN WARMER WEATHER AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY IN FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA DUE
TO A WEAK COLD FRONT DIPPING DOWN OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA AND A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. ON THURSDAY THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BE
LINGERING ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WHICH COULD LEAD TO SPOTTY
SHOWERS...BUT DECIDED TO GO DRY BASED ON THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
THERMODYNAMICS BEING FAIRLY STABLE. ON THE LARGER SCALE WE WILL BE
WATCHING A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH/UPPER LOW ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. MUCH OF THE ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE FORCED FARTHER NORTH THAN USUAL DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. AS THIS UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS
WESTWARD AND STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND WE
WILL SEE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST.

THIS WEEKEND COULD SEE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT SOME UNCERTAIN
REMAINS ACROSS THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE. ECMWF PLACES THE BEST
INSTABILITY FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE ABOUT
BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...A DEEPER/FARTHER SOUTH TROUGH WOULD MEAN STRONGEST STORMS
REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH...WHILE A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WOULD RESULT IN
A BETTER CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS REMAINS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARMER TEMPS DUE TO ITS MORE NORTHERLY TRACK
WITH THE UPPER LOW...WITH 850MB TEMPS PUSHING TO THE 22-25 C
RANGE. ECMWF NOT AS WARM...WITH CANADIAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE IN THE
MIDDLE. WENT WITH A BLEND RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S ON
SATURDAY...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MID TO EVEN UPPER 80S ACROSS
INLAND LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

SECOND ROUND OF RAIN TODAY WILL BRING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY THE
AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY EXPECTING A
STEADY RAIN THROUGH TODAY WITH LITTLE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN
WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN CLEAR OUT
BETWEEN 18-21Z THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. DO NOT EXPECT
PRECIP TO REACH INL...BUT ELSEWHERE WILL SEE MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE RAIN. BEYOND THIS SECOND FRONT SHOULD
SEE IMPROVEMENT...WITH NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO GUSTS
IN THE 20-25KT RANGE FOR A PERIOD. THIS EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.

WHILE SKIES WILL BE CLEARING OF CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST THERE IS AGAIN THE POSSIBILITY FOR SMOKE ALOFT TODAY DUE TO
CONTAIN WILDFIRES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  71  51  70  51 / 100   0   0   0
INL  69  45  70  45 /  10   0   0  10
BRD  74  50  71  50 /  70   0   0   0
HYR  73  51  70  46 / 100  10   0   0
ASX  73  52  68  49 / 100   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM



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