Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 212339
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
639 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

The large area of light rain that moved through during the day had
all but moved out of the region as of 330 PM. In the wake of this
area of rain, patchy drizzle and clouds blanketed the area. A new
area of showers and thunderstorms was now moving toward the
extreme southwest border, in the vicinity of the strong cold front
moving across western Minnesota. SPC Mesoanalysis page showed
some weak instability in a narrow corridor near the front.
Temperatures were generally in the lower 60s across the region.

The focus for tonight will continue to be the chance of showers
and thunderstorms across the Northland. The cold front will
continue to barrel eastward across the region as the night wears
on. The CAMs are generally in pretty good agreement concerning the
evolution and timing of precipitation tonight, with most of the
models showing an expansion of precipitation during the evening.
As a result, we will continue with a high pop north to south
corridor, which we will then push eastward overnight. Not looking
for a great deal of precipitation due to the limited coverage and
fast movement of the front. We should hang on to some limited
instability into the night, although lack of surface heating and
the time of the year are definitely limiting factors for strong to
severe storms. The best chance appears to be from mid to late
evening across northwest Wisconsin, with the CAMs showing a
proliferation of precipitation during that time frame.

The showers/storms will then end from west to east overnight,
while lingering for a short time in the east on Sunday morning.
Have slowed down the expected clearing behind the front, with most
of the clearing now on track for arriving on Sunday. Highs on
Sunday will generally be in the 50s with a good deal of sunshine.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

The Northland can expect a much cooler week ahead, in comparison to
the near-summer-like weather we had this past week. It will be a
week of clipper-like systems, and even light snow in the forecast.

A weak Alberta Clipper will track across southern Canada Sunday
night and Monday, possibly bringing light rain to parts of the
Northland. Its cold front will swing through the region later in the
day Monday, bringing another wave of cold air into Tuesday. There
could be some light snow Monday night and early Tuesday, but no
accumulation is expected. Tuesday will be particularly cold, with
highs only in the lower and middle 40s. We are forecasting partly
to mostly sunny skies at this time, but it could be cloudier, and
if so, then colder than this forecast.

A surface ridge will bring clearer skies for Tuesday night, bringing
a cold night. Temperatures will likely dip into the low 30s, if not
colder.

Another clipper, a little bit stronger one digging across northern
Saskatchewan and then central and southern Manitoba, will likely
dive through the Northland Tuesday night and early Wednesday. This
system will have more precipitation than the previous clipper, and
the environment will be colder. Snow is more likely, and there could
be light accumulation.

The GFS, European, and Canadian suggest the latter half of the week
will feature the most potent Alberta Clipper of the week. The models
indicate this clipper will track across south-central Canada or the
Northern Plains, into the Upper Midwest and/or Great Lakes region
Wednesday into Friday. The models suggest it might stall near the
Upper Midwest or Great Lakes, depending on the track, late Thursday
into Friday, as it runs up against ridging on the eastern side of
the continent. If it stalls, it could bring an extended period of
cloud cover and rain and/or snow. Details are hard to speculate this
far out, but this will be the system to keep our eyes on the for the
potential for snow that could be measured in inches.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

A cold front stretched from eastern Manitoba through south central
Minnesota and will continue to move east tonight through Minnesota
into eastern Wisconsin by 12Z Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms
will occur ahead of the front along with IFR/MVFR conditions. As
the wind switches to westerly behind the front, conditions will
improve to VFR. VFR conditions will continue post frontal passage
through the rest of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  45  57  43  57 /  90  10  10  20
INL  43  59  43  52 /  80   0  30  60
BRD  42  59  45  55 /  40   0  10  30
HYR  47  60  42  59 /  90  10   0  10
ASX  50  61  43  60 /  80  30   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM CDT Sunday for LSZ146-147.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM CDT Sunday for LSZ140-
     141.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...Melde


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