Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 301724
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1224 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPDATED TO REFINE CLOUD GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. MORNING
MODELS STILL SHOW SOME CLOUDS ACROSS REGION. ALSO...SMOKE IS
RESTRICTING THE SUN SO KEPT THE PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED TEMPS TO MATCH UP WITH NEIGHBORS. REST OF FCST
UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ONE THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF SMOKE OVER THE
REGION TODAY AND MONDAY AND HOW THAT IMPACTS TEMPERATURES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHLAND TODAY AND PASS TO THE
EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. STRATUS AND FOG WERE EXPANDING
THIS MORNING AND THE RAP/HRRR BOTH SHOW THIS TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT...THEN THINNING BY 18Z. A LOOK AT YESTERDAYS VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWED PLENTY OF SMOKE OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA. WE ARE CONCERNED THAT WE WILL SEE ENOUGH
SMOKE TO LIMIT SUNSHINE TODAY. WE TRIMMED HIGHS A BIT TODAY THINKING
THE SMOKE WILL BE PRESENT AND WE ALSO BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER SINCE
SMOKE WILL GIVE THE APPEARANCE OF HIGH CLOUDS. IF THE SMOKE IS
THINNER THAN EXPECTED...HIGHS WILL HAVE TO BE BUMPED BACK UP. WE
HAVE HIGHS TODAY FROM THE UPPER SEVENTIES TO MIDDLE EIGHTIES.

WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND
SOME SMOKE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT. WE HAVE HIGHS FROM 80 TO 85
FOR MOST AREAS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS OVER WESTERN AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WARM AND HUMID THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER WITH CHANCES FOR
AN ISOLATED STORM MOST DAYS. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH ABOVE NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. STORM CHANCES
EACH DAY ARE FAIRLY LOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN IN THE WEST
WHILE A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST...RESULTING IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL PLACE THE
REGION WITHIN THE STORM TRACK FOR A FEW WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
THROUGH THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND FOLLOWING THIS
STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED THURS/FRI AFTERNOON UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
FROM WEST TO EAST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF
THE SOUTH...WITH A VERY HUMID WARM SECTOR IN PLACE AS DEW POINTS
RISE TO NEAR 70. STORMS THIS WEEKEND COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG TO SEVERE DUE TO FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH
WILL AIDE IN INSTABILITY AND STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS LEADING
TO BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION THIS IN
THE HWO JUST YET...BUT SHOULD THE RIGHT FACTORS ALIGN THIS IS A
POSSIBILITY.

HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...EXCEPT FOR 70S BY LAKE SUPERIOR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S ON NIGHTS WHEN SKIES CLEAR...OTHERWISE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
DUE TO CLOUD COVER. WINDS PREDOMINATELY OUT OF THE SOUTH...BECOMING
GUSTY ON THURSDAY FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE OVER ALL TERMINALS NOW AS THE IFR/MVFR CEILINGS
HAVE DISSIPATED. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF UP TO 20
KNOTS WILL BE AT DLH BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
INTRODUCED IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z AS CONDITIONS EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AFTER 14Z WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  81  64  84  64 /   0  10  10  30
INL  85  64  84  55 /   0  10  20  20
BRD  83  65  85  60 /   0  10  10  20
HYR  81  62  83  65 /   0   0   0  20
ASX  84  63  86  65 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...KK


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