Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 242353
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
653 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 653 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Isolated/scattered showers have developed further south this
evening and have expanded POPs through the evening hours. A rumble
of thunder will be possible as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

A low over far northwest Ontario will shift east to James Bay by
Monday morning. It`s associated upper level trough will shift east
from the Northern Plains to the Northland late this afternoon and
this evening. The synoptic lift provided by the trough could
develop scattered showers and isolated storms across far northern
Minnesota late this afternoon through this evening amidst the well
mixed, breezy west-northwest flow. Any storms will likely be
relatively weak.

There will be clearing overnight as surface high pressure shifts
from the Central/Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Light
west-northwest flow over the Northland overnight should be just
enough to stave off the threat of fog, and help prevent dramatic
cooling overnight. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s and
low 60s.

Monday looks mostly sunny with lighter west-northwest flow. Highs
will primarily be in the low 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

The upper air pattern in the extended period will start out
fairly zonal with a big ridge of high pressure over the southern
tier of the U. S. with a broad trof across much of Canada and into
the Gulf of Alaska. It`s this trofiness that will be the
Northland`s weather maker for the next week. Tuesday will be a
change with increasing dewpoints as the surface high slides
southeast and return flow sets up. A little dip in the atmospheric
flow will result in a vorticity maxima and with the increasing
humidity and temperature advection associated with the return flow
we will see chances of storms. The showers and storms should
begin across northern MN where the initial instability and
strongest advection will take place...then this area will slide
south during the afternoon as the surface high moves into northern
IL and IN. The rest of the week will be dominated by the upper
trof with increasing humidity and chances of storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 653 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

An upper trough will swing through the Northland tonight and aid
in developing some showers or a few thunderstorms over portions of
the Northland. The bulk of these showers will dissipate by late
evening. Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the period but
there could be some patchy fog later tonight that drops the
visibility to IFR briefly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  60  82  61  83 /  30   0  10  40
INL  56  81  59  83 /  30   0  10  30
BRD  60  84  63  84 /  20   0  10  30
HYR  58  82  58  85 /  10   0   0  30
ASX  62  82  61  85 /  10   0   0  40

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Melde
SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...Melde



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