000
FXUS63 KDLH 171728 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1228 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DROP SWD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY FROM BRD TO JUST WEST
OF HYR. OTHERWISE...CLOUD CANOPY WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE N/NE AND CLEARS SKIES OUT BY THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS BY TUE MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/

UPDATE...

THE FOCUS FOR THIS MORNING UPDATE IS THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY. THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE COULD BE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE A FEW THAT ARE STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS. AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE IN A MORE
STABLE ATMOSPHERE DUE TO COOL ONSHORE WINDS. I UPDATED THE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES.
FOR ONE...I UPDATED THE PCPN CHANCES TO REFLECT THE CURRENT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD...AND THE LIKELY TRANSITION TO
INCREASING CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING...I THINK THERE WILL BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME AREAS TO WARM UP TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/

AVIATION...12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WITH LIFR/IFR CEILINGS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SLOW MOVING SFC FRONT OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. THIS IS AFFECTING
KDLH/KHIB/KINL TERMINALS. ALOFT..AN AREA OF BKN/OVC100 CLOUDS
IS EMBEDDED IN THE NW MID LVL FLOW. EXPECT LOW CEILINGS NEAR FRONT
TO LIFT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS DIURNAL WARMING INCREASES. SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AT MOST SITES. VFR OVERNIGHT AS SFC HIGH
BUILDS INTO REGION FROM THE EAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DECREASES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/

SHORT TERM...THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE
SURFACE OVER THE NORTHLAND. AREA RADARS SHOWED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD
EXIT OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES BY MID MORNING. WE INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY...MAINLY OVER OUR SOUTHERN/WESTERN ZONES WHERE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GET HUNG UP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE OVER SOUTHERN/WESTERN AREAS...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS AT OR LESS THAN 25KT. WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ARROWHEAD AND AREAS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL HAVE LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN TODAY WITH ONSHORE WINDS
REINFORCING A MORE STABLE MARINE LAYER OVER THOSE AREAS. WE EXPECT
HIGHS TODAY FROM THE MID SIXTIES TO LOWER SEVENTIES.
HOWEVER...INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS QUITE A BIT
COOLER AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY 12Z
WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST FORCING THE
FRONTAL COUNTY TO MOVE WESTWARD. WE EXPECT MUCH OF THE
SHOWERS/STORMS TO DIMINISH OR END TONIGHT. WE DROPPED TEMPS TONIGHT
INTO THE MID TO UPPER THIRTIES OVER THE ARROWHEAD...WITH MID FORTIES
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FROST OVER THE IRON
RANGE/ARROWHEAD REGION.

A FINGER OF HIGHER THETA-E AT925MB MOVES BACK NORTH INTO OUR
SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST ZONES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP
AT 925MB. THE NAM DOES SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF FROM THE BURNETT/PINE
COUNTY AREA NORTHWEST INTO THE LEECH LAKE/LAKE WINNIE AREAS. THERE
IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT...BUT FORCING DOES LOOK WEAK. WE
LEFT THE FORECAST DRY...BUT SOME POPS MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED IF
FORCING IMPROVES. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID SEVENTIES FOR
MOST AREAS...BUT BE COOLER AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

DRY START TO THIS PERIOD AS NW FLOW ALOFT COMBINES WITH LARGE SFC
HIGH TO KEEP MOISTURE PROFILE DRY IN SUB CLOUD LAYER TUESDAY
NIGHT.A MIGRATORY SFC LOW OVER NRN ONTARIO WILL DRAG A SFC COLD
FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. A
NARROW BAND OF INCREASING 85H MSTR TRANSPORT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
CWA AS THE DAY UNFOLDS. INITIAL SREF CPTP SHOWS CONVECTION
PROBABILITY SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER NE MN ZONES ALTHOUGH THIS CAN
CERTAINLY CHANGE WITH LATER GUIDANCE. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS MDL
SIGNALS...IT APPEARS THE SFC BDRY WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND STALL THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. MEANWHILE A
DEEPENING MID LVL TROF OVER THE PACNW WILL PROGRESS INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES BY SAT MORNING. A SFC LOW WILL EMERGE FROM THE COLO PLAINS
AND MOVE TOWARDS IA BY SUNDAY. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE
A STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION REGIME COMBINED WITH INCREASING
PWATS AND INSTABILITY. UNSETTLED WX IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM
THUR NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL EXISTS BASED ON THE FCST SYNOPTIC SCALE MID LVL
PATTERN....POSSIBLE LOW LVL BDRY FOR ENHANCED BDRY LYR
CONVERGENCE...AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING SFC LOW DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  44  69  49  74 /  10  10  10  30
INL  40  75  50  76 /  10  10  10  30
BRD  47  74  54  79 /  40  10  10  30
HYR  42  74  47  79 /  20  10   0  10
ASX  39  69  46  73 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...TENTINGER