Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 281759 AAC
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1259 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

BASIC FCST SCENARIO REMAINS LEGITIMATE ALTHOUGH SOME NUANCES
EXIST WITHIN THE LOW LVL THERMAL PROFILES AND RESULTING PTYPE.
PRECIP HAS MIXED/CHANGED TO SNOW AT KFGN/KROX/KRRT AND UPSTREAM
INTO ADJACENT SERN MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO. THIS APPEARS TO BE CO LOCATED
WITH SRN EDGE OF ENHANCED COLOR CURVE IN LATEST IMAGERY. CONCERN
IS THAT MORE EXTENSIVE SNOWFALL MAY MATERIALIZE OVER NWRN/WRN CWA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN MDL SNDGS AND
DIURNAL IMPACT ON PTYPE...AM NOT READY TO PUSH MUCH MORE SIG
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL YET. WILL MONITOR REPORTS NW OF CWA NEXT
FEW HRS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

AT 330 AM...RAIN CONTINUED TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD REGION BUT THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN TO DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. MUCH OF THE REGION WAS NOW IN A DRY SLOT
WRAPPING INTO THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WERE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH IS CURRENTLY STILL IN
TRANSITION FROM HAVING THE TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS PHASE INTO ONE.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS
THE DAY WEARS ON...STARTING IN NORTH CENTRAL MN AND THEN SPREADING
SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE CWA. THE 4 KM NMM WRF
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY AS WELL AS THE HRRR ALL SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO. WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A POSSIBLE MIX IN THE FAR
NORTH FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA INTO TONIGHT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION
BUT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AREAS NORTH.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING
ON WEDNESDAY BUT ALSO THINK THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

A SUBTLE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TUESDAY EVENING...WHILE A SHORTWAVE AND LOW WILL PASS JUST TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND. THIS SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH COULD
BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE FAR SW FORECAST AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY WITH A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. THE COOL NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY WEATHER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING WITH
CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE
GOGEBIC RANGE COULD RESULT IN UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY. HALLOWEEN
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ONE OF THE COLDEST DAYS THIS FALL SO FAR...BUT
IT SHOULD BE SUNNY WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE NORTH TO NEAR 40 DEGREES OVER THE SOUTH.

THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SURFACE HIGH AND A MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SHIFTS IN THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW SLOWLY PULLS
EASTWARD. POCKETS OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF DEEPER SATURATION AND COOLER
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR
A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AT TIMES AT HIB AND INL. A CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW IS MOST LIKELY AT INL...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS
AS THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TIMING AND
TYPE DECREASES AFTER 22Z...NECESSITATING IN SWITCH BACK TO
PREVAILING VCSH.

COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE REGION AS PRECIPITATION
ENDS TONIGHT...RESULTING IN CIGS LOWERING INTO IFR CATEGORIES
OVERNIGHT. THERE SEEMS TO BE SUFFICIENT MIXING TO MAINTAIN WIND
GUSTS AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS EASING WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  44  33  41  33 /  70  60  10  10
INL  41  31  39  30 /  70  70  10  10
BRD  44  31  43  33 /  40  20   0  10
HYR  48  34  44  32 /  60  50  10  10
ASX  49  35  44  33 /  70  60  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-
     146>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ144-145.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>143.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CANNON
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...HUYCK






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