000
FXUS63 KDLH 161744
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1244 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected today across
  portions of the Northland. Mainly northwest Wisconsin and far
  northern Minnesota. Low humidity and strong winds are expected
  there.

- Becoming windy today with gusts of 45 to 50 mph possible. A
  Wind Advisory has been issued for the Arrowhead down into the
  Twin Ports for this afternoon and evening.

- Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop from south to
  north today into tonight. Rain amounts from a quarter to
  around one inch are expected today through Thursday, with most
  falling through Wednesday. There is a 45 to 65 percent chance
  for amounts greater than an inch from the Brainerd Lakes into
  northwest Wisconsin and along the higher terrain of the North
  Shore. Chances for greater than an inch are less than 15
  percent toward International Falls. A light wintry mix will
  also be possible tonight into Wednesday morning over parts of
  the North Shore.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Today...

Critical fire weather conditions will develop today over parts
of northwest Wisconsin and far northern Minnesota. Strong low
pressure was centered in western Nebraska as of 08Z and it`s
forecast to move northeast into southern Minnesota by 12Z
Wednesday moving to near KGRB by 00Z Thursday. Winds will ramp
up through the day today with a tightening pressure gradient
and strong winds aloft moving in. 850MB winds of 50-60knots are
forecast by the RAP by this afternoon/evening. Widespread gusts
of 30 to 45 mph are expected with some even higher. The best
overlap between the higher resolution models and NBM
probabilities (60-90%) for gusts exceeding 45 mph is along the
North Shore down into the Twin Ports. We issued a Wind Advisory
for those areas this afternoon into the late evening. It`s
possible this advisory may have to be expanded. Occasional
higher gusts will also occur with some of the showers as they
develop.

Light showers were falling over far northern Minnesota early
this morning and this activity is expected to push north over
the next few hours. Area radars were also showing
showers/thunderstorms over southwest Minnesota into South Dakota
moving north. Just how quick this southern area moves north will
play a role in fire weather conditions today. We expect a period
of low humidity, 18 to 25 percent, and increasing winds with
gusts of 30 to 40 mph for a time before the showers and
increasing humidity move in. These conditions are most likely
over much of northwest Wisconsin and far northern Minnesota.

Tonight and Wednesday...

A band of showers and a few thunderstorms will continue north
tonight and strong winds will also continue. Localized even
higher gusts will occur with the stronger showers. We expect a
lull in coverage to develop behind the initial surge of
showers/thunderstorms this evening with it filling back in as
the upper low moves north. Surface temperatures may drop into
the lower thirties along the higher terrain leading to a light
wintry mix but any snow/ice amounts are expected to be quite
light. Showers will remain likely for most of the Northland
through Wednesday. PWAT values are still forecast to be from
0.75 to 1". These values remain in the 90th percentile which is
high but not extreme. Rainfall amounts today through Wednesday
are expected to range from around a quarter inch to around an
inch. The highest chance, 45-65%, for amounts exceeding an inch
will be from the Brainerd Lakes into northwest Wisconsin and
along the North Shore.

The wind will be diminishing from west to east tonight and
through the day Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Friday...

Showers will diminish or end Wednesday night for most areas.
Colder air will move in behind the departing low and an upper
trough will settle over the region Thursday. There will be
chances, 20-60%, for showers Thursday into Friday (lowest south
and highest north toward the International Border). The
precipitation will mix with or change to snow during the
overnight/morning periods but any snow accumulation will be
light. Friday will be the coolest day of the period with highs
from the upper thirties to mid-forties. It will also be windy
Friday with west or northwest winds gusting to 30 to 35 mph.

Saturday and Sunday...

A drier period is expected with temperatures warming. Highs on
Sunday will be in the fifties.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Difficult flying weather for this TAF period. All the terminals
were VFR as of issuance time, with rain just beginning at KBRD.
Conditions to gradually deteriorate over the next 12 hours, with
ceilings gradually dropping to at least MVFR by 06z tonight,
then lower still to IFR for some sites by 09z, with the lowering
conditions spreading from southwest to northeast with the
incoming rainfall. Visibilities are also expected to lower to
MVFR as the rain moves in. Once conditions get to IFR, I expect
most sites to remain IFR through the end of the TAF period,
though we may get some visibility improvements as breaks in the
precipitation begin to work in. Wind is a fairly significant
concern, with winds continuing to increase this afternoon,
sustaining in the 15-25knot range with gusts over 30kts for most
of the terminals between 22z and 06z, with winds beginning to
weaken after than, and then backing into the north and weakening
still further after 12z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 346 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Easterly winds will be on the increase today into tonight with
widespread gales developing. As low pressure lifts northeast
today into tonight, strong winds will develop with gusts of 30
to around 45 knots expected. The strongest wind will occur this
afternoon into late evening. Gale Warnings are in effect for
most of the nearshore waters with Small Craft Advisories
for the remaining areas. The wind will gradually back through
the day Wednesday to northeast and decrease some but conditions
will remain hazardous. A period of showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms will develop late today into tonight and continue
Wednesday.

Winds will become westerly Wednesday night and decrease further.
However, this will be short-lived and west to southwest winds
will increase again Thursday creating hazardous conditions,
especially for smaller vessels. Strong winds will continue into
Friday.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ010>012-
     018-019.
     Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for MNZ012-020-021-
     037.
WI...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for WIZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Wednesday for LSZ121.
     Gale Warning until 4 PM CDT Wednesday for LSZ140>142.
     Gale Warning until 10 AM CDT Wednesday for LSZ143>147-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Wednesday for LSZ148.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Melde
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...Melde