Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 020005 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
705 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

AT 330 PM...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
TEMPERATURES HAD REACHED NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE FAR WEST...WITH
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S COMMON ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. TEMPS
HOVERED IN THE 40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...AS PERSISTENT EASTERLY
WINDS CONTINUED. WINDS WERE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST...BUT
THEY WERE FROM THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. MOS
GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S...ALTHOUGH
THINK TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN EASTERN AREAS OF NW WI. WE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE HIGH AND MID CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND INCREASE ON
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

SURFACE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS EMBEDDED WITHIN WESTERN CONUS LONGWAVE
TROF WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SIGNALING
THE BEGINNING OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA TUESDAY EVENING
AND CONTINUE EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS
IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA THROUGH THURSDAY...OPENING TO A
WAVE BY THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...NEAR/AHEAD OF THE TROF.

LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL DEEPEN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...RESULTING IN MID-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SURFACE TROF OVER WISCONSIN WILL
CONTINUE TO FILL AS IT MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO ENDING ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL KICK SATURDAY
OFF WITH LOW SHOWER CHANCES AND RELATIVELY WARM TEMPS IN THE LOW
70S... BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST... AND ARRIVES SUNDAY MORNING. AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS IS PRETTY HIGH OF THE SCENARIO REGARDING
PLACEMENT OF THE TROF... THOUGH THE GFS SHOWS ABOUT AN INCH HIGHER
OF EXPECTED QPF. HOWEVER THE GFS IS SHOWING INDICATIONS OF 1000-2000
J/KG OF CAPE DURING THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME FRAME...
SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THIS FIRST WEEKEND OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST REASONING FOR THIS 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN AND BACK
TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY 03Z THIS EVENING AND PERSIST
OVERNIGHT..THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND BECOME GUSTY 13-15Z TUE
MORNING AS DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS AND ALLOWS FOR MIXING
INTO STRONGER FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE. KDLH WILL SEE WINDS
CONTINUE FROM THE E/NE AS LOCAL MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE PERSISTS.
SLIGHTLY STRONGER 925 MB FLOW FROM 30-35 KT TONIGHT WARRANTS THE
MENTION OF MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS AT
KINL/KHIB/KDLH THRU 14Z. WE ALSO INTRODUCED A VICINITY SHOWERS
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD IN KINL WITH THE FRONT EDGING
CLOSE ENOUGH WHERE SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  42  70  52  68 /   0  10  60  60
INL  48  75  55  70 /  10  30  70  60
BRD  49  72  59  73 /   0  20  70  60
HYR  42  71  54  70 /   0   0  40  60
ASX  40  74  51  70 /   0   0  40  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ143>146.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...HUYCK/MCLOVIN
AVIATION...MILLER






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