Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 120534
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1134 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 406 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

At 4 PM, skies were mostly cloudy across the Northland. KDLH
radar showed scattered snow showers across much of NE Minnesota,
with isolated snow showers elsewhere. Winds were still gusty as of
mid afternoon, with some locations gusting well into the 20 mph
range. A few locations even gusted into the 30 mph range.

The main focus for tonight will be cloud trends, winds and the
chance of snow showers. The lake effect snow machine should
gradually kick in overnight as well.

High pressure will continue to build into the region overnight,
although the clouds will likely be a bit slow to decrease. With
that said, they should gradually decrease from north to south. The
scattered to isolated snow showers should decrease as well, with
the exception of the south shore of Lake Superior in the vicinity
of the Gogebic Range. Current thinking is that they will see
somewhere in the 1 to 3 inch range tonight, with another 1 to 2
inches on Tuesday. Winds will also decrease overnight as well,
although they will likely remain gusty into the evening.

Partly sunny skies are expected for most areas on Tuesday, at
least in the morning, with clouds increase from west to east
during the afternoon. We have added a small chance of
precipitation in the western third of the CWA during the
afternoon, as the next system already moves into the region.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 406 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Northwest flow continues through the long term period with
occasional clippers every few days bringing a chance for light
snowfall amounts. Temperatures near-normal mid week through the
weekend with highs in the 20s to as warm as the low 30s this
weekend. Lows below zero during the weeknights for parts of the MN
Arrowhead, otherwise in this teens most nights for much of the
Northland.

Not much in the way of snowfall through the next seven days for the
Northland. A weak clipper may bring around 1-3 inches of snow to the
MN Arrowhead and other parts of northeast MN/northwest WI late
Tuesday night into Wednesday with a loss of ice aloft leading to a
period of freezing drizzle across north-central to east-central
Minnesota. About the same kind of snow amounts as the Sunday night
clipper, with some snow falling during the Wednesday morning
commute. Additional lake-effect snow for the south shore through the
end of the work week with periodic chances for snow showers/flurries
through the rest of the extended.

Beyond next weekend a pattern change looks likely across all
guidance leading to a temporary retreat of the arctic air, with
CPC`s 6-10 day outlook trending towards above-normal temperatures
for the Upper Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

MVFR ceilings and light snow showers have been slow to dissipate
this evening and remained over portions of northeast Minnesota and
over much of northwest Wisconsin. As the night progresses, the
snow showers and MVFR ceilings will diminish. The exception will
be over northern Wisconsin where lake processes will continue to
support the lower ceilings/snow showers. The snow showers and
lower ceilings will become increasingly confined to areas just
downwind of Lake Superior late tonight into Tuesday as the low
level flow backs.

An area of low pressure will affect the region Tuesday into
Wednesday with light snow developing over western areas Tuesday
afternoon, with the snow progressing east Tuesday night.
Warm air advection will cause temperatures to warm Tuesday night leading
to freezing drizzle or freezing rain over mainly central/north
central Minnesota, possibly impacting the KBRD TAF. Ceilings will
lower from west to east Tuesday into Tuesday evening with some IFR
ceilings developing late in the period and beyond.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   1  15   8  22 /  20  10  40  60
INL  -3  11   8  22 /  10  10  50  50
BRD   6  22  16  28 /  10  20  20  20
HYR   2  14   4  22 /  10   0  30  50
ASX   6  13   6  22 /  20  30  30  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Tuesday for LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...Melde



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