Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 271154 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
654 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER UPPER MICHIGAN WITH A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF RAIN OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.  THIS SYSTEM IS SLOWLY
EJECTING OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING THE CWA WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING.  A WEAK TROUGH AXIS WILL
EXTEND BACK ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  WITH THE STRONG SUNSHINE
AND DEEP MIXING EXPECTED TODAY HIGHS SHOULD GET UP CLOSE TO 80
DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TONIGHT TO ALSO BE WARM...WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION SETTING UP OVER THE AREA AND GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUD
COVER.  LOW SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.  LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY A WAVE OF THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH A SURGE
OF SHOWER AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THERE WILL BE MORE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS POTENTIAL.  THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE MY
SOUTHERNMOST MINNESOTA COUNTIES TO RISE TO NEAR 80 ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONG PUSH OF MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH NWD INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM LATE THUR/THUR NIGHT WILL ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO BECOME PRIMED FOR PLENTY OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AROUND 1 INCH...WITH LOCALLY 2 TO 3 INCH REPORTS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE LATE
THURSDAY OVER N-CENTRAL MN AS THE WARM/UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE...COUPLED WITH A DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL LLJ AND STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY STABILIZE LATE THUR NIGHT
AND FRI MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN NW WI
ALONG THE TRAILING SFC BOUNDARY WITH THE UNSTABLE AIR TO THE SOUTH
AND SE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF AND SKIES
CLEARING OUT. BOTH SAT AND SUN MORNING WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR LATE
MAY WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. SUNDAY APPEARS
TO BE THE COLDEST MORNING WITH LOWER 30S POSSIBLE. ADDED THE MENTION
OF FROST TO THE FORECAST. WITH MUCH OF THE REGION ENTRENCHED IN THE
GROWING SEASON...A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EWD A SLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ADVECTING IN
OVER THE N-CENTRAL CONUS. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A COLD/STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS
DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WRN GREAT LAKES AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT MILD LATE THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
IN THE 60S AND 70S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE TEMPERATURES WILL DIVE INTO THE 50S AND
60S FOR HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...AND INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S FOR
LOWS. TEMPS WILL RECOVER BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST ALLOWING RAIN TO END OVER
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH THE TAIL END OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY HAVE AN HOUR OR SO OF
FOG DEVELOP ALONG THIS CLEARING LINE THIS MORNING BEFORE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS SET IN BY 15Z. WARM CONDITIONS DEVELOP
TODAY WITH LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE CUMULUS AND A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY 10 TO 20 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. AFTER 01-02Z THIS EVENING CONDITIONS CLEAR OFF AND
WINDS SUBSIDE. NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO ARRIVE AROUND BRD CLOSE TO
12Z THURSDAY...WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AROUND HYR. A NE WIND OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR COULD DROP CIGS AND VSBYS AT DLH AFTER 06Z TONIGHT
AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THE AMT OF DRY AIR IN
PLACE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  81  49  65  49 /  30  10  20  70
INL  79  48  72  49 /  20  40  80  70
BRD  82  56  77  59 /  10  20  50  70
HYR  80  51  80  60 /  40  10  20  70
ASX  82  44  69  53 /  60  10  20  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJT





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