Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 121915
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
215 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gradually cooling temperatures through the weekend.

- Next best chance of precipitation late Friday into the weekend.

- Potential for below normal temperatures mid to late month.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Another warm day across the Northland today with highs in the 50s
and 60s this afternoon, some of which could break high daily
temperature records again. Temperatures will cool a little more
efficiently overnight, with most low temperatures able to drop below
freezing. It`s also been another very dry day with relative
humidities dropping as low as 15-20 percent. Humidities are much
higher to the northwest, and we should see that more moist air begin
to push into the area through the week.

Winds calm into this evening and overnight with cooling
temperatures. While temperatures will still be above normal through
the rest of the week, we should return to seeing overnight lows
below freezing and afternoon highs in the 30s and 40s. Thursday
afternoon into Friday a low pressure system passes to our south.
This has steadily trended further south with more mid level dry air
over our CWA, and now looks to barely touch the southern portions of
the area. There`s a chance it might not bring any precipitation
whatsoever to the Northland. But it should bring not only slightly
cooler temperatures but also an increased pressure gradient, leading
to a very breezy day Thursday with winds out of the northeast, felt
most prominently near Lake Superior. This will lead to cooler
temperatures near the lake Thursday, so while most areas warm up
into the low to mid 40s, coastal regions will probably stay in the
upper 30s with a stiff breeze.

Global models are in decent agreement for a clipper to drop over the
Northland into and through the weekend which may bring some
precipitation chances from either rain or snow. All ensemble
solutions are in pretty good agreement at this point that this would
be light, with all solutions less than 0.5" of QPF, and most less
than 0.25". Steeper low level lapse rates could make any
precipitation more showery or squally in nature, with some lake
effect possible along the South Shore. 850mb temperatures drop into
the weekend and beyond, possibly as low as -15 to -20C, which could
lead to persistent like lake effect rain and snow along the South
Shore.

Looking further ahead through the month of March, latest outlooks
and ensemble trends point towards a potential cooling pattern!
Outlooks indicate the potential (30-50%) chance of seeing below
normal temperatures by mid to late March, which could mean
temperatures mostly below to around freezing if that verifies. These
cooler temperatures could come with a marginal above normal chance
of precipitation (33-40%), likely later in the month - mid month
looks like more of our persistent dry pattern.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. Some gusty northwest
winds this afternoon before calming this evening. Models continue to
back off on the potential for low ceilings to make it to and across
the International Border, so have adjusted ceilings at INL to barely
make it to MVFR overnight, but this ultimately may not happen.
Conditions remain VFR into Wednesday morning with winds turning
northerly and remaining light.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Westerly winds today will calm overnight and become north to
northeasterly Wednesday, with a couple isolated gusts up to 15knots
possible in the afternoon. Winds stay from the northeast into
Thursday and increase in strength as a pressure gradient increases.
Gusts of 20 to 25 knots or greater possible Thursday with waves
approaching 4 feet near the head of the lake.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...Levens
MARINE...Levens


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