Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 290858
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
358 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS WEATHER EXCEPT SHOWERS AND SOME
SCATTERED STORMS MAY BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD.

UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WITH DIURNAL HEATING
AND COLD AIR ALOFT EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...MAINLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM INL THROUGH GPZ AND PINE CITY AND ALL OF NWRN
WI. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO HEADING TOWARD THE MN ARROWHEAD. DRYDEN
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE S/WV MOVING SOUTH.
STABILITY INDEXES ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY ALSO...ABOUT 1000
CAPE. CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND 70 SHOULD BE REACHED AROUND NOON.
COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER TOPS WITH LOW
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9000-9500 FT AGL. RUC FORECAST 50DBZ
HEIGHTS FOR 1 INCH HAIL IS ABOUT 22000-2300 FT...SO LOW-TOPPED COLD
STORMS TODAY. THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATER
TONIGHT...THEN A NEAR REPEAT ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HOVER OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NW TO NORTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTHLAND. DAYTIME HEATING AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND...PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS INT
HE MID TO UPPER 70S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT NE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT AND WARM WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT IN CANADA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S.

THE MODELS LOSE AGREEMENT AS TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA OR NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES
EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF DROPS THE COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY AND STALLS THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE GFS
WOULD SUGGEST LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND STALLS OVER THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND THEN INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST
LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHEN THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THEN DRY WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
BASICALLY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL THE GFS AND ECMWF CAN COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THERE WILL THEN BE A BREAK
IN THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN LINGER
INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BUT
SOME LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE BRIEFLY WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  77  57  76  56 /  30  20  20  10
INL  77  50  78  52 /  20  20  10  10
BRD  78  56  79  57 /  10  10  10   0
HYR  75  52  77  53 /  40  20  20  10
ASX  73  50  75  53 /  50  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...GRG
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI





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