Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 260524
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1224 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...AND ALLOW
WINDS TO DIMINISH...AND EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT FOR MOST AREAS.
THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SEE WINDS STAY HIGHER FOR A
LONGER PERIOD THIS EVENING.

THERE COULD BE COME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT DUE TO LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES...BUT THE AIRMASS IS SO DRY WE ELECTED TO NOT
INCLUDE THE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

AS THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE WIND WILL
NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DUE TO WAA
AND AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO
NEAR 0.8 INCHES BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW FROM
30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL HELP TRANSPORT THIS MOISTURE NORTH. SOUNDINGS
ARE QUITE DRY INITIALLY SUNDAY...AND WE EXPECT MOST AREAS TO
REMAIN DRY. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER OUR NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE WE
HELD ONTO SOME SMALL POPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT...AND WE HAVE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM MENTIONED AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

LEAD S/W TROF AND STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL DRIVE RATHER STRONG LOW
LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST
MARGINAL RETURN OF MAINLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUNDAY EVENING WITH
MODEL SPREAD OF CAPE VALUES BETWEEN A FEW HUNDRED TO NEAR 1000 J/KG
DEPENDING ON THE PARTICULAR MODEL OR ENSEMBLE MEMBER.  THUS..THERE
SHOULD BE A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF TSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN PARTS OF THE DULUTH CWA FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE MAIN LOBE OF WARM/MOIST ADVECTION TRANSLATES ENEWD.

WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND PARTS
OF NW WISCONSIN ON MONDAY..THE NEXT ORGANIZED CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS
A STRONG MID LEVEL TROF MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND
PRODUCES 12-HOUR HEIGHT FALLS BETWEEN 60-120M. THE MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
MN..WITH MORE SHOWERY TYPE COVERAGE FARTHER SOUTH.  FOR THE MOST
PART..THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR MOST OF
THE PRECIP TO FALL IN THE LIQUID FORM..BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
HEIGHT FALLS AND RAPID COOLING OF THE ENTIRE COLUMN OVER THE MN
ARROWHEAD TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING..RAIN COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE
TO SNOW FOR A TIME. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF FAR NE MN.

TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS AFTER THIS
SYSTEM..BEFORE A MORE SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES TOWARD
THE END OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST WINDOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SLOWLY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEAST AFTER 18Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 00Z AND AFFECT THE
TERMINALS FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE EVENING. FOR NOW HAVE PUT IN
A VCTS GROUP AS TIMING AND SPECIFIC LOCATION IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  45  56  42  46 /  60  20  50  30
INL  43  57  41  43 /  60  20  40  40
BRD  44  59  40  46 /  30  20  30  20
HYR  46  56  41  49 /  70  20  40  30
ASX  44  57  43  50 /  60  20  40  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...LE








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