Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
000
FXUS63 KDLH 101743
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1243 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon
  into evening, with the best chances across the Minnesota
  Arrowhead.

- Temperatures will be warm with temperatures creeping into the
  60s on most days in this forecast.

- A large system largely misses the Northland to the east on
  Friday though it will bring some breezy northwest winds.

- There could be a large warm and wet system in the area
  Tuesday through Thursday next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

A fairly active weather pattern ahead.

Clear skies, light winds, and antecedent rain is expected to
cause some patchy dense fog this morning. After the fog burns
off, we`ll see temperatures climb into the 60s. This will
destabilize the atmosphere by mid to late afternoon causing
showers and possibly thunderstorms. Steep low-level lapse rates
provide the foundation for some minimal (< 500 J/kg) CAPE, but
lack of low level moisture, and really not much shear, limits
the potential. This low-level dry air does increase the threat
for gusty showers and thunderstorms if they do develop with
sounding exhibiting inverted-V characteristics. The HRRR shows a
complex forming northeast of Hibbing and moving northeast into
the BWCA

Fairly steep lapse rates linger into Thursday for more shower
activity. On Friday, a large and deep low pressure moves north
over Lake Huron and will act to increase the pressure gradient
over the Northland. This will boost winds and make for a breezy
Friday. A zonal jet will keep weather interesting ushering in a
clipper on Saturday night into Sunday morning.

A fairly expansive and deep low pressure system approaches
around Tuesday of next week. Model guidance has a broad range of
solutions for this, but the GEFS and EPS means cluster this low
over MN/WI.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Scattered showers have developed across far northern Minnesota
into the Minnesota Arrowhead, with additional development
expected later this afternoon. Have included -SHRA with VFR
bases at INL/HIB where coverage will be better, and lesser
coverage around DLH where a VCSH was included. Steeper lapse
rates, some instability, and shear should promote the
development of a few thunderstorms in north-central Minnesota
into the Minnesota Arrowhead later this afternoon into mid-
evening. Generally light winds expected for the TAF period
outside of variable winds with thunderstorms, which could gust
up to 30 knots on a localized basis if a thunderstorm gust front
moves through a terminal.

MVFR to IFR ceilings and some fog move in late tonight into
Thursday morning, mainly in north-central Minnesota into the
Minnesota Arrowhead with winds turning northwesterly.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 229 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Generally quiet conditions are expected on Lake Superior
through Thursday. Thursday evening conditions will begin to get
hazardous with winds beginning to gust over 20 kts with
building waves along the South Shore for Thursday night into
Friday. Do not expect anything extreme at this point, and the
likelihood of getting gale force gusts is less than 25 percent.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolfe
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...Wolfe


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.