Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 261739 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1239 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

EXTENDED THE LAKE SNOW ADVISORY FOR IRON COUNTY UNTIL 05Z FRI AFTER
COORDINATION WITH MQT AND THE RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE WINDS
STAY FAVORABLE FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD SWITCH THE
WINDS. CURRENT WEBCAMS AND REPORTS INDICATE SNOW SHOWERS IS STILL
COMING DOWN.

ALSO...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS ON SATELLITE AND CURRENT OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS DESCENDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
TODAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE COOL AND DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY AS OF 08Z/3AM CDT AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THIS MORNING. WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH THE
WINDOW FOR THE BEST LAKE EFFECT ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CLOSING THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE DECIDED TO
DECREASE SNOW TOTALS BY A BIT. WILL LIKELY LET THE CURRENT ADVISORY
FOR IRON COUNTY RUN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...SINCE REVISED
LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES IS STILL WITHIN THE
ADVISORY CRITERIA. SNOWFALL TAPERS OFF THIS AFTERNOON BUT COULD SEE
ANOTHER PULSE OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER
FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST RESULTING IN A LONGER FETCH...BUT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THIS EVENING WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE AN INCH OR TWO.
ADDED SOME GENEROUS FLURRIES INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BASED
OFF SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE...BUT
GENERALLY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.

ELSEWHERE TODAY...DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE MORNING BECOMING SUNNY
THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING
BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. COOLER...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND COLD. NEAR CALM WINDS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS...WITH LOWS NEAR ZERO IN THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD.

FRIDAY...SUNNY AND DRY. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY BUT
OTHERWISE SUNNY. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND LIGHT AT LESS THAN 10
MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COULD DROP TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DUE TO WEAK
WINDS. TEMPERATURES COOL...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...EXCEPT
ALONG THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD A
WESTERN RIDGE PERSISTING. THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE ZONAL
LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE PERIOD BRINGING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHLAND.

A DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE WILL CAUSE DRY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WE LOWERED TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE THICKENING
CLOUDS AS MID LEVEL WAA DEVELOPS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL START TO IMPACT
THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THE MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT BRINGING THIS SYSTEM THROUGH...BUT ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE DETAILS OF TIMING AND AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. WE DID INCREASE POPS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND MAY HAVE TO FURTHER. A MIX OF SNOW AND
RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF
HIGHWAY 53.

WEAKER SYSTEMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SHOWING A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD...AND INITIALLY LOOKS WARM ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH
LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS WERE 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH.

A CLEARING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  30  13  30  14 /  10   0   0  10
INL  26   7  35  14 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  34  13  36  18 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  31  10  35  11 /  30  10   0   0
ASX  28  15  30  10 /  30  40  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR WIZ004.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/WL






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