Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 270537
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1237 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Updated for the new 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

The closed upper low centered near Kenora Ontario will open up and
translate eastward tonight and tomorrow. This will result in winds
shifting to the northwest overnight, and a continued cool down
through Monday. Cold air aloft on the southern periphery of the
circulation has led to widespread convective clouds across our
northern zones, along with numerous showers and a few brief
thunderstorms this afternoon even with limited surface heating.
The risk for thunder should rapidly end this evening, but the area
of widespread clouds and showers should slowly sag southward
across much of the central and eastern sections of the Duluth CWA
through the night with the main trof axis, and persist for much
of Monday across the MN Arrowhead and NW Wisconsin.

While not as windy as today, Monday should still be rather breezy
most of the day along with some gusts around 20 mph. Despite more
widespread clouds to start the day, which will act to inhibit
mixing, there is still 20-25 knots of flow in the 925-850 mb
layer, which should support gusts in the 20-25 mph range,
especially over southwest sections of the CWA where clouds should
mix out during the afternoon and allow at least somewhat deeper
mixing.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

High pressure settles over the forecast area Monday night and
lingers through Tuesday night. On Wednesday, a closed upper low is
moving around northwest Ontario. A cold front begins to approach the
Canadian border from the associated surface low Wednesday morning.
Model differences with the speed and location of the front and its
impacts on the northern portion of the area, results in low pops
north of the Iron Range in the morning. These differences continue
in the afternoon and will used a blended approach to pops. The front
moves just a bit in the afternoon. This results in the pops
advancing just a bit further south. The front slowly drops southward
Wednesday night allowing for placement of a bit higher pops and
cover the entire forecast area. Some question as to the amount of
instability for the mention of thunder. Again, model differences
here and have gone with the consensus and have thunder mentioned. On
Thursday, the front drives through the rest of the region. The best
instability is found in the morning from Hinckley to Glidden,
Wisconsin, and have a mention of thunder, but lingered it for the
entire day. Further north, just showers as 700mb temps drop below
0C. The aforementioned closed upper low sends a trof through the
forecast area Thursday evening before departing late. Have small
pops to account for this feature. High pressure begins to build into
the region late Thursday night. The high pressure settles over the
area through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Widespread stratocumulus continued to spread southward across the
Northland TAF sites, and will continue to spread in overnight.
Ceiling heights should generally lower as the night wears on, with
VFR conditions giving way to mainly MVFR from north to south. MVFR
conditions will start right away at KINL, and then develop further
southward. As drier high pressure builds in on Monday and Monday
evening, look for MVFR conditions to transition to VFR as the day
wears on. Skies overall should clear Monday Evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  62  49  72 /  20  20   0   0
INL  52  65  45  74 /  60  20   0   0
BRD  55  66  49  76 /  10  10   0   0
HYR  56  63  45  74 /  10  20  10   0
ASX  56  62  47  70 /  20  30  10   0

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM CDT early this morning for
     LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Grochocinski
AVIATION...DAP/Grochocinski



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