Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 070500
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1200 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPDATED SKY COVER THIS EVENING AS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A DECK OF MID LEVEL CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE/SECONDARY COLD FRONT RESIDING OVER NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. A
CURRENT TIMING ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER BRINGS THE
CLEARING LINE THROUGH BRAINERD AND HIBBING AROUND
MIDNIGHT...REACHING DULUTH AND HAYWARD DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK STARTS OUT RATHER QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF/GEM REG/NAM ARE
ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DRIFT EASTWARD
INTO WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT... EXTENDING FROM THE
HUDSON BAY TO MONTANA...MOVES INTO THE FAR NW MINNESOTA AND STALLS
WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THE FRONT WILL ERODE AND
LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY THURSDAY... THE CHALLENGE WILL BE WHETHER WE
SEE ANY SHOWERS OUT OF IT. NAM/ECMWF HAVE BACKED OFF ON SHOWERS AND
MOSTLY KEPT POPS WEST OF THE CWA... SO ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD
ACCORDINGLY ACROSS INL SOUTHWARD TO BRD. IT WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION TO GET A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO OUT OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MN... SO FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY
LATER.

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE ALL
WEEK... WITH HIGHS IN THE NORTHLAND IN THE MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY...
CLIMBING TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S THIS WEEKEND. ENDED UP
TWEAKING BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS UP A BIT WITH GUIDANCE FROM THE
BCCONSALL/BCCONSMOS.

THE POTENTIAL REMAINS THIS COMING WEEKEND FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. ECMWF/GFS
BOTH MOVE A COLORADO LOW NORTHWARD TO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS... RAISING
A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS MN/WI SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. GFS...
WHILE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF THE MODELS... PEAKS MUCAPE IN THE 2000-
4000 J/KG RANGE... SO THE EXTENDED PERIOD BARES WATCHING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MID LEVEL CEILINGS ABOVE 5 KFT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
DAY BREAK. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  50  70  52  74 /   0   0   0   0
INL  45  71  47  75 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  49  71  50  76 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  50  70  47  74 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  53  68  49  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...GRANING


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