000
FXUS63 KDLH 240530
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1230 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High pressure will bring dry conditions to the region for
  Wednesday resulting in near-critical fire weather conditions.

- A parade of low pressure systems will bring widespread
  rainfall to the region for Friday through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 443 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

A cold front had cleared much of the Northland this mid-
afternoon with shower activity pushing to the south of the
region. Clearing skies were working in from the north as high
pressure over northern Manitoba pushed south. With the clearing
skies and cooler air moving into the region overnight, lows will
be in the 20s tonight.

High pressure will be overhead for Wednesday and lead to dry
conditions across the Northland. Winds will not be very strong,
but will still be enough to mix a mid-level layer of dry air to
the surface. This will lead to near-critical RH values over most
of the region, especially along and north of the Iron Range
which missed out on most of the rainfall activity today. RH
values of 20 to 25 percent are expected for most (80% chance) and
may trend drier if better mixing conditions can occur.

The area of high pressure will shift to the east for Thursday
setting up southerly return flow across the Upper Midwest. This
will help boost highs into the 60s for areas away from Lake
Superior. Easterly winds over Lake Superior will bring in cooler
lake air for areas near the shore and into much of the
Arrowhead.

The pattern then turns active for Friday into Monday with a pair
of Colorado lows forecast to affect the Upper Midwest. Showers
will begin moving into the region Friday morning and remain
possible into Saturday night with the first low. The second low
will follow on its heels with showers returning late Sunday and
lingering into Monday. Some light snow will be possible late
Monday as the system departs, but chances are low (<20%) at
this time for anything that will stick. In terms of overall QPF,
these systems look to tap into Gulf moisture and chances for at
least 1" of QPF across northwest Wisconsin. Chances for at least
an inch across northeastern Minnesota have come down a bit since
overnight with a 50-70% chance for areas along and south of the
Iron Range. Some rumbles of thunder will be possible at times
over the weekend, but strong or severe storms are not currently
expected.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

VFR conditions throughout the forecast. Satellite and observations
this morning show some very isolated low stratus along the North
Shore but probabilities of any flight category changes for the
terminals have dropped to less then 20%. High pressure will be
exiting to the east with predominately southerly winds today. DLH will
be the exception as it will have a little more lake influence
leading to more south east to easterly winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 443 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

High pressure will build across western Lake Superior tonight
allowing winds to diminish to 5 to 10 knots from the east. Winds
will remain easterly for Wednesday at 5 to 15 knots with gusts
to around 20 knots in the western arm of the lake. Easterly
winds at 10 to 20 knots will persist for Thursday. A pair of low
pressure systems will impact western Lake Superior for Friday
through Monday and may lead to conditions hazardous to small
craft during that time.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ148-
     150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...BJH