Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 310542
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1242 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Temperatures warmed into the low 80s for most locations across
the northland today. We continue to monitor potential for
convection through the afternoon in the unstable air mass ahead of
the approaching low. latest soundings indicate sufficient CAPE to
support a few storms.

East to northeast winds will increase overnight into Tuesday
across Northeast MN and western Lake superior as an area of low
pressure advances from the Dakotas. The gusty onshore flow will
keeping temperatures much cooler near lake superior tomorrow.

The convection increases in coverage through the night, becoming
widespread during the day Tuesday. Expect rainfall totals of a
quarter to a half inch...with some locally heavier amounts.
Tuesday will also bring cooler temperatures...higher humidity.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

An upper level low pressure system will continue to
affect the Northland early in the period. A strong cold front will
push eastward across the region Tuesday Night, bringing numerous
thunderstorms to the eastern portion of the CWA during the evening.
A dry slot will then work into the western portion of the CWA, with
cooler air pushing in as low pressure moves along the International
Border region. Wrap around showers will then wrap into the Northland
on Wednesday and Wednesday Night. Thursday should generally be on
the dry side, although the ECMWF is hinting at some cold air spotty
showers at max daytime heating. Westerly flow will start to amplify
by Friday, as another in a series of shortwaves digs into the upper
midwest and south central Canada. This shortwave will bring the next
chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region starting on Friday
with the chance of precipitation lingering into the weekend. Overall
the weather will continue to be quite active during the long term
period with periods of showers and thunderstorms. Highs throughout
the period will range from the 60s to 70s with lows in the 40s for
the most part.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

An area of low pressure centered in southeast North Dakota with a
frontal boundary extending southeast into southern Minnesota will
lift north and east tonight into Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms
were expanding across the region late this evening, and that will
continue overnight. Ceilings will gradually lower overnight into
Tuesday as moisture increases. The showers/storms will continue into
Tuesday, especially over the eastern half of the Northland Tuesday
afternoon into the evening. Ceilings may drop to IFR in spots on
Tuesday, especially for areas around Lake Superior.

The wind will be on the increase tonight, especially around Lake
Superior where gusts over 30 knots will develop. The wind will
decrease later Tuesday but more so Tuesday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  51  47  63 /  70  80  50  20
INL  52  61  49  60 /  60  80  60  50
BRD  57  71  51  64 /  80  70  20  30
HYR  55  72  53  70 /  70  80  60  30
ASX  51  64  49  67 /  50  80  70  20

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Wednesday for LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Graning
AVIATION...Melde/LE


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