Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 051510
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
910 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR/RAP/DLH WRF ALL POINT TO MINIMAL SNOW
TODAY. BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS/SATELLITE HAVE LOWERED
POPS CONSIDERABLY THIS MORNING. DID PLACE SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING. CLOUDS
ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING/HOLES OPENING UP WHICH WOULD AFFECT
POPS/QPF/WEATHER. MADE SOME OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TODAY IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES
EAST TODAY INTO MINNESOTA. WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA AND THE SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO PERHAPS SOME
ISOLATED ONE INCH AMOUNTS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE TWENTIES.

LIGHT SNOW WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
THIS EVENING...THEN IT WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE FORCING MOVES
EAST. LOWS WILL DROP TO 10 TO 18 DEGREES.

A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA ON SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF MAINLY FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO 0C TO +1C OVER THE BRAINERD
LAKES REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION
IN PLACE SO THERE WILL NOT BE VERY MUCH MIXING. DESPITE THE LIMITING
MIXING...WE DO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO 30 TO 34 OVER THE
BRAINERD LAKES REGION...BUT ONLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S NORTHEAST
OF THE WARM FRONT IN THE ARROWHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING AT MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
FAVORS FREQUENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORMS ON THE HORIZON. TEMPERATURES MILD SUNDAY
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THEN
COLDER THROUGH THE WEEK AS ARCTIC AIR JUST TO THE NORTH ATTEMPTS TO
BREAK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING NOT AS
COLD FOR MID-WEEK AS PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD ANTICIPATED...BUT THE
ARCTIC AIR FINALLY BREAKS THROUGH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN
THE WEEK. THIS IS NOT TO SAY TEMPS WILL BE WARM BY ANY MEANS...STILL
EXPECTING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MID WEEK AND THEN COLDER LATE
WEEK...BUT JUST NOT AS COLD AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE ARE
STILL VARIOUS DIFFERENCES INTO HOW THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT THESE DIFFERENCES WILL NOT MAKE MUCH OF A
DIFFERENCE WHEN IT COMES TO SENSIBLE WEATHER. AHEAD OF THE LOW A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...COMING TO A STOP OVER THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
WHICH WILL RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THIS REGION AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LOW. COMBINED WITH EASTERLY WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND THIS COULD RESULT IN LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...THOUGH LAKE/AIR TEMP DIFFERENCE
WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE. OVERNIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL
BE AROUND ONE TO THREE INCHES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO
THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD.

SUNDAY WILL BE WARM WITH SOME LOCATIONS WELL INTO THE MID
30S...MAINLY IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE A POSSIBLE DRY SLOT OVER
THE REGION MAY DELAY PRECIP UNTIL THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME
PRECIP MAY BEGIN OR CHANGE OVER TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SUCH AS IN
THE SAINT CROIX RIVER VALLEY INTO THE HAYWARD LAKES REGION...BUT
THINK THAT ONCE THE BETTER LARGE-SCALE LIFT ARRIVES PRECIP QUICKLY
CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW. MOST SNOWFALL LOOKS TO FALL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD TOTALS IN THE ONE TO
THREE INCH RANGE...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO
POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS WINDS TURN NORTHEASTERLY WITH THE
PASSING OF THE SFC LOW FROM NW MN TO EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
LOW WITH LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW. WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE FRESH SNOW. SNOW ENDS WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.

THROUGH THE MID WEEK COLD AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH RESULTING IN
POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST TIMES OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD WITH LOWS FALLING TO 10 BELOW ZERO TO NEAR ZERO.
/NOTE THAT THIS FORECAST PERIOD GOES THROUGH THURSDAY AND EVEN
COLDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT./ ANOTHER WEAK
CLIPPER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH FOR ANY PARTICULAR TIME...WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT IN ANY CASE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK/BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF THE INCOMING CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SNOW EXPECTED AS THE LOW ARRIVES TODAY...WITH SOME SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE INDICATING AN EVEN SLOWER PROGRESSION THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. WITH LIGHT NATURE OF PRECIP VISIBILITY SHOULD BE MVFR
THROUGH MOST SNOWFALL...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE VERY BRIEF PERIODS
OF IFR VISIBILITY WILL OCCUR. CEILINGS WILL FALL THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A STUBBORN DECK OF MVFR
STRATUS LIKELY REMAINING IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. WINDS LIGHT OUT OF
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER...THEN BECOMING WESTERLY TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  25  15  29  21 /  50  60  10  40
INL  24  10  26  21 /  20  20  30  50
BRD  26  12  33  24 /  20  20  10  30
HYR  24  17  31  22 /  50  60  10  30
ASX  27  19  31  23 /  50  60  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM



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