Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 262358
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
658 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD TODAY AND TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN
FALL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL VALUES TONIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING THE
UPPER 30S IN A FEW SPOTS...THEN WARMING UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NO PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...THOUGH SOME
GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING A FAINT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN NORTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...BASICALLY BEMIDJI TO BRAINERD AND SOUTH...BUT NOT VERY
CONFIDENT IN THESE SOLUTIONS.

TONIGHT...ANOTHER COOL AND CLEAR NIGHT WITH WIND NEARLY CALM. LEANED
TOWARDS MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AS IT TENDS TO PERFORMS WELL IN THESE
SITUATIONS. AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST
WHILE A LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN OUT
OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AS THIS SHIFT IN SYNOPTIC FEATURES OCCURS...A
NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL DEVELOP DUE TO THE CLEAR SKIES AND RAPID
COOLING...THUS SHIELDING US FROM THE SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WHICH WILL
BEGIN TO BE ADVECTED IN ALOFT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

THURSDAY...WARMER WITH INCREASING CLOUDS MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2.
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. DESPITE THE CLOUDS
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO THE LOW TO MID 70S...EXCEPT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKE AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE ACROSS EAST-
CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE IN THE DAY...BASICALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN
MINNESOTA. LARGE-SCALE LIFT IS NOT STRONG BESIDES SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION AT LOW/MID LEVELS...BUT DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO SUPPORT ANY RAIN MAKING IT TO THE
GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE NORTHLAND WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH SEASONALLY NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER. A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT
OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY. THE LATEST
GFS/GEM/ECMWF TRACKS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TRACK
WILL BE THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA OR NORTHERN IOWA...AND THEN INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS TRACK KEEPS MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED PCPN
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE
FORECAST AREA COULD BE AFFECTED BY LIGHT RAIN AND SOME THUNDER
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THERE WILL ALSO BE AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA
AND NW ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND NE MINNESOTA WILL BE
UNDER WARM NW FLOW. THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE NW FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. THE
GFS/ECMWF/NAM12 ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. I PROVIDED LOW PCPN CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THINK THERE MAY BE SOME INITIAL DIFFICULTY OVERCOMING THE CAP FROM
THE WARM FLOW. THE CHANCES WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES AND THE CAP COULD BE OVERCOME.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF SATURDAY AND HELP KEEP THE NORTHLAND DRY FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN LATE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A WARMING TREND TO THE NORTHLAND. TEMPERATURES
COULD BUILD TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. A
TROUGH COULD BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO NE MINNESOTA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING. WINDS SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH AT KINL AND KBRD TO
KEEP FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER ALL OTHER TERMINALS HAVE A THREAT
OF FOG FORMATION TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT KHYR FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP DUE TO THE 18Z NAM GUIDANCE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD AND 12Z NAM
MOS. AS A RESULT BROUGHT VISBY DOWN TO MVFR STARTING AT 09Z. LESS
CONFIDENT IN KDLH AND KHIB...SO HINTED AT FOG FORMATION IN BOTH OF
THESE LOCATIONS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE EVALUATING THINGS AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES.

WINDS WILL PICK UP TOMORROW MORNING...BUT REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECTING SOME MID CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KINL DUE TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  44  74  57  72 /   0  10  10  10
INL  45  77  56  79 /   0  10   0  30
BRD  50  75  60  76 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  40  75  59  73 /   0  10  10  30
ASX  43  77  58  74 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...WL


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