Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 252107
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
407 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Large winter system continues to bring heavy snowfall to
  northeast and north-central Minnesota, with a wintry mix
  building into northwest Wisconsin.

- The heaviest additional snowfall is expected in northeast
  Minnesota tonight and into Tuesday morning.

- Freezing drizzle and/or rain beginning tonight and lasting
  into early Tuesday morning may (40% chance) bring around or
  less than a tenth of an inch of ice accumulation to the
  Interstate 35 corridor in Minnesota, including the Twin Ports,
  and across Douglas to Ashland Counties and into Burnett County
  in northwest Wisconsin. A colder air mass lingering tonight
  over the Twin Ports though would result in less of this ice
  accumulation and snowfall rates approaching 1 inch per hour
  for the morning commute and additional heavy snowfall tomorrow
  morning.

- More localized and shorter-duration snow showers are expected to
  bring another round of light snowfall to the area Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Deep troughing over the Northern Plains and a deepening surface
to mid-level low pressure in the Central Plains keeps multiple
waves of heavy snowfall lifting into the Upper Midwest this
evening and will continue into tonight.

For the blizzard conditions on the North Shore over the next few
hours, an area of heavy snowfall over northwest Wisconsin lifts
northward by 4-5 PM this evening to combine with observed
easterly winds gusting 30-40 mph. While confidence on the
coverage of whiteout conditions has slowly decreased over the
least few forecast cycles, impacts to travel may still occur
though mid-evening today so the Blizzard Warnings persist, but
may be able to be downgraded in future forecast updates after
the conditions improve later today.

Warm air around 850 mb is progged from 12Z/25 guidance to wrap
into the St Croix River valley region around 00Z this evening.
The expectation with the current forecast package shows a stripe
of ice accumulation along the North Shore and into the Interstate
35 corridor late tonight through early Tuesday morning. For
this concern of a tenth of ice accumulation overnight and
additional light to moderate snowfall on Tuesday, Advisories
were hoisted this afternoon after the Winter Storm Warnings
were expired for NW WI and in Pine County. A point of forecast
uncertainty though is that latest high res deterministic model
guidance has kept the warmer air for tonight just over the
stateline into Wisconsin so there is only moderate confidence
in the ice and snowfall amount forecast for east-central
Minnesota and the I-35 as losing the wintry mix would add more
snowfall back to the forecast for early Tuesday morning. If that
cooler forecast for the MN/WI stateline does come to fruition,
then another few inches of snowfall on top of the current
forecast would likely occur early Tuesday morning. This cooler
pattern would then result in disruptions to the Tuesday morning
commute as the highest snowfall rates from this cooler solution
would favor 3/4-1" per hour as the windy conditions persist.

Other parts of north-central and northeast Minnesota further
west of the stateline have very high probability (> 80% chance)
of remaining all snowfall tonight and into early Tuesday morning.

For the latest forecast for your area see:
weather.gov/forecastpoints and for the latest snowfall forecast:
weather.gov/dlh/winter

Westerly flow builds into the area Tuesday night into Wednesday
as the upper low pressure center ushers in a cold air advection
routine, but with much less widespread moisture. There is a 40
to 60% chance of additional localized light to moderate snow
showers on Wednesday, which will add additional one to two
inches of snowfall to the totals observed today and into
Tuesday. This will be a period of colder than normal
temperatures under the cold air advected into the region through
Thursday. There are lesser snow chances by Thursday as a mid to
upper- level ridge axis moves overhead to decrease the
available moisture over the region.

Ensemble cluster solutions point towards a larger scale weather
pattern setting up over the central US for Friday and into the
weekend that favors near- normal temperatures and two possible
(40% chance) clipper systems moving through the Northland.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 629 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Poor flight conditions today with LIFR frequently occurring in
snow and eventually fzra this afternoon for the eastern TAF
sites. I do expect a wide range of conditions oscillating from
VFR to LIFR and back with the banded nature of the precipitation
with this large winter storm. I left the TAFs towards the lower
end of flight cats and ignored the VFR as I believe that any VFR
will be short-lived. There may be periodic fzdz between breaks
in snow bands. Winds will be out of the east and gust to 25 to
30 knots giving blowing snow too. Accumulating snow expected at
all TAF sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Easterly winds this afternoon increase in speed and coverage
into this evening, with Gale Warnings remaining in effect
through Tuesday. Winds shift northeasterly tonight in the
continued gale conditions. Large wave heights from 8 to 12 wave
feet linger into Tuesday afternoon before slowly decreasing
Tuesday evening, but high energy swell against the South Shore
and in the Apostles is likely into Wednesday. Expect continued
gusty winds into Wednesday as the deep low pressure system
responsible for these conditions lifts northward and hazardous
conditions persist into mid to late this week.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MNZ010>012-018-
     019-025-026-033>037.
     Blizzard Warning until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MNZ020-021.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MNZ038.
WI...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for WIZ001.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for WIZ002-003-
     006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Tuesday for LSZ121-148.
     Gale Warning until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for LSZ140>143.
     Gale Warning until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for LSZ144-145.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ146-
     147-150.
     Gale Warning until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for LSZ146-147-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NLy
AVIATION...PA
MARINE...NLy


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