Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 260843 AAA
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
343 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Large winter system continues to bring heavy snow and mixed
  precipitation to the Northland through this afternoon.

- Freezing rain chances over portions of the I-35 corridor and
  northwest Wisconsin have increased (60-100%) as have ice
  amounts (trace up to 0.35") before 10 AM this morning.

- Snow showers, with occasional visibility of less than 1 mile,
  are forecast Wednesday and Wednesday evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Freezing rain chances have increased early this morning over
portions of the I-35 corridor from Pine City to Duluth, up the
North Shore to Silver Bay, and east across northwest Wisconsin
to WI-13 including Solon Springs, Drummond, Spooner, and Cable.
The likelihood of freezing rain over these areas is now 60 to
100%. Ice accumulation of a trace up to 35 hundredths of an inch
are forecast between now and 10 AM. The greatest ice
accumulation will be from near Hinckley and Sandstone to
Dairyland to Solon Springs and Gordon to near Drummond.

With the increased risk of significant icing (greater than one-
quarter inch) and additional snowfall late this morning through
the afternoon, we have upgraded Pine and Bayfield counties to a
Winter Storm Warning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Deep troughing over the Northern Plains and a deepening surface
to mid-level low pressure in the Central Plains keeps multiple
waves of heavy snowfall lifting into the Upper Midwest this
evening and will continue into tonight.

For the blizzard conditions on the North Shore over the next few
hours, an area of heavy snowfall over northwest Wisconsin lifts
northward by 4-5 PM this evening to combine with observed
easterly winds gusting 30-40 mph. While confidence on the
coverage of whiteout conditions has slowly decreased over the
least few forecast cycles, impacts to travel may still occur
though mid-evening today so the Blizzard Warnings persist, but
may be able to be downgraded in future forecast updates after
the conditions improve later today.

Warm air around 850 mb is progged from 12Z/25 guidance to wrap
into the St Croix River valley region around 00Z this evening.
The expectation with the current forecast package shows a stripe
of ice accumulation along the North Shore and into the Interstate
35 corridor late tonight through early Tuesday morning. For
this concern of a tenth of ice accumulation overnight and
additional light to moderate snowfall on Tuesday, Advisories
were hoisted this afternoon after the Winter Storm Warnings
were expired for NW WI and in Pine County. A point of forecast
uncertainty though is that latest high res deterministic model
guidance has kept the warmer air for tonight just over the
stateline into Wisconsin so there is only moderate confidence
in the ice and snowfall amount forecast for east-central
Minnesota and the I-35 as losing the wintry mix would add more
snowfall back to the forecast for early Tuesday morning. If that
cooler forecast for the MN/WI stateline does come to fruition,
then another few inches of snowfall on top of the current
forecast would likely occur early Tuesday morning. This cooler
pattern would then result in disruptions to the Tuesday morning
commute as the highest snowfall rates from this cooler solution
would favor 3/4-1" per hour as the windy conditions persist.

Other parts of north-central and northeast Minnesota further
west of the stateline have very high probability (> 80% chance)
of remaining all snowfall tonight and into early Tuesday morning.

For the latest forecast for your area see:
weather.gov/forecastpoints and for the latest snowfall forecast:
weather.gov/dlh/winter

Westerly flow builds into the area Tuesday night into Wednesday
as the upper low pressure center ushers in a cold air advection
routine, but with much less widespread moisture. There is a 40
to 60% chance of additional localized light to moderate snow
showers on Wednesday, which will add additional one to two
inches of snowfall to the totals observed today and into
Tuesday. This will be a period of colder than normal
temperatures under the cold air advected into the region through
Thursday. There are lesser snow chances by Thursday as a mid to
upper- level ridge axis moves overhead to decrease the
available moisture over the region.

Ensemble cluster solutions point towards a larger scale weather
pattern setting up over the central US for Friday and into the
weekend that favors near- normal temperatures and two possible
(40% chance) clipper systems moving through the Northland.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

IFR or lower flight cats expected the first 18 hours of the TAF
forecast in mainly snow though a wintry mix too with improving
flight cats afterwards. The low pressure that has been
lingering for days will finally move north through the Northland
and over Lake Superior in the next 24 hours causing winds to
switch directions and vary in speed quite a bit over relatively
small areas.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Easterly winds this afternoon increase in speed and coverage
into this evening, with Gale Warnings remaining in effect
through Tuesday. Winds shift northeasterly tonight in the
continued gale conditions. Large wave heights from 8 to 12 wave
feet linger into Tuesday afternoon before slowly decreasing
Tuesday evening, but high energy swell against the South Shore
and in the Apostles is likely into Wednesday. Expect continued
gusty winds into Wednesday as the deep low pressure system
responsible for these conditions lifts northward and hazardous
conditions persist into mid to late this week.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038.
WI...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001-
     002.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for WIZ003-
     006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ121-
     148.
     Gale Warning until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for LSZ140>143.
     Gale Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ144>147-150.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Huyck
DISCUSSION...NLy
AVIATION...Wolfe
MARINE...NLy


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