Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 012023
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
323 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 1930Z. CLOUDS
COVERED A PORTION OF THE REGION THANKS TO THE PINEAPPLE EXPRESS
FEEDING PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WAS LIFTING NEWD THROUGH EASTERN SD AND GENERATING SOME
SHOWERS INTO WEST CENTRAL MN WITH AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO REACH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 02Z.
HOWEVER...PLENTY OF DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE ACTIVITY
IN CHECK. HAVE SOME SMALL POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE ITS
EXPECTED TO HANG TOGETHER THIS EVENING. A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES UP THE WEST SIDE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT`S CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE
OFFERING DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FOR TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY STORMS
AND THEIR QPF. TRIED TO BLEND WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR POPS/QPF
LATE TONIGHT.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. EVEN THE HIRES MODELS ARE
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME TRYING TO RESOLVE WHERE AND WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT THE AREA. REGARDLESS...THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ON ITS NEWD TRAJECTORY AND WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY
NW WI. HAVE SOME LOW POPS ELSEWHERE AS ARW MODEL HAS SOME ACTIVITY
NEARBY. USED A BLENDED APPROACH FOR WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE NORTHLAND TO THE EAST WED
NIGHT/THUR MORNING AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS LINGERING S/W WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NW WI THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS UNDER THE WARM UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND
LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE A S/W LIFTS NEWD ALONG THE WRN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND WRN MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO WRN ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING. A TRAILING FRONT SOUTH OF
THE SHORT WAVE/SFC LOW WILL SLIDE EWD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND DURING
THIS TIME AND PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND PHASE WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND ALLOW THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE PARENT UPPER LOW WITH THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY STRONG
PUSH OF COLD AIR TO INFILTRATE THE REGION GOING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. THE DRY AND COOL AIR SHOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES TO A
MINIMUM...BUT OVERCAST CLOUD COVER IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S. A GRADUAL COOL DOWN WILL
BEGIN ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80...AND INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND 70S ON MONDAY. MORNING LOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DROP
INTO THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE EWD THROUGH SRN MN INTO WI
TONIGHT AND TRIGGER A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A WEAK STORM
AROUND THE HYR REGION IN THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH/SE WITH A E/NE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR IMPACTING DLH WED
MORNING. PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM AROUND THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO WED MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
BY LATE WED MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  65  80  63  75 /  20  20  20  10
INL  56  85  64  87 /  20  20  10  10
BRD  65  83  65  85 /  10  10  10  10
HYR  65  83  64  84 /  20  30  20  10
ASX  62  82  60  83 /  10  30  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...TENTINGER



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