Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDLH 271727
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1227 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATED TEMPERATURES TO REPRESENT CURRENT READINGS. AT 1100
AM...MULTIPLE LOCATIONS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WERE ALREADY IN THE
UPPER 70S WITH A DOWN SLOPE WIND. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WERE COMMON.

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY. LATEST BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND HIGH RES SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SHOWS SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR SHORT-LIVED THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY DURING THE
200 PM TO 700 PM WINDOW. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND THREAT FOR
STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER UPPER MICHIGAN WITH A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF RAIN OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.  THIS SYSTEM IS SLOWLY
EJECTING OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING THE CWA WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING.  A WEAK TROUGH AXIS WILL
EXTEND BACK ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  WITH THE STRONG SUNSHINE
AND DEEP MIXING EXPECTED TODAY HIGHS SHOULD GET UP CLOSE TO 80
DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TONIGHT TO ALSO BE WARM...WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION SETTING UP OVER THE AREA AND GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUD
COVER.  LOW SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.  LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY A WAVE OF THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH A SURGE
OF SHOWER AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THERE WILL BE MORE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS POTENTIAL.  THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE MY
SOUTHERNMOST MINNESOTA COUNTIES TO RISE TO NEAR 80 ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONG PUSH OF MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH NWD INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM LATE THUR/THUR NIGHT WILL ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO BECOME PRIMED FOR PLENTY OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AROUND 1 INCH...WITH LOCALLY 2 TO 3 INCH REPORTS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE LATE
THURSDAY OVER N-CENTRAL MN AS THE WARM/UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE...COUPLED WITH A DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL LLJ AND STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY STABILIZE LATE THUR NIGHT
AND FRI MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN NW WI
ALONG THE TRAILING SFC BOUNDARY WITH THE UNSTABLE AIR TO THE SOUTH
AND SE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF AND SKIES
CLEARING OUT. BOTH SAT AND SUN MORNING WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR LATE
MAY WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. SUNDAY APPEARS
TO BE THE COLDEST MORNING WITH LOWER 30S POSSIBLE. ADDED THE MENTION
OF FROST TO THE FORECAST. WITH MUCH OF THE REGION ENTRENCHED IN THE
GROWING SEASON...A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EWD A SLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ADVECTING IN
OVER THE N-CENTRAL CONUS. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A COLD/STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS
DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WRN GREAT LAKES AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT MILD LATE THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
IN THE 60S AND 70S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE TEMPERATURES WILL DIVE INTO THE 50S AND
60S FOR HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...AND INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S FOR
LOWS. TEMPS WILL RECOVER BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
TERMINALS...HIB...DLH AND HYR THIS AFTERNOON. INCLUDED A VCTS AT
THOSE LOCATIONS AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT GREAT BECAUSE OF THE
SPOTTY NATURE OF THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL DIMINISH AROUND 01Z ALONG WITH THE WINDS. A LIGHT
EASTERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SOME IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THAT MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z AT DLH
AND HYR. FOR NOW...HAVE 6SM BR AT BOTH LOCATIONS WITH A SCT DECK OF
STRATUS POSSIBLE AT DULUTH. WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS AT BRD AT HYR AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  81  49  65  49 /  50  10  20  70
INL  79  48  72  49 /  10  40  80  70
BRD  82  56  77  59 /  20  20  50  70
HYR  80  51  80  60 /  50  10  20  70
ASX  82  44  69  53 /  60  10  20  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...KK






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.