Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 242158

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
358 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 356 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

A robust band of snow set up over northwest Wisconsin this
morning, but it is slowly disintegrating, with weakening radar
returns. The radar has shown pretty robust lake effect snow
showers over Douglas and Bayfield county today, and the visibility
at Solon Springs dropped down to a mile and a half. Models are
indicating that frontogenesis with the band is weakening and
shifting southeast of the forecast area for the rest of the
afternoon and this evening. Snowfall reports so far this afternoon
have been under performing under the band as well, with no more
than 1.5 to 3 inches so far. Road reports from northwest Wisconsin
show no worse than slippery stretches as well. Thus, have down
graded the winter storm warnings to an Advisory for Ashland, Price
and Sawyer counties, but due to the fairly robust lake effect
bands have kept Iron county going for the remainder of the
warning. An advisory remains in effect for Bayfield and Burnett.
Snowfall amounts for the rest of the afternoon and night should
range from 2 to 4 inches, with more possible in the higher terrain
of Iron county around Hurley depending on the lake effect bands
that move across that area. Lake effect should continue into
Saturday morning, before diminishing as dry air moves in to weaken
the snow showers. Lows overnight tonight should fall into the
single digits to lower teens as the cirrus is departing and cold
air is moving into the area on the heels of the storm. Saturday
should have at least a short period of clear/nearly clear skies,
with high temperatures in the 20s to around 30. It might feel cold
due to our recent stretch of warm temperatures, but it should
otherwise be a nice day for February.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 356 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

The weekend ends with a clipper system bringing 1-2" of snow to much
of the Northland, then warmer into the beginning of the work week as
the weather pattern shifts from northwest to southwest. Tuesday into
Wednesday a more organized low looks to develop in the Great Plains
and lift northeast towards the upper Great Lakes, but there still
remains considerable spread in solutions across models and their
ensembles. Precipitation appears likely across the Northland, but
when exactly, how much, and in what form (rain or snow) is a tough
call. Late in the week into the weekend northwest flow resumes with
a series of clippers bringing light snow and cooler temperatures.
Generally mild to near normal temperatures through the work week
with highs in the mid 20s to low 30s most days, except Monday and
Tuesday when highs may approach 40 in parts of northwest Wisconsin.

Saturday into Sunday the clipper-like mid-level shortwave trough
moving from west to east across the northern Great Plains into the
upper Midwest looks to bring a quick round of light snowfall to
parts of the region. Based on the latest guidance precipitation
chances and amounts were raised slightly, with 1-2" possible across
a large swath of NE Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Given the
fast flow aloft, though, this storm isn`t likely to bring much more
than 2" of snow to a large area. Most of the snow looks to fall
early Sunday morning, ending by mid-day from west to east.

Monday through Wednesday looks to be milder as the synoptic scale
flow aloft changes from northwest to southwest flow in response to a
longwave mid/upper level wave deepening over the Great Basin region
into the Great Plains. A mid-level shortwave trough ejects out of
the Rockies into the Great Plains Tuesday leading to a resultant
surface low deepening, but the exact timing/track of this low is
tough to discern at this point because of the wide variation in
model solutions. Generally this pattern looks to favor precipitation
across the upper Midwest, but there are numerous challenges with
large-scale forcing, moisture, and temperatures (at the surface and
aloft) to make it worthwhile to make an attempt at a more detailed
forecast. Model consensus is for precipitation to begin as early as
late Monday, ending towards Wednesday morning with rain mixing with
snow at times.

Late week northwest flow resumes in the wake of the mid-week system
with colder temperatures and occasional chances for light snowfall.
Temperatures may finally fall to below normal by the weekend, ending
our long stretch of well above normal temperatures. (The day with an
average temperature below normal at Duluth was Feb 9.)

Beyond the 7-day, both the GFS and ECMWF support a very active west-
northwest flow leading to the possibility of several powerful to
impact the upper Midwest next weekend. While still a long ways out,
definitely something to keep an eye on given the very good agreement
with the 12z GFS/ECMWF. (Though the 06z GFS has a much less dynamic
solution with a fairly flat flow supporting a weaker parade-of-
clippers scenario continuing into the weekend.)


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1154 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

VFR conditions expected to prevail through the day across
northeast Minnesota with MVFR to IFR conditions at HYR in
northwest Wisconsin. Light to moderate snowfall will continue off
and on at HYR with MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities through
the evening, with improvement to VFR late tonight. At other sites
VFR ceilings today then the possibility for MVFR ceilings
overnight tonight, most likely at INL due to an area stratus
gradually approaching from the north. Otherwise increasing north
to north-northwest winds through the night, gusting over 20 knots
at times. Saturday morning any stratus should dissipate with skies
clearing and winds starting to diminish.


DLH   9  26  16  27 /  10   0  60  30
INL   4  23   5  21 /   0  20  20  10
BRD  10  32  18  31 /   0  10  40  30
HYR  12  28  18  33 /  50  10  40  40
ASX  14  29  18  32 /  90  40  40  40


WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for WIZ002-003-

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Saturday for WIZ004.



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