Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 270513
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1113 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 511 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

THE SKY HAS CLEARED OVER NW WI AND HAVE REMOVED CLOUD COVER THIS
EVENING. ALSO REMOVED POPS/WEATHER ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE WITH THE
CLEAR SKY. REST OF THE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

THE SHORT TERM WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER SITUATED IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS SLIDES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT... REACHING IOWA BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. MAIN FOCUS
FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE COLD TEMPS TONIGHT. DECIDED TO
NUDGE TEMPS DOWN A BIT... AS THE GEM REGIONAL GUIDANCE WHICH HAS
BEEN DOING WELL IN THESE RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENTS LATELY CAME IN
A BIT COLDER. HOWEVER... WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER TONIGHT...
WHICH WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS BELOW OR BRIEFLY TOUCHING ADVISORY
GUIDANCE. DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY AS
DURATION WILL BE SHORT AND VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL... BUT EXPECT
TEMPS TONIGHT TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS TO 20 BELOW... WITH
CHILLS OCCASIONALLY APPROACHING 20 TO 30 BELOW MAINLY AROUND 12Z.
TEMPS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY TOMORROW INTO THE TEENS ABOVE... AND
SKIES WILL BE SUNNY.

WINDS WILL BACK OVERNIGHT... BECOMING WESTERLY TOMORROW. THE
ORIENTATION OF THE WIND WILL LIKELY SHUT OFF THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW MACHINE ACROSS THE GOGEBIC RANGE... AS THE FETCH WILL NO
LONGER FLOW OVER THE SMALL AMOUNT OPEN WATER ALONG THE NORTH COAST
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. STILL EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS NW
WISCONSIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON... BUT NOTHING EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF
SNOWFALL AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

A SUBTLE MODERATING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES...WHICH HAVE MOSTLY BEEN RUNNING
10 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS...WILL REBOUND
TO ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD AND CLEAR WEATHER
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND WELL BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE SUNSHINE AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.
AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE CLOUDY. THE
GFS/SREF/NAM ARE SUGGESTING THERE COULD BE VERY LIGHT SNOW AS THIS
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING.

COLD NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE PASSING TROUGH...WHILE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT BECAUSE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.

A BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE ALL
INDICATING A COLORADO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT ENE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LOW COULD BRING A SURGE OF WARMER AND
MORE HUMID AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AT THIS TIME...THAT THE NORTHLAND WILL BE ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS COLORADO LOW AND THAT PARTS OF THE
NORTHLAND COULD GET ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL...PRIMARILY DURING THE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. SINCE THE
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...INCREASED THE PCPN CHANCES. THE
SE FORECAST AREA HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL. IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE ABLE TO PROVIDE ANY DETAILS ON
POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT OUR OFFICE WILL NEED TO FOCUS ON
THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE COMING DAYS.

ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE NORTHLAND LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLORADO LOW.
HOWEVER...THIS ARCTIC INTRUSION MAY BE BRIEF. THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE BOTH INDICATING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN US LATER IN THE WEEK...THEN BEGIN TO FLATTEN AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL US. THE CENTRAL US WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOME MORE ZONAL AND COULD SEE WARMER PACIFIC AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION. THEREFORE...THERE ARE EARLY SIGNS OF A SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP
LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...LOOK FOR VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -12  16  -3  19 /   0   0   0   0
INL -20  15  -7  21 /   0   0   0  20
BRD -15  16  -4  22 /   0   0   0  10
HYR -16  15  -8  20 /   0   0   0   0
ASX -10  18  -2  22 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...MCLOVIN
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GSF






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