Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 310913
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
413 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

A nearly stacked low over the Dakotas this morning will give the
northland another few days of wet and cool weather. early this
morning the surface low was centered over eastern north dakota.
thunderstorms developed north of a warm front that has been draped
over southern portions of the northland, from Detroit Lakes,
Brainerd, Hinckley to Siren. A strong low level jet developed
overnight. KDLH VAD wind profile showing 50 knots of wind at 3k
feet. As the storms moved north into more stable air they
decreased in intensity This front and jet will continue to help
fire up showers and storms today as the low becomes nearly
stationary and spins over North Dakota then slowly moves into
northern Minnesota tonight. Have kept storms only in north central
Wisconsin tonight as stability will be lacking to support storms
elsewhere.

a dry slot will work around the low and into the Brainerd Lakes
area this afternoon where once this next batch of showers and
storms over western MN move through will most likely be dry the
rest of the day and tonight.

East winds funneling down the lake have been very strong near
Lake Superior and especially in the Twin Ports. Winds have gusted
over 40 mph at the Duluth Airport. There has been a decreasing
trend the past few hours with the winds gusting to a bit over 30
mph.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Wednesday morning the strong low pressure system moving across the
area will move to over western Ontario, continuing off to the
northeast during the day and Wednesday night.  The accompanying cold
front will be exiting the eastern section of the forecast area
during the morning, with the higher chances for precipitation moving
off to the east.  However, on the southwest side of the system steep
low level lapse rates in the cold air advection will help produce
showers most of the day Wednesday and into Wednesday night before
coming to an end early Thursday.  The clouds and precipitation will
keep temperatures near to below normal both Wednesday and Thursday,
with highs only in the 60s most locations.  A brief break in the
action will be observed Thursday night, with ridging shifting across
the area to bring a chilly night with lows in the low-mid 40s. It
should be a good radiational cooling night, so some places will even
drop into the 30s.

Another fairly strong shortwave will dive into the area beginning on
Friday, which then gets caught up in the trend for cutting off and
stalling over the great lakes through the weekend. The approach of
this storm will bring warmer temperatures for Friday along with
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms and near normal
temperatures over next weekend.  Our next chance for dry weather
looks like it should be Tuesday of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

An area of low pressure centered in southeast North Dakota with a
frontal boundary extending southeast into southern Minnesota will
lift north and east tonight into Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms
were expanding across the region late this evening, and that will
continue overnight. Ceilings will gradually lower overnight into
Tuesday as moisture increases. The showers/storms will continue into
Tuesday, especially over the eastern half of the Northland Tuesday
afternoon into the evening. Ceilings may drop to IFR in spots on
Tuesday, especially for areas around Lake Superior.

The wind will be on the increase tonight, especially around Lake
Superior where gusts over 30 knots will develop. The wind will
decrease later Tuesday but more so Tuesday night.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  47  62  46 /  80  40  30  20
INL  61  49  60  46 /  80  60  60  50
BRD  71  51  63  47 /  70  10  20  10
HYR  72  53  68  47 /  80  70  20  10
ASX  64  49  67  47 /  80  80  20  20

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Wednesday for LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...Melde/LE



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