Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 220535
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1235 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Main concern for short term will be the dry conditions sunday

Current surface obs indicate mainly mostly sunny skies except for
mostly cloudy skies at the tip of the arrowhead. radar indicates
showers across that region. These showers will end by sunset as
the heating decreases.

The area of high pressure will continue to move east of the region
tonight and sunday. A stronger southerly flow will develop sunday
morning on the backside of the high. This will combine with low
relative humidity values of 17-25 percent to cause another day of
critical fire weather conditions across the same areas on sunday in
Northeast minnesota as today. Other areas will see near-critical
fire weather conditions on sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Upper level ridging will cover northwest Wisconsin Sunday night
while an upper trof moves into the Northern Plains. Meanwhile, a
frontal boundary will occur in the vicinity of the upper trof.
Models have slowed the onset of the rain in the forecast area to
after 06Z/1 AM Monday. Removed the mention of rain from Sunday
evening and lowered the pops a bit overnight to account for this
slower solution. On Monday, the frontal boundary moves into the
forecast area as the upper trof weakens a bit. Showers and
thunderstorms will form along and ahead of this front and move in a
northeast direction. Adjusted pops on Monday to reflect the slow
movement of the front/upper trof and have highest pops west, lower
pops east. The front continues slowly eastward Monday night and is
accompanied by another upper shortwave in the southwest flow aloft.
Showers and storms will continue and end gradually from west to east
overnight. Tuesday through Thursday finds the area under the
influence of a closed upper low that meanders from eastern
Saskatchewan to northwest Ontario. This keeps the region in an
unstable atmosphere as moisture keeps pumping into the region from
the south. As pieces of shortwave energy pass through the area,
showers and storms will sporadically develop and affect the forecast
area. There will be some breaks from the rain, but will be difficult
to time and have pops throughout. By Friday, the Ontario low
dissolves as another closed low organizes over Nebraska. This will
pump Gulf of Mexico moisture into the region for more showers and
storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun May 22 2016

VFR conditions are expected across the Northland
throughout the TAF period. Skies will generally be clear overnight
and into Sunday. By Sunday evening, there will likely be an increase
in clouds, as a cold front and low pressure system approach from the
west. We are anticipating the precipitation will hold off until
later Sunday Night and Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  76  55  72 /   0   0  30  60
INL  49  80  60  75 /   0  10  60  60
BRD  46  79  61  75 /   0  10  50  70
HYR  43  81  56  77 /   0   0  10  50
ASX  47  79  54  78 /   0   0  10  50

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Stewart
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...Melde/DAP


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