Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 230536
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1236 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1001 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Little change to the zones/grids for the remainder of the night,
as storms continue to develop in the central and eastern Dakotas.
Dropped temps a few degrees across the CWA, especially in the
eastern half of the CWA. Still looks like the main opportunity
for showers and thunderstorms will be on Monday and Monday Night.

UPDATE Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Updated to change fire weather watch to a red flag warning for
portions of northern Wisconsin on Monday and Monday Evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

One more fairly tranquil night is expected as broad southerly flow
continues. However, the eastern edge of richer moisture at the
925/850 mb levels will slowly translate eastward tonight and
Monday, which will support slowly increasing chances for
showers/tstorms from west to east, beginning late tonight in the
western sections of the DLH CWA.

The specifics of the forecast for late tonight/Monday are somewhat
uncertain because of the cumulative effects of convective
evolution. What we are confident is that high chances for
showers/tstorms will spread eastward during the day. The details
on afternoon placement and timing of redevelopment along the weak
frontal zone will be somewhat dependent on how long morning
showers/storms persist. This will also, of course, influence the
severe weather risk. Some of the latest hi-res model output seems
to suggest the best time for strongest storms in the Brainerd to
Grand Rapids to Highway 53 corridor in NW Wisconsin between 4-9
PM.

Ahead of the main low level moist axis on Monday,
Iron/Ashland/Price Counties will see one more day of dry
conditions and a potentially critical fire weather situation. We
have issued a fire weather watch for these areas after
coordination with the State of WI and WFO Green Bay.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

The cold front will be moving slowly through the forecast area
Monday night. Showers and thunderstorms will be found ahead of and
along the front. The rain will gradually end from west to east
overnight, but linger over the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin.
The front slowly crosses northwest Wisconsin and the Arrowhead
Tuesday morning and have lingered pops to account for the front. Dry
elsewhere with some surface ridging building into the area. There
are model differences Tuesday afternoon. The ECMWF/NAM/GEM have
additional storms in the afternoon with the passing of upper level
energy. However, the GFS is dry. Used a compromise for pops. Tuesday
night has the showers and storms quickly ending as ridging moves
down the North Shore. Have some isolated pops to account for model
differences Tuesday evening. After the recent rain, have added
patchy fog to account for the expected light wind. The surface
ridging prevails late Tuesday night and have removed pops. Model
differences become larger Wednesday afternoon and used a blended
approach to pops as pieces of shortwave energy lift northeastward
through the region. The warm, unstable airmass returns Wednesday
night through Saturday. A closed upper low along the North
Dakota/Canada border area will meander around this area. Have pops
for showers and storms throughout.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

VFR conditions will prevail across the Northland TAF
sites throughout the night, but the weather is expected to finally
give way to active weather on Monday. A frontal boundary moving
through the Dakotas will progress eastward across the region on
Monday and Monday Night. The front will bring scattered to numerous
thunderstorms, and the potential for some MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
Conditions will then improve again from west to east Monday Evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  75  55  75 /  20  70  60  20
INL  59  76  51  80 /  50  70  30  20
BRD  62  75  55  81 /  60  70  40  20
HYR  56  79  59  78 /  10  70  70  30
ASX  50  81  57  74 /  10  60  70  30

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for WIZ003-004-009.

MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
AVIATION...Melde/DAP


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