Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 011136
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
636 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

AT 400 AM...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S. A FEW
LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WERE IN THE LOWER 60S WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

THE FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE TRYING TO RESOLVE
VARIOUS PRECIPITATION EVENTS. THE SHOWERS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
ARROWHEAD EARLIER THIS MORNING WERE FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS GENERALLY FAVOR A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST FOR THE AREA
TODAY...ALTHOUGH WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SMALL POP ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH AND FAR SOUTH/SW DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT...AS A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
MN. THIS WEAK FEATURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SETTING THE STAGE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH.

IN TERMS OF SPECIFICS...TODAY SHOULD BE A GENERALLY DRY DAY. AGAIN
WE WILL CARRY SMALL POPS FAR NORTH AND SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH WEST WINDS.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN NUMBER...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND THE SOUTH. CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
CWA SHOULD SEE THE LEAST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THINK
SOME OF THE STORMS IN THE SOUTH COULD BE STRONG OVERNIGHT...AND
THERE COULD BE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AS WELL. THE PRIMARY THREAT
WOULD BE SOUTH OF A BRAINERD TO HAYWARD LINE...WITH HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ON SUNDAY...WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD...TWIN PORTS AND
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. LESSER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FURTHER WEST.
HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 70S IN THE ARROWHEAD TO AROUND 80 FURTHER SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

OVERALL A SEASONAL PATTERN FOR EARLY AUGUST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
PERHAPS ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS...A WELCOME RELIEF
TO THE PAST FEW WEEKS WHICH HAVE BEEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. SOME
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD MONDAY AND
PERHAPS TUESDAY...BUT OTHERWISE DRY FOR MOST THE NORTHLAND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LATER IN THE WEEK MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES...BUT
NOT VERY CONFIDENT GIVEN MODEL VARIABILITY AT THIS TIMEFRAME.

MON/TUES...STACKED LOW MEANDERING OVER HUDSON BAY WILL EVENTUALLY
DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO...WITH WIDESPREAD WEAK LARGE-
SCALE LIFT AROUND IT THAT MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS
EDGING INTO FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. THIS THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN GFS/GEFS/ECMWF ALL DEPICT SOME WEAK LIFT AT
LOW/MID LEVELS AND ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE COOL AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SUN/MON/TUES NIGHT COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS LOCATIONS AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

WED...A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS DRIFTS
EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION AT LOW LEVELS. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE...DEPENDING ON
HOW UPSTREAM CONVECTION EVOLVES. HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER...BUT
STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 70S RANGE. LOWS WED NIGHT WARMER DUE TO
CLOUD COVER AND WEAK WAA...IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

THURS/FRI/SAT...A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT HOW IT EVOLVES AS IT
MOVES EAST IS UNCERTAIN. ECMWF...WHICH HAS BEEN A BIT MORE
CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN...BRINGS THIS SYSTEM TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WHILE THE GFS DEPICTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA
RESULTING IN A DRIER SCENARIO FOR THE NORTHLAND AS PRECIP IS FORCED
SOUTH. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WHICH RESULTED IN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. SHOULD THE ECMWF SCENARIO
PLAY OUT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN EVENT DUE TO LITTLE INSTABILITY ALOFT. TEMPS SEASONABLE IN MOST
SCENERIES...AGAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWS MILD IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. INCREASING CLOUDS
LATE TODAY WITH TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
TOWARDS THE MORNING AND SCATTERED STRONGER STORMS ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA IN THE EVENING TOWARDS THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
NEITHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE FLIGHT
CONDITIONS...THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR CEILINGS TOWARDS THE
MORNING HOURS IF ANY SITES RECEIVE APPRECIABLE RAIN AMOUNTS...BUT
AT THIS POINT THAT LOOKS UNLIKELY.

BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 12 KTS GUSTING TO
NEAR 20 KTS AT TIMES...BECOMING NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  81  60  80  55 /  10  40  40   0
INL  79  51  76  50 /  20  50  30  10
BRD  85  58  82  54 /  20  20  20   0
HYR  82  57  81  52 /  10  40  40   0
ASX  81  59  81  55 /  10  40  50   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM


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