000
FXUS63 KDLH 140005
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
705 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND DURING THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND EARLY ON TUESDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AND POSSIBLY SOME CATEGORY CHANGES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013/

..SIGNIFICANT WARMING TUESDAY...
..INCREASED FIRE DANGER OVER BRAINERD LAKES REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

SHORT TERM...AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH 85/70H
FRONTOGENESIS...PER SPC MESOANALYSIS...IS MOVING ACROSS CRTL/ERN
WISC ZONES. LIGHT QPF REPORTED WITH THIS FEATURE TODAY. CLEARING
HAS MOVED INTO WRN CWA ALREADY AND SHOULD CONTINUE EAST THIS
EVENING.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS SUBSIDE AS BDRY LYR DECOUPLES AND SFC PRESS
GRADIENT RELAXES UPON PASSAGE OF EARLIER FRONTOGENESIS. MAY SEE
SOME BR DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED AT THIS POINT.

TOMORROW...OVERALL FCST HAS NOT CHANGED DRAMATICALLY. A STRONG
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE WRN
GT LAKES. EXPECT SATURATION TO DEEPEN AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM
FRONT. PRECIP WILL BE FAVORED OVER NRN HALF OF CWA BY AFTERNOON.
LOW LVL THETAE FIELDS SUGGEST MARINE LAYER WILL DOMINATE NEAR SHORE
LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE SIGNIFICANT WARM UP STILL EXPECTED AS 925
TEMPS REACH 23C-26C. COOLEST LOCATION WILL BE NEAR SHORE IN SRN
COOK COUNTY WITH ONSHORE FLOW. FIRE WEATHER STILL OF CONCERN AS
SFC TEMPS/WIND APPEAR LIKELY TO EXCEED CRITERIA HOWEVER RH VALUES
STILL WELL DEFINED. MDLS HAVE BEEN OVER PREDICTING MOISTURE IN LOW
LVLS RECENTLY. COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES YIELDS A
CONTINUATION OF CURRENT WATCH FOR NOW. IF AN UPGRADE IS
NEEDED...IT WOULD PRIMARILY BE FROM AROUND 19Z-02Z.

LONG TERM [TUESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY]...

THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING AS A A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. OTHERWISE...THE MID WEEK LOOKS DRY AND
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE TO POTENTIALLY WET AND STORMY
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT APPEARS LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND A ONE OR MORE WARM
FRONTS MAY LIFT THROUGH OR COME NEAR THE NORTHLAND. THE MOST ACTIVE
DAY MAY BE SUNDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE GIVING INDICATIONS THAT A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MINNESOTA OR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY WITH A WARM FRONT...WHICH
COULD BE RECIPE FOR SOME STRONG STORMS DEPENDING ON THE RIGHT
CONDITIONS.

AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

A BAND OR RAIN SHOWERS IS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT IN THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS. THE BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXIT THE REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH CLOUDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KFT AND
LITTLE TO NO VSBY RESTRICTION WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS. THE SSE WINDS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 12 TO
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP NEAR AND WEST OF
THE KHIB/KINL/KBRD AREAS. THE WINDS WILL THEN WEAKEN THIS EVENING
AND BECOME VERY LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF
FOG LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE KDLH AND KHYR AREAS WHERE I
HINTED AT THIS BY GIVING A TEMPO GROUP OF MVFR VSBY DUE TO BR. A
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION
LATE TOMORROW MORNING. IT COULD BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...MOSTLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  41  67  48  71 /  10  30  20   0
INL  43  76  45  69 /  10  50  30   0
BRD  47  86  49  74 /  10  20   0   0
HYR  42  81  49  75 /  10  20  20   0
ASX  42  71  48  71 /  20  30  30   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ025-033-034-036-038.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP