Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 241536 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1036 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS OF SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA. THEN TRIMMED RAIN PROBABILITIES FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WEST. AT MID MORNING THE COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE WEST AND WILL BE MOVING OVER NRN MN THIS AFTERNOON...AND
OVER NWRN WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
BE DELAYED...BUT DO EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE ALONG THE
FRONT IN EASTERN SECTIONS OF MN AND IN NWRN WI...BUT TRIMMED POPS
ESP IN ERN MN AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MID 80S MAY NOT BE
REACHED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 557 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

THE LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHLAND EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY
QUITE A BIT OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES EAST INTO MORE
STABLE AIR. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THOUGH DUE TO AN MCV SEEN IN
RADAR IMAGERY...BUT EVEN THIS MAY DIMINISH SOME AS IT MOVES TOWARD
OUR EASTERN WISCONSIN ZONES.

THE AMOUNT OF REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON IS IN
QUESTION. THE FRONT WAS NEAR KBDE THEN EXTENDED SSW INTO FAR
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS OF 11Z. WE DO EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THIS BOUNDARY CLEARS THE CWA BUT
THE LATEST SUGGESTS IT WILL BE ISOLATED. WE KEPT SCATTERED WORDING
FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND WENT DRY TOWARD THE BRAINERD
LAKES REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON SEVERE STORMS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT.

A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS HAS MOVED FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WAS
MOVING INTO MORE STABLE AIR. THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY REMAINED
FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA NORTH INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS OF THE
07Z SPC MESOANALYSIS. A LLJ SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THE
INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHOULD ALLOW DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO INCREASE AS WELL. WE EXPECT STRONG STORMS WITH A
SEVERE STORM OR TWO STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHLAND FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. MUCH OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION CAMS SUGGEST THE STORMS
WILL WEAKEN AS THEY CONTINUE EAST INTO FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS STILL WELL WEST AND WAS
LOCATED IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHLAND THIS MORNING AND SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE ARROWHEAD AND OUR EASTERN WISCONSIN ZONES. QUESTION
THEN TURNS TO REDEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. THE FRONT WILL BE FROM
NEAR CRANE LAKE INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MINNESOTA AT
18Z...THEN BE IN THE ARROWHEAD TO FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY 00Z SAT. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY
HIGH. THE MODELS DO FORECAST PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND 35 TO 40 KT
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE RAP/NAM/GFS ALL FORECAST PLENTY OF CLOUDS
THOUGH WHICH MAY KEEP SBCAPE/MLCAPE LOWER THAN FORECAST.

STORMS CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AND SHOULD MOVE
OUT BY 06Z.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE WARM AND MAINLY DRY. WE DO HAVE SOME CONCERN
WE WILL POP SOME THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS A WEAK TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THAT
AREA. HOWEVER...WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

A QUASI ZONAL FLOW IS SETTING UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PIECES OF ENERGY
EMBEDDED IN THIS FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH MN SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE.
LACKING GOOD MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND HAVE REMOVED. ON SUNDAY...A BIT STRONGER IMPULSE
MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN AND MAY GLANCE OFF THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA. HAVE LOW POPS THERE AS A RESULT. ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE GFS BEGINS TO SUFFER FROM GRIDSCALE/CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK AND HAVE IGNORED ITS SOLUTION. THE ECMWF HAS UPPER RIDING
BUILDING OVER THE AREA WITH THE SFC HIGH NEARBY. HOWEVER...THE GEM
IS ALSO SUFFERING A BIT FROM FEEDBACK. REGARDLESS...HAVE SOME POPS
OVER A PORTION OF THE REGION AS A BLEND. THE REGION IS BETWEEN
SYSTEMS ON MONDAY WITH A DEPARTING UPPER TROF TO THE EAST...AND A
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WITH SOME ENERGY
REACHING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. HAVE POPS
ALIGNED FOR THESE FEATURES. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FINDS THE
REGION AFFECTED BY A LARGE CUT OFF LOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

AN AREA OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THE OUTSET OF
THIS FORECAST. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO CLEAR THE TERMINALS BY 15Z.
SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST. GUSTY SFC WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  81  62  86  65 /  50  10  10   0
INL  81  57  86  59 /  50  10  10  10
BRD  85  59  87  62 /  20  10  10  10
HYR  82  60  86  60 /  80  20   0   0
ASX  83  62  86  61 /  70  30   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLC
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF


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