Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 020024
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
724 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...



UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

REMOVED THUNDER FROM EARLY EVENING MENTION AS MUCAPE AXIS
CONTINUES TO COLLAPSE SOUTH WITH PROGRESSION OF FRONTAL BDRY
LAYER. MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT IS THE EXTENT OF FOG AND WHETHER A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY. INITIAL PERUSAL OF RELEVANT
GUIDANCE....BUFR SNDGS/SFC COND PRESS DEFICITS/HRRR VIS SUGGEST AN
AREA FROM NORTH SHORE THROUGH TWIN PORTS AND ALONG I35 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH VERY ISOLATED WEAK STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THUR MORNING. WILL SEE ANOTHER BAND
OF SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH THUR AFTERNOON.

UPPER LEVEL S/W IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
THIS AFTERNOON AS A NEARLY CO-LOCATED SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT DRAGS
SLOWLY BEHIND THROUGH MN AND EVENTUALLY INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT. THE
BULK OF THE RAIN SEEN TODAY AND CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA IS STRATIFORM TYPE PRECIP AND MAINLY
BEING FORCED BY BROAD UVV FROM THE UPPER WAVE. HAVE HAD REPORTS OF A
THIRD TO A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL SINCE THIS MORNING...AND COULD SEE
AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER OF INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS EAST OF I-35 AND
INTO THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD. A SECOND LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
EVEN A FEW WEAK STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE WEST
FROM GRAND RAPIDS TO THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA. ALREADY SEEING
CONVECTIVE LOOKING CELLS ON THE DLH RADAR...AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER
STORMS WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING DEVELOP IN W-CENTRAL MN THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SFC FRONT IS ALIGNED N-S ACROSS WRN MN AND THE
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MATURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
WHERE STRONGER SFC HEATING WILL LEAD TO GREATER INSTABILITY AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW T-STORMS...MAINLY OVER NE MN. AS THE STORMS
INITIATE TO THE WEST AND MOVE EWD...THEY WILL ENCOUNTER A MORE
STABLE AIR MASS AND LIKELY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING.

AS THE RAINFALL MOVES EWD OUT OF THE AREA WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SFC WILL BUILD IN WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT ADDING TO THE
SUPPRESSIVE NATURE OF THE AIR MASS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
OVERALL...AND CALM IN SPOTS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEARLY
STEADY OR BEGINNING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S. THE NEARLY SATURATED SFC LAYER...CALM WINDS AND COOL TEMPS WILL
LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. VSBYS COULD
BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES.

THE NEXT UPPER S/W MOVES IN QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM FROM THE SW AND A SFC INVERTED TROUGH PUSHING NWD INTO SRN MN
THUR AFTERNOON. ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM S TO
N IN THE AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN MAINLY IMPACT THE ERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE...BUT A GOOD 5-8 DEG WARMER THAN TODAY. WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
CLOUD COVER AROUND DURING MOST OF THE DAY...BUT SHOULD BE A SLIGHTLY
THINNER LAYER OF CLOUDS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MIXING AND
STRONGER HEATING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS FOR THE STORM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME...INCLUDING SOME POTENTIAL FOR
THAT S WORD FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.  SURFACE LOW THAT
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND UP TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY.  THIS SYSTEM IS PART OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ON
FRIDAY THE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS A LOW AND BECOMES STACKED OVER
ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS GOING TO PRODUCE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS...COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT WE GET A FRESH SHOT OF COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE ZERO
TO 5 BELOW RANGE ALOFT.  THIS IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW FALLING
THROUGH THE AIR...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND GROUND
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD KEEP IT FROM ACCUMULATING
MOST LOCATIONS.  A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COOK
AND LAKE COUNTIES MAY GET SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...BUT THESE
SHOULD MELT QUICKLY.

OUR STACKED LOW LINGERS OVER ONTARIO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING SOME SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
GOING...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY.  THIS SYSTEM OOZES
FARTHER NORTHEAST AND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND WE SHOULD GET BACK
INTO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A WEAKEANING FRONTAL BDRY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WITH
A DECOUPLED BDRY LYR AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITY THIS EVENING. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN MOST RAEAS. PRELIMINARY DATA SUGGESTS THAT SITES WILL
BE MOST IMPACTED FROM 08Z-13Z. KINL SHOULD BE LESS PRONE TO
EXTENSIVE LOW VIS/CEILINGS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  48  61  45  49 /  20  30  60  50
INL  48  59  43  49 /  20  10  50  70
BRD  47  61  41  47 /  20  30  40  70
HYR  51  63  47  51 /  50  70  80  50
ASX  50  62  48  53 /  40  50  80  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...CANNON






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