Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FGUS73 KDLH 162228
ESFDLH
MNC001-017-021-031-035-061-071-075-115-137-WIC003-007-013-031-
051-099-113-129-DDHHMM-

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
428 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor, moderate, and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS, the probability of exceeding
that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than
HS, the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for Minor, Moderate, and Major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  02/19/2017 - 05/20/2017

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Prairie River
Taconite            10.0   12.0   13.0 :   8   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Mississippi River
Aitkin              13.0   15.0   18.0 :  87   48   62   35   25    9
Fort Ripley         10.0   12.5   26.0 :  92   48   31   18   <5   <5
:Snake River
Pine City            9.0   10.0   11.0 :  <5    8   <5   <5   <5   <5
:St. Louis River
Scanlon             10.5   11.0   13.0 :  12    7    7    6   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 02/19/2017 - 05/20/2017
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Prairie River
Taconite              6.8    7.1    7.9    8.5    9.1    9.8   10.5
:Mississippi River
Aitkin               11.6   12.3   14.1   15.8   18.0   19.7   21.1
Fort Ripley           9.7   10.2   10.5   11.6   13.3   14.7   15.4
:Snake River
Pine City             5.5    5.7    6.0    6.2    7.3    8.3    9.0
:St. Louis River
Scanlon               6.9    7.2    7.9    8.9    9.5   10.7   11.6

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 02/19/2017 - 05/20/2017
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Prairie River
Taconite              3.0    3.0    3.0    2.9    2.8    2.7    2.6
:Mississippi River
Aitkin                6.7    6.7    5.6    4.6    3.4    2.6    2.4
Fort Ripley           5.1    5.1    5.1    5.1    4.8    4.4    4.1
:Snake River
Pine City             3.6    3.6    3.5    3.3    3.2    3.2    3.2
:St. Louis River
Scanlon               3.6    3.6    3.6    3.5    3.4    3.3    3.2

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data, including current conditions of the river,
soil moisture, snow cover, and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of
temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities,
the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can
be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the
National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.

Visit our website www.weather.gov/dlh for more weather and water
information.

For additional information on stream flow conditions for USGS
locations please visit:

for Minnesota - https://waterdata.usgs.gov/mn/nwis/rt
for Wisconsin - https://waterdata.usgs.gov/wi/nwis/rt

For additional information on stream flow conditions at MN DNR
locations, please visit:

www.dnr.state.mn.us/waters/csg/index.html   -or-
climate.umn.edu/dow/weekly_stream_flow/stream_flow_weekly.asp.

For more information on climate outlooks please visit:
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

The next outlook will be issued March 2, 2017

$$

WFO Duluth



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