Flood Potential Outlook Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
000
FGUS73 KDLH 152037
ESFDLH
MNC001-017-021-031-035-061-071-075-115-137-WIC003-007-013-031-
051-099-113-129-DDHHMM-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Duluth MN
229 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 02/19/2024 - 05/19/2024
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Prairie River
Taconite 10.0 12.0 13.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Mississippi River
Aitkin 13.0 15.0 18.0 : 26 50 8 28 <5 7
Fort Ripley 10.5 12.5 26.0 : 22 39 <5 15 <5 <5
:St. Croix River
Danbury 7.0 8.5 10.0 : <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Snake River
Pine City 9.0 10.0 11.0 : <5 8 <5 5 <5 <5
:St. Louis River
Scanlon 10.5 11.0 13.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Nemadji River
Nemadji R nr Supe 24.0 26.0 28.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Tyler Forks
Mellen 9.0 10.0 12.0 : 18 34 10 24 <5 5
:Bad River
Odanah 16.0 18.0 20.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Odanah 8.5 9.5 10.5 : <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:South Kawishiwi
Ely 6.5 7.5 8.5 : <5 24 <5 9 <5 <5
:Little Fork River
Littefork 22.0 24.0 26.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Vermillion River
Crane Lake 14.0 16.0 18.0 : <5 12 <5 <5 <5 <5
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 02/19/2024 - 05/19/2024
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Prairie River
Taconite 4.2 4.5 5.2 6.3 7.0 8.1 8.5
:Mississippi River
Aitkin 8.4 8.6 9.2 11.2 13.1 14.7 15.4
Fort Ripley 6.4 6.9 7.6 8.6 10.3 11.0 12.1
:St. Croix River
Danbury 1.8 2.2 2.5 3.2 4.2 5.8 6.4
:Snake River
Pine City 4.5 4.8 5.5 6.0 7.1 8.2 8.6
:St. Louis River
Scanlon 5.2 5.4 6.2 7.0 7.9 8.7 9.8
:Nemadji River
Nemadji R nr Supe 9.3 11.0 12.8 14.8 18.6 22.2 22.8
:Tyler Forks
Mellen 5.3 5.5 6.3 6.9 7.9 10.0 10.8
:Bad River
Odanah 4.9 5.2 6.2 7.0 8.4 11.6 12.9
Odanah 3.3 3.4 3.8 4.4 5.6 7.1 7.7
:South Kawishiwi River
Ely 3.7 3.9 4.3 4.9 5.4 5.7 6.2
:Little Fork River
Littefork 4.9 5.3 5.8 7.0 8.8 11.0 12.4
:Vermillion River
Crane Lake 8.0 8.3 9.3 10.3 11.2 12.6 13.8
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 02/19/2024 - 05/19/2024
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Prairie River
Taconite 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8
:Mississippi River
Aitkin 6.7 6.6 5.8 5.1 3.7 2.9 2.5
Fort Ripley 5.4 5.3 5.1 4.9 4.5 4.1 3.8
:St. Croix River
Danbury 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8
:Snake River
Pine City 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0
:St. Louis River
Scanlon 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.3
:Nemadji River
Nemadji R nr Supe 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8
:Tyler Forks
Mellen 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1
:Bad River
Odanah 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3
Odanah 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0
:South Kawishiwi River
Ely 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1
:Little Fork River
Littefork 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1
:Vermillion River
Crane Lake 6.3 6.3 6.1 5.9 5.7 5.5 5.4
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.
Visit our web site weather.gov/dlh for more weather and water
information.
For additional information on stream flow conditions for USGS
locations please reference https://dashboard.waterdata.usgs.gov
For additional information on stream flow conditions at MNDNR sites
www.dnr.state.mn.us/waters/csg/index.html
or
www.climate.umn.edu/dow/weekly_stream_flow/stream_flow_weekly.asp
For more information on climate outlooks reference
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
The next outlook will be issued on February 29th, 2024.
$$