Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

000
FGUS73 KDLH 271827
ESFDLH
MNC001-017-021-031-035-061-071-075-115-137-WIC003-007-013-031-051-
099-113-129-281830-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
115 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

...SNOWMELT RUNOFF AND FLOODING POTENTIAL INCREASING ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...

THIS OUTLOOK COVERS THE DULUTH HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...WHICH
INCLUDES NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.  THE
AREA ENCOMPASSES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER HEADWATERS TO FT. RIPLEY...
LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE CONFLUENCE WITH THE CROW WING RIVER.
ADDITIONAL RIVER BASINS INCLUDED IN THIS OUTLOOK INCLUDE: THE ST.
LOUIS RIVER WITHIN THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DRAINAGE. THE SNAKE
RIVER WHICH FLOWS INTO THE ST. CROIX RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF PINE CITY.

AREAS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN CAN EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY APRIL 30 WHICH WILL LEAD
TO SNOWMELT AND RAPID RUNOFF OF MELT WATER. EXPECT GREATER THAN
NORMAL PONDING OF WATER IN POORLY DRAINED AREAS AS THE SNOW PACK
BEGINS TO MELT AND RELEASES ITS WATER CONTENT THIS WEEKEND. RAPID
RUNOFF WILL FILL DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS TO BANK FULL AS THE
WATER IS ROUTED TO LARGER STREAMS AND THEN THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.

THROUGH MONDAY APRIL 29TH...SNOWMELT WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF
INCREASING STREAMFLOW. WEATHER MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES ONLY MINIMAL
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR
WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT RAIN APPEARS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

PONDING OF WATER IN YARDS AND FIELDS WILL BE COMMON AS THE SOIL
REMAINS FROZEN.  THE SOIL WILL LIKELY THAW THE SAME TIME AS THE
SNOW MELTS WHICH WILL ALLOW A PORTION OF THE MELT WATER TO BE
ABSORBED INTO THE DEEPER LAYERS OF THE SOIL. RUNOFF WILL QUICKLY
FILL DITCHES...STREAMS AND CREEKS AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS ADJACENT TO
STREAMS MAY BECOME INUNDATED.

AS OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON...APRIL 27TH TWO FEET OF SNOW REMAINED IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SURROUNDING LAKE SUPERIOR. ALONG THE
NORTHSHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...2 FEET OF SNOW WAS COMMON. EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR AND ALONG HIGHWAY 61 THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

ON THE BAYFIELD PLATEAU AND THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA 10 TO 20 INCHES
OF SNOW WAS COMMON. WITH THE ONGOING WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON ALL CREEKS AND STREAMS OVER NORTHERN BAYFIELD
COUNTY THAT DRAIN INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND CHEQUAMEGON BAY.

IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THE BAD RIVER AND EAST BRANCH OF THE
MONTREAL RIVER HAVE DISPLAYED INCREASED FLOW WITH RECENT WARM
TEMPERATURES.  HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL INCREASES ARE EXPECTED ON THESE
WATERWAYS AS A DEEP...LATE SNOWPACK EXISTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF NORTHERN BAYFIELD AND IRON COUNTIES.

MAINSTEM RIVERS HAVE STARTED SHOWING STRONG RESPONSES TO SNOWMELT
RUNOFF THE POSSIBILITY OF BANK FULL FLOWS AT LOCATIONS ALONG
MISSISSIPPI WHERE FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/DLH FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS FOR USGS
LOCATIONS PLEASE REFERENCE
FOR MINNESOTA   WWW.WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/MN/NWIS/RT
FOR WISCONSIN   WWW.WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/WI/NWIS/RT

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS AT
MN DNR LOCATIONS...REFERENCE
WWW.DNR.STATE.MN.US/WATERS/CSG/INDEX.HTML
OR
CLIMATE.UMN.EDU/DOW/WEEKLY_STREAM_FLOW/STREAM_FLOW_WEEKLY.ASP

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON CLIMATE OUTLOOKS REFERENCE
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

$$