Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FGUS73 KDLH 061956
ESFDLH
MNC001-017-021-031-035-061-071-075-115-137-WIC003-007-013-031-
051-099-113-129-DDHHMM-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
156 PM CST THU MAR 06 2014

...PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID PERIOD:  3/10/2014 - 6/8/2014

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:PRAIRIE RIVER

:SNAKE RIVER
PINE CITY            9.0   10.0   11.0 :  <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AITKIN              12.0   15.0   18.0 :  72   49   36   23    6   <5
FORT RIPLEY         10.0   12.5   26.0 :  66   38   16   13   <5   <5
:ST. LOUIS RIVER
SCANLON             10.5   11.0   13.0 :  23   10   13    9   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                               CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                  AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 3/10/2014 - 6/8/2014
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:SNAKE RIVER
PINE CITY             6.3    6.6    7.0    7.5    8.1    8.7    9.1
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AITKIN               10.3   10.7   11.8   14.3   16.2   17.4   18.8
FORT RIPLEY           8.5    8.8    9.7   10.9   12.1   13.4   13.7
:ST. LOUIS RIVER
SCANLON               7.2    7.6    8.3    9.1   10.4   11.9   12.6

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE
VALID TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 3/10/2014 - 6/8/2014
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:SNAKE RIVER
PINE CITY             2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AITKIN                1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.5    1.5
FORT RIPLEY           3.3    3.3    3.3    3.3    3.3    3.3    3.3
:ST. LOUIS RIVER
SCANLON               3.1    3.1    3.1    3.0    2.8    2.8    2.8

...SNOW COVER...
SNOW DEPTH AND WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOW IS A CRITICAL COMPONENT TO
SPRING SNOW MELT FLOODING. AT THIS TIME...SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS THE AREA
RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 INCHES ALONG THE RAINY RIVER...19 TO 26 INCHES IN
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER HEADWATERS OF LEECH AND CASS LAKES...29 TO 34
INCHES WITHIN THE ST. LOUIS RIVER BASIN...25 TO 29 INCHES IN THE
SNAKE RIVER BASIN...AND 26 TO 33 INCHES IN THE UPPER ST. CROIX AND
CHIPPEWA RIVER BASINS. CURRENT SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT EXISTING WITHIN
THE SNOW PACK RANGE FROM AROUND 5 INCHES IN THE CHIPPEWA AND ST.
CROIX RIVER BASINS...3 TO 5 INCHES IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BASIN...4
TO 5.5 INCHES IN THE ST. LOUIS RIVER BASIN...4 TO 5 INCHES IN THE
RAINY RIVER BASIN...AND 4 TO 6 INCHES IN THE LAKE SUPERIOR BASIN.

...SOIL CONDITIONS AND FROST DEPTHS...
CURRENT SOIL CONDITIONS ARE MOIST WITH NORMAL FROST LEVELS.
PRECIPITATION WAS 6 TO 8 INCHES BELOW NORMAL BETWEEN JULY THROUGH
AUGUST...THEN OCTOBER SAW A GOOD RECOVERY PRIOR TO FREEZE UP. THE
SNOW ACCUMULATION PERIOD STARTED DURING LATE NOVEMBER AND AREAS OF
HEAVY SNOW SINCE THEN HAVE INSULATED THE SOIL. A DEEP FROST OF 5 TO 7
FEET WAS FOUND UNDER PAVEMENT WHERE SNOW HAS BEEN CLEARED.
HOWEVER...UNDER SNOW AND IN FORESTED AREAS...FROST DEPTHS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 14 TO 24 INCHES.

...RIVER CONDITIONS...
ALL RIVERS IN THE DULUTH HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA REMAIN ICE COVERED.

...WEATHER OUTLOOKS...
SHORT RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS SHOW A FEW CHANCES OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS. LESS THAN 0.5 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH MARCH 13. THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER PROVIDES LONGER RANGE OUTLOOKS AND IS
INDICATING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MARCH 19 WITH GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTING. LOOKING
AHEAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MARCH...APRIL...MAY PERIOD...THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FORECASTS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...NEAR...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.

VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/DLH FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS FOR USGS
LOCATIONS PLEASE REFERENCE
FOR MINNESOTA   WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/MN/NWIS/RT
FOR WISCONSIN   WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/WI/NWIS/RT

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS AT
MN DNR LOCATIONS...REFERENCE
WWW.DNR.STATE.MN.US/WATERS/CSG/INDEX.HTML
OR
CLIMATE.UMN.EDU/DOW/WEEKLY_STREAM_FLOW/STREAM_FLOW_WEEKLY.ASP

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON CLIMATE OUTLOOKS REFERENCE
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY EARLY APRIL...OR EARLIER AS
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

KLH







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