Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FNUS73 KDLH 161346
FWSDLH

SPOT FORECAST FOR EAST ZONE PILES...TOFTE RANGER DISTRICT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
846 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0850 CDT ON OCTOBER 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

EXPECT A CLOUDY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE FOG UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME SUNSHINE BY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE CLOUDY SKIES
COULD LINGER. THEY ARE MORE LIKELY TO LINGER CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR.
REGARDLESS OF THE CLOUD COVER, IT SHOULD BE COOLER AND MORE HUMID THAN
YESTERDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
LIMITED TO THE LOWER 50S AND THE MINIMUM RH WILL LIKELY DROP TO THE 55
TO 60 PERCENT RANGE AT BEST. IT COULD BE 5 PERCENT HIGHER IF IT IS
CLOUDIER THAN FORECAST, AND 5 PERCENT LOWER IF IT SUNNIER. SMOKE
DISPERSION WILL BE BETTER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO BETTER WIND FLOW
TODAY.

AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST BY THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT BE HELPFUL ONCE WE
CAN PICK UP ON THE CLOUD COVER TREND AND SEE HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUD
COVER DISSIPATES. THIS WILL ALLOW ME TO GET A BETTER IDEA ABOUT THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE AND MINIMUM RH. PLEASE FEEL FREE TO CALL OR CONTACT
US IF THIS WOULD BE OF ANY HELP.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. AREAS
                    OF DENSE FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 53.
MIN HUMIDITY........59 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 3 TO 6 MPH INCREASING TO 8 TO
                    10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 1800 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 15 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (6600) INCREASING TO FAIR (25700) LATE IN
                    THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO GOOD (34200)
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO GOOD
                    (31400) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM
TEMP............39     41     48     53     52     48
RH..............90     86     73     59     61     68
20 FT WIND DIR..S      SE     SE     SE     SE     SE
20 FT WIND SPD..5      8      9      10     10     8
20 FT WIND GUST.6      10     12     14     14     10

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    40 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 41.
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 3 TO 7 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 800 FT AGL LATE.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 15 TO 20 MPH BECOMING NORTH LATE.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (18600) DECREASING TO POOR (8550).

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
TEMP............46     44     44     44     43     42
RH..............73     82     86     86     89     93
20 FT WIND DIR..SE     E      E      E      NE     N
20 FT WIND SPD..7      6      5      3      3      5
20 FT WIND GUST.8      7      6                    6

$$
FORECASTER...GEOFF
REQUESTED BY...PATRICK JOHNSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20141016.EASTZ.01/DLH






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