Spot Forecast Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
000
FNUS73 KDLH 102254
FWSDLH
Spot Forecast for Deer Lake...WI DNR
National Weather Service Duluth MN
554 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1800 CDT on April 10.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if
conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653.
.DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers will be moving into northern Burnett County and
over the Deer Lake burn site over the next hour. One rain shower
on track to arrive to the burn site between 1815-1830 CDT briefly
produced a 22 mph wind gust from the west-northwest. With a dry
mixing layer around 6,000 ft AGL deep, the expectation is that a
similarly strong gust will be likely (80% chance) as this shower
moves over the burn.
After this shower moves east of the burn by 1900 CDT, winds will
be backing to the southwest for the remainder of the evening. An
isolated light shower or two will be possible, but they are
expected to be weaker than what was observed this afternoon in
terms of rainfall rate and gusty winds. A cold front arriving
tonight will be shifting winds to the northwest with speeds easing
to around 4 to 8 mph for the overnight hours.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Chance of rain
showers early in the evening, then slight
chance of rain showers late in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 38.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 7 mph shifting to the
northwest around 5 mph after 3 am.
Mixing height.......5500 ft AGL decreasing to 1100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 15 mph shifting to the northwest
9 to 10 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (71700 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
(2600-9000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......MC MC MC MC MC MC MC PC PC MC MC MC
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).30 30 30 20 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............62 61 59 54 51 48 46 45 44 43 41 40
RH..............34 39 44 54 61 68 71 73 73 76 85 85
20 FT wind dir..W SW SW SW SW SW W W W NW NW NW
20 FT wind spd..9 7 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
20 FT wind gust.14 13 11 9 9 8 8 7 8 7 8 8
Mix hgt (kft)...5.5 1.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.W SW SW SW SW W NW NW NW NW NW NW
Transp wind spd.15 9 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10
Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
SDspl kt-ft/100072 9 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 4 4
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
rain late in the morning. Chance of rain early
in the afternoon, then rain likely late in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 58.
Min humidity........51 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL increasing to 4000 ft AGL late in
the morning.
Transport winds.....North 10 to 18 mph increasing to 20 to 21 mph
late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (3800-17100 knot-ft) increasing to
good to excellent (49600-70500 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
large plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.01 inches.
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY
Weather cov..... S CHC CHANCE LIKELY
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE RAIN RAIN RAIN
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 10 20 50 60
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............39 41 50 55 58 56
RH..............92 89 68 57 51 55
20 ft wind......NW 5 NW 6 NW 9 NW 10 NW 11 N 12
20 ft wind gust.8 11 13 15 18 18
Mix hgt (ft)....400 900 2100 3700 3700 3400
Transport wind..NW 10 N 14 N 15 N 17 N 20 N 21
Haines index....5 4 4 4 3 3
SDspl kt-ft/10004 11 27 55 64 61
$$
Forecaster...Woody
Requested by...Kirby Dernovsek
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410280.1/DLH
.DELDT 04/10/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL kirby.dernovsek@wisconsin.gov