001
FNUS73 KDLH 121249
FWSDLH

Spot Forecast for Moss Lake Unit 1...USFS
National Weather Service Duluth MN
749 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on May 12.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if
conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653.

.DISCUSSION...

Near-critical fire weather conditions are expected today. A cold
front passing through this morning before the time of ignition
will shift light and variable winds to the northwest for today.
Deep mixing is expected today, which will drop RH to a minimum of
23 percent this afternoon. This mixing may also result in some
smoke from Canadian wildfires reaching the surface. RH recovery
tonight are expected to be better than last night, as cooler air
advects in. Conditions tomorrow will be similar to today minus the
Canadian wildfire smoke. Min RH tomorrow will be slightly higher
at around 29 percent. Winds tomorrow will also veer from northwest
to the north.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent). Areas of smoke in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........23 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 8 to 14 mph.
Mixing height.......2600 ft AGL increasing to 7400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 17 to 22 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good (24200-39200 knot-ft) increasing
                    to excellent (124700-140900 knot-ft).
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MCR PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC
Weather cov.....    ARS ARS ARS ARS ARS ARS ARS ARS
Weather type....    SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............64  66  68  68  69  69  69  69  68
RH..............46  41  33  29  27  25  24  23  25
20 FT wind dir..NW  N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..8   10  11  11  12  12  13  13  13
20 FT wind gust.14  14  15  18  19  20  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...1.6 2.6 4.3 5.8 6.8 7.4 7.2 6.7 6.6
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.17  17  20  21  22  22  22  22  22
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/100024  39  73  106 130 141 137 128 126

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Areas of smoke
                    in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 40.
Max humidity........76-82 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 6 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......5900 ft AGL decreasing to 1100 ft AGL early in
                    the evening.
Transport winds.....Northwest 14 to 23 mph shifting to the north 10
                    to 12 mph late in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (90600-119900 knot-ft) decreasing to
                    poor to fair (4800-19100 knot-ft) early in the
                    evening.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY
Weather cov.....AREAS  AREAS  AREAS
Weather type....SMOKE  SMOKE  SMOKE  NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............66     61     54     49     46     42
RH..............27     34     47     58     61     73
20 ft wind......NW 12  NW 10  NW 8   N 7    N 6    N 5
20 ft wind gust.19     16     13     11     9      9
Mix hgt (ft)....5900   1100   800    600    600    500
Transport wind..NW 23  N 16   N 14   N 12   N 12   N 10
Haines index....5      3      3      3      3      3
SDspl kt-ft/1000120    19     10     6      6      5

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 65.
Min humidity........29 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 6 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL increasing to 4600 ft AGL in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....North 9 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (3800-19600 knot-ft) increasing to
                    good to excellent (50800-60200 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......PCLDY  CLEAR  CLEAR  MCLEAR MCLEAR CLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............42     46     53     59     63     65
RH..............75     67     49     40     32     29
20 ft wind......N 5    N 5    N 6    N 8    N 9    N 9
20 ft wind gust.8      8      11     13     14     14
Mix hgt (ft)....500    1400   2700   3700   4500   4500
Transport wind..N 9    N 12   N 13   N 14   N 15   N 15
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
SDspl kt-ft/10004      15     31     47     58     60

$$
Forecaster...Woody
Requested by...Mike Klick
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413789.1/DLH
.DELDT 05/12/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL michael.klick@usda.gov