Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 220908
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
308 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MODELS CONTINUE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGE
THE PRECIP AND STRONG WINDS/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

FOR TODAY...IT WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPS STARTING OUT NEAR 30 FOR
SOME AREAS. THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS IN THE NORTH NEAR A
BOUNDARY...BUT TO THE SOUTH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXPECT SUNSHINE
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN BEFORE 06Z...THEN INTO MUCH OF EASTERN ND BY
12Z SUN. MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE WARM...AND THE TOP/DOWN METHOD
SUGGESTS MAINLY FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE WOULD BE THE MAIN PTYPE.
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING FOR THE MOST PART.

FOR SUNDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS NORTH OF
THE BORDER THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT DEEPER LIFT AND SATURATION
WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST BY 00Z MON. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR
SOME MIXED PRECIP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO NE ND BY AFTERNOON...AND PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO
SNOW IN MOST AREAS BY 00Z MON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35-40KT TO MIX FROM 900MB AND
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 MPH FOR THE VALLEY WITH GUSTS TO
50 MPH OR PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTIONS. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE THE THREAT FOR BLOWING SNOW IN THE WRAPAROUND
LIGHT SNOW AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MODELS INDICATE
THERE COULD BE AN INCH...PERHAPS UP TO 2 IN THE NORTH WITH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTH. THERE SHOULD BE SOME BLOWING SNOW...BUT THIS
WILL HINGE ON WHO GETS SNOW SINCE ANY SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL
EITHER MELT TODAY AND SUNDAY...OR CRUST OVER. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE BLOWING SNOW THREAT IN THE GRIDS...HWO AND WEATHER
STORY...AND THAT CONTINUES TO COVER THIS THREAT. WE WILL LIKELY
NEED SOME SORT OF HEADLINES FOR WIND AT LEAST AND CLOSELY MONITOR
JUST HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS. TEMPS WILL FALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO TEENS SOUTH...AND NOT RISE MUCH ON MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND COLD...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS  HINGING ON JUST HOW CLEAR IT GETS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RELATIVELY QUIET
PERIOD IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SYSTEM. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWFA BY AFTERNOON. A WEAK
ALBERTA CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z WED.

MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP/FLOP WITH ECMWF/GEM-NH THE STRONGER AND
GFS/NAM/DGEX WEAKER THIS 00Z RUN. LIKE THE ECMWF POSITION OF
SFC/UPPER FEATURES BASED ON 250MB JET CONFIGURATION...WHICH IS
SIMILAR IN GFS/ECMWF. SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD ECMWF/GEM-NH/BLEND QPF
18Z TUE - 06Z WED.

AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD
QUICKLY END SNOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20
TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND WINDS OF
10 TO 25 MPH WIND CHILLS FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO BY
THANKSGIVING MORNING.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK FAIRLY QUIET WITH BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW.
ECMWF/GFS HAVE BEEN TRADING PLACES WITH REGARDS TO STRENGTH OF UPPER
FEATURES AND SURFACE REFLECTIONS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A MODEST
WARMUP BEGINNING AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT TEMPERATURES WOULD
STILL BE BELOW END OF NOVEMBER MEDIAN VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

STRATUS HAS STARTED TO CROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER BUT HAS STAYED
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES SO FAR. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN KEEPING THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOWER CIGS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...STAYING NORTH OF KGFK AND KBJI. THINK THAT THE MVFR STRATUS
MAY SEEP INTO KDVL AND KTVF FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD
GO BACK TO VFR FOR A WHILE AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MORE MOISTURE COMING IN LATE IN THE PERIOD SHOULD BRING
CIGS BACK DOWN TO MVFR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...EWENS/DK
AVIATION...JR






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