Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 282050
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
350 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

The upper low will continue to slowly slide southeastward towards
the Ohio Valley during this time, with upper ridging building
across the northern plains. Skies have been gradually clearing
along and west of the Red River Valley this afternoon, and
generally expect this trend to continue farther east overnight.
However, some clouds likely will persist, especially over parts of
northwest MN and perhaps into the valley. With light winds and
relatively moist low levels, some fog formation is possible during
the early morning hours. Expect lows generally around 40, but with
some variability in temps over the region, cooler locations could
potentially see some 30s and patchy frost. Diurnal cumulus likely
will develop on Thursday in addition to any cloud cover that
persists overnight, with the greatest coverage across northwest
MN. With more sunshine and some weak low-level warm advection
behind the surface high, temps on Thursday should climb a few
degrees higher than today.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Thursday night through Saturday...Upper level low over Indiana
and is forecast to wobble over the Ohio Valley through the period.
Upper forecast to fill slowly. Moisture around the system will
decrease but does increase again by late in the period as low
level flow becomes southeast. Upper level ridge will build over
southern Canada through the period. Little or no precip expected.

Saturday night through Wednesday...Long wave trough off the coast
of western North America shifts into central North America by the
end of the period. Long wave ridge over central Canada will shift
into eastern Canada by day 7. Long wave upper low over the OH
Valley will fill and slowly move northeast.

Both the ECMWF and the GFS were trending a little faster and farther
north over the last couple model runs. Both the ECMWF and the GFS
were trending slower in later periods. Will blend the models.

Little change to high temperatures on Sun. Highs on Mon were
increased a degree, Tue increased two degrees, and Wed was increased
3 to 5 degrees from this mornings forecast package.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Light winds expected through much of the period before becoming
southerly late in the period as high pressure shifts east.
Predominantly MVFR ceilings at the TAF sites should gradually
become VFR this afternoon and evening. Confidence in timing is
lowest across NW MN sites. Assuming skies clear by this evening,
will have to monitor fog potential early Thursday. Confidence is
not high enough yet to mention in TAFs, though.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...Hoppes
AVIATION...JAM



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