Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 280008
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
708 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 702 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

new update but same issues. low cloud clearing made it into Grand
Forks but low clouds still Grafton, Cavalier, Langdon west to
Rolla. What to happen tonight? Low clouds likely to sink back
south or re-form as will be a bit northeast tonight. But how far
south is the ? Fog as well. Fog has gotten dense once again in
Langdon while Rolla which was dense has improved. For now will
carry the fog from the prev shift and monitor. Short range models
indicate fog/low clouds in the north then dropping south with
vsbys improving in the north overnight while fog is more dominate
in the southern fcst area. Confidence in any one scenerio is low
but we do know the northern valley has the coldest and wettest
soils so would make sense fog fog/low clouds to re-develop or
remain there. But also seeing a tad drier air Winnipeg region
which may drop south and this may lead credence to idea of
improving conditions far north overnight as short range models
say. For now in aviation grids hit the fog/low clouds hardest in
the north and low clouds/low vsbys more so-so in the south as
least confidence there.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

The main challenge for tonight will be potential for fog
development. The low stratus over the northern valley has been
gradually eroding from all sides over the last few hours as sun
angle increased during the afternoon and east winds picked up a
tad...advecting in drier air. My forecast based on the clearing
trends clears out majority of Grand Forks county by mid-
evening...although the clearing trends have slowed down the last
30 min. So especially the ND side of the northern RRV may not
clear out prior to sunset...allowing it to remain cloudy through
the night. Best chance for this to happen will be Pembina and
eastern Walsh...and still thinking GF county will clear. There is
also a band of cu stretched across NE ND that should dissipate
this evening as well.

Remainder of the area will be clear for a good portion of the
evening with some increase in sky cover west of the valley by
morning. This will allow radiational cooling although tonight
there will be a slight easterly component wind which will be
somewhat drier air than last night. Do have areas of fog across
the region by 4 AM CDT...however not confident enough right now to
go dense fog and issue a headline. Best chance for headlines would
be in NE ND where overnight continuation of snowmelt adds to the
low level moisture. Warmest overnight lows will be across w cntrl
MN...generally in the mid-30s. With more clearing, portions of my
NW FA should fall into the upper 20s.

Dry on Tuesday with more sunshine and more areas climbing into the
50s...especially in the areas of lower albedo over Beltrami
county, where daytime highs today reached the upper 50s. Low 40s
in the northwest where some snow exists and a cooler start to the
day.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Tuesday night through Thursday...The medium range models are in
fairly good agreement on split flow with the northern branch
shortwave coming out into the Dakotas. There has been a weakening
trend with models bringing very little QPF into the area for
Wednesday/Wednesday night Kept the very low POPs we had going for
the northern counties. Temps will be highly dependent on what clouds
do, but with southerly winds and warm air advection expect readings
for the mid week period to be above seasonal averages.

Friday through Monday...A stronger northern branch shortwave will be
approaching for the end of the week, and models are in decent
agreement on some precip coming in as the wave moves through and a
cold front pushes down for Saturday. Will keep some fairly high POPs
that the blend of longer range models gives us. Temps will get
knocked back a bit with the cold front Saturday but should bounce
back on Sunday as upper ridging builds in again. Model consensus
starts to diverge at the end of the period with the GFS showing weak
upper ridging and the ECMWF more progressive with southwesterly flow
aloft ahead of the next system. Will keep some low POPs going along
with warmer than average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 702 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Low clouds and areas of fog to re-form tonight and likely impact
most TAF sites to some degree. Fargo and Bemidji would seem to
have the least long term impact but confidence in timing of low
clouds/vsbys at any one TAF site is low. Of the TAF sites GFK is
most prone to see LIFR conditions, DVL second most prone, followed
by TRF, FAR, and BJI.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 334 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Impacts from snow melt runoff will begin to make its way into the
Grafton and Pembina areas this week. River levels are expected to
continue to quickly rise at Grafton into major levels with an
expected crest between 14.5 and 15.5 feet. Moderate flooding is
expected by the end of the week at Pembina as northern valley
tributaries combine to push the river into the 43 to 45 foot
range late this week.

Streams are beginning to show some response across the Devils Lake
basin and along the Pembina River to field runoff. Most culverts
remain frozen however should begin to slowly open as the
temperatures remain above freezing for all but a few hours in the
morning. As a result continued slow rises are expected on the
Pembina River and across the coulees and streams of the Devils Lake
basin.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...Speicher
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...Riddle
HYDROLOGY...JK


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