Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 212029
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
329 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY COOL INTO THE LOWER 40S BY MORNING.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
THROUGH THE MORNING IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR
SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGHER CLOUDS
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL INTO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
PUNCTUATED WITH SUNNY BREAKS AND OTHERWISE SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO ON
SATURDAY AND THEN MOVING THAT SYSTEM CROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MOST OF THE DAKOTAS AND
MINNESOTA SHOULD STAY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK
DURING THE PERIOD...WITH DEEP /SURFACE BASED/ CONVECTION EDGING
INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA LATE SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION AND PERIODS OF MORE STRATIFORM
/WRAPAROUND/ PRECIPITATION APPEAR MORE LIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... TROUGHING OVER CONUS ROCKIES
WITH SW RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SW FLOW PATTERN NEXT
WEEK...AND AN ACTIVE WEEK OF WEATHER WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE LONG RANGE. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CENTRAL PLAINS CONVECTION (WHICH
LOOKS ACTIVE) AND CONSEQUENTLY HOW MUCH GULF MOISTURE IS CUT OFF
DUE TO CONVECTION IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. DO ANTICIPATE MORE SHOWERS
THAN TSTMS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WITH ANY WARMER DAYS LIMITED BY
INCREASED CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE WEEK AND DECREASING BY DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
UPDATED AT 325 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WHEN SOME
SCT CIRRUS IS POSSIBLE BUT VFR CONDS TO PERSIST THROUGH TAF PERIODS.
MOST SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP AT DVL BY
12Z AND SITES WITHIN VALLEY TURNING SOUTHERLY TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MILES PER HOUR. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY...PROVIDING A FEW MORE DEGREES OF WARMTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL WILL BE POOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AFTER THE
INVERSION SETS UP.

WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES...MIN HUMIDITIES MAY
DROP INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH AS TO PATH OF
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER
FIRE WEATHER...HOPKINS


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