Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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906
FXUS63 KFGF 281501 AAA
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1001 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 959 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Increased temperatures slightly to account for some clearing in
north central/northwest MN earlier this morning. Otherwise
forecast is holding well with gusts of 15 to 25 mph already
occurring at some locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Well defined compact vort max is now moving into NW MN. Area of
showers with it is a bit smaller than earlier, but moving thru the
Bemidji area. The today and tonight period will be influenced by
upper level low in central Manitoba. This will drop south-
southeast slowly and do look for a couple of short waves to move
south on the west side of the upper low. The main one for today
appears to be in east central Saskatchewan at 08z. This will move
SSE into the RRV this aftn and generate a pretty good coverage of
showers. Enough for likely pops NE ND and NW MN this aftn/eve.
Gusty winds as well with about 35 kt to mix down. Sustained winds
15-25 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph seem reasonable in the main wind
corridor from north central ND into southeastern ND. Did go higher
than the model blend for winds per area office coordination.

Shower threat will diminish a bit overnight but still expect a few
showers to hang around thru the overnight, esp NE half of the fcst
area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Upper level low will move southeast and be over northeastern
Minnesota Monday. Several short waves still to impact the area
so expect scattered showers. Coolest day Monday with temps in the
50s and continued gusty north-northwest wind.

Tuesday will see the upper trough gradually exit but still likely
a few aftn showers esp RRV and east.  Clearing Tues night.

Wednesday through Saturday...The models are in general agreement on
northwesterly flow aloft but differ on various shortwaves moving
through. The GFS brings a shortwave and weak frontal boundary
through on Thursday while the ECMWF has a more vigorous shortwave
coming through on Friday. With high uncertainty will keep the
blended solution going which has some low POPs late Friday and
Friday night and fits the ensemble probabilities better than either
of the deterministic models. Temps should be near average for the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Expect a chaotic, variable sky cover and cloud base today and
tonight as clouds rotate south-southeast around the upper low in
Manitoba. Overall expect a mostly low end VFR deck in E ND and NW
MN today with times of MVFR cigs in showers. Overnight tonight
better chc of MVFR cigs spreading thru NW MN with psbl IFR cigs
back into Bemidji. NW winds gusting to 30-35 kts DVL-FAR region
this aftn.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BP
SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...Riddle/JR
AVIATION...Riddle



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