Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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991
FXUS63 KFGF 281404
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
904 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 904 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Updated the forecast to mention some areas of fog from Langdon to
Devils Lake to New Rockford. Will only keep this for another hour
or so, before conditions should improve. Otherwise, not much
shower activity occurring yet, so will scale back on pcpn chances
until late morning. There are a few showers up around Walhalla,
but these are lifting northward. There is a larger area of pcpn
over eastern South Dakota that will push up into the FA this
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Forecast challenge today with be extent of rain with approaching
stacked low. Models in reasonable agreement with main features but
continue to differ on extent of rain fall.

Stacked low over S central Nebraska will propagate NNE into S Mn
by evening. As it does arcing band of rain around low will lift
north into the Fa mainly from afternoon into the evening. Current
boundary(northern extent of inverted trough from southern low)
through the valley is expected to drift slightly west today as
more persistent NE surface flow develops. As broad scale lift
from low approaches could see more persistent pcpn along boundary.
Relatively low convective temperatures and moist layer will result
in quite a bit of cloud cover today holding temperatures down. As
a result convective parameters weak with at best 500 j/kg cape and
only slightly negative lifted index and weak shear. So at this
point not expecting a significant amount of rain fall. Also
ridging into the central Dakotas will limit pcpn potential over
the far western fa.

As upper low continues to lift east tonight pcpn should be ending
from W-E overnight. Dewpoints remain rather consistent so low
temperatures should not be too much different that what we have
been seeing.

Mid level flow will transition into a more zonal pattern on
Sunday. Column eventually dries during the day however with
convective temperatures in the mid 60s and shallow moist layer
will initially start with cloud cover and gradually thinning
clouds during mid/late afternoon. Temperatures should still be
able to recover into the 70s.

Minimum temperatures Sunday night will be a bit cooler with
clearing.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Memorial Day looks should start out clear with advancing clouds
during the afternoon. Temperatures should be able to rise into the
upper 70s most areas with warmer column and solar.

Next upper low will propagate into the region Monday night into
later periods. This will bring increasing chances for pcpn to the
area.

Tuesday to Friday night...Attention will be on 500mb short wave
moving into the FA from the west on Tuesday. Timing and track will
appear to be in better agreement...leading to higher confidence
among model solns. Clouds and PCPN chances increase during the day
Tuesday from west to east with some modest instability working into
the southeastern areas of the FA. System wraps up on Wednesday with
clouds and showers exiting to the east along with north
winds...making the first day of June rather cool with highs in the
60s. Thursday and Friday temps return to the 70s as increasing
heights and NW 500mb flow bring drier weather to the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Cigs range from IFR across the western FA to VFR in the east with
MVFR cigs in the valley. Model soundings suggest cigs should raise
to around 5k FT by around noon. Guidance then lowers cigs again
tonight however confidence low on this. Do not anticipate any
significant reduction to vsby.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...JK/Voelker
AVIATION...Voelker



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