Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 202027
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
327 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Forecast impacts in the short term will be temperatures and severe
threat.

For update adjusted heat headlines to account for cloud cover
limiting temperatures.

In spite of the slow dissipation of low level stratus across the
region holding temperatures down sufficient instability and cape
exist for severe potential. Timing of convective initiation still
somewhat uncertain however short wave lifting through Montana
likely to interact with boundary across NW-N central ND with
convection then propagating east tonight. In line with the SPC
outlook the favored area looks to be along and north of highway
200. Similar to last night large hail and damaging winds will be
the main threats. Weak surface boundary/cool front should be
through all but the east by morning. The far NW will be first to
feel cooler/drier air moving in behind boundary late tonight. The
remainder of the fa will see another muggy night.

Column cools a bit Thursday in wake of boundary passage but
remains mild. Lower dewpoints begin to move in from NW-SE. The
far south will likely remain warm and humid enough that some sort
of heat headline possible but at this point looks marginal. With
high pressure moving in anticipating a break in the stormy weather
and will keep forecast dry.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Friday-Wednesday...Main concern will be severe thunderstorm
potential Friday evening/overnight...and then again Saturday
afternoon/evening. Synoptically speaking...models are in good
agreement and indicate a stronger signal raising confidence that a
couple more severe (possibly significant) event will occur through
the early part of the weekend.  Confidence still low with details
(exact timing...exact threats and evolution).  Quieter weather on
tap to end the weekend heading into next week. Active weather again
looks possible by the middle of next week. Temperatures cooler
following the passage of a cold front on Saturday...more toward
normal values.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

CIGS a pain and have not been cooperating at all. ST deck
continues to slowly erode however have again extended cig
potential into early afternoon. Storm potential looks best across
the north but still enough uncertainty on timing to limit tempo
group for T to DVL with VCNTY at GFK and TVF. When and if CIGS
lift looking for VFR conditions the remainder of the period except
in heavier T late afternoon/tonight.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NDZ027-
     030-039-049-052-053.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026-028-029-038-054.

MN...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for
     MNZ001>003-015-022>024-027>032-040.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ004>009-013-014-
     016-017.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...Voelker


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