Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 161858
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1258 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

STILL MONITORING CLOUD TRENDS AS QUITE A BIT OF THE FA REMAINS
CLEAR. EXCEPTION IS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY
WHERE CLOUDS WILL HANG ON LONGER. WHERE THERE ARE CLOUDS THERE
WILL STILL BE FLURRIES. TEMPS HAVE RISEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SUNNY KDVL REGION SO WILL RAISE HIGH TEMPS A
LITTLE MORE THERE. OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER.

SPLIT FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH A NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER LOW
DIGGING DOWN INTO MN FROM CANADA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
FROM MANITOBA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE AXIS HAS STARTED TO
ENTER THE WESTERN CWA AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME CLEARING IN THAT
AREA. THE SFC HIGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH TODAY. THINK THAT
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE RED RIVER THAT WILL BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE HIGH WILL STAY SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS MOST OF THE DAY. THE WEST
WILL BE MORE COMPLEX AS THERE IS SOME DECENT CLEARING ALL THE WAY
UP INTO THE LAKES OF MANITOBA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE VALLEY
SITES WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOW TEENS...BUT THE DEVILS LAKE
AREA HAS MUCH HIGH CONVECTIVE TEMPS PROGGED SO THINK THAT THERE
WILL BE NOT AS GOOD OF A CHANCE OF CU REDEVELOPMENT IN THAT AREA.
WENT WITH LESS CLOUD COVER IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND A COLDER
START TO OUR WEST THIS MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE
TEENS.

TONIGHT...THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS...AND
THINK WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DECREASE OVER ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST.
THAT AREA WILL SEE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW FLURRIES
AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO HAVE SOME
INFLUENCE. FURTHER WEST...THINK THAT LESS CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP LIKE A ROCK TO NEAR THE ZERO MARK.
DID NOT GO WIDESPREAD NEGATIVE TEMPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF
SNOW COVER IN MOST AREAS...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS. THE
COLD SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
SUN THAT EVEN WITH A COLDER START TEMPS WILL REACH THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS ALL BRING A WEAK
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT WITH MOISTURE
LACKING AND STILL NOT MUCH FLOW IT CONTINUES TO LOOK PRETTY DRY.
THERE WILL BE SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKING IN BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT EVEN THEN THE MODELS ARE PRETTY SPARSE WITH QPF SO
WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE AS THE SFC
HIGH STARTS TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN. TEMPS SHOULD
START OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT REACH THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS
THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WEATHER OVER THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE AREA STAYS MOSTLY
UNCHANGED. SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA WITH
WEAK GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS. RETURN FLOW AT THE SFC AND INCREASING
THICKNESS VALUES INDICATING A SLOW WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPS
REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE ON MONDAY WITH
A WEAK WAVE CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

CLEAR SLOT WEST OF THE VALLEY TO HOLD WITH GENERALLY SKC. VALLEY ON
EDGE OF THICKER MVFR CLOUD COVER AND WILL SEE MVFR CIGS IN AND OUT
WITH SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP INDICATING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE VALLEY MORE CELLULAR SO WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT
THIS EVENING. CLEARING WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT WITH BJI
LAST TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS AND MAY HAVE TO WAIT TIL TOMORROW TO LOSE
LOWER CIGS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...VOELKER






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