Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 271521
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1021 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WARM AND MUGGY DAY AHEAD. SOME MID CLOUDS SHOWERS JAMESTOWN AREA
MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND DESPITE A WARM MID LAYER COULD SEE
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED T-STORM WITH
THIS LITTLE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY. OTHERWISE WARM LAYER ALOFT
PUTTING A CAP ON THINGS AND EXPECT NO CUMULUS OUTSIDE OF AREA OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOSITURE. VARIOUS CONVECTIVE MODELS AND
INCOMING NAM ALL SLOW DOWN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION FAR WRN
ND SEVERAL HOURS AND REALLY SLOW DOWN THE ADVANCE OF T-STORMS
EASTWARD INTO ERN ND/RRV. THUS DID SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO KEEP MOST
AREAS DRY THRU AT LEAST 03Z (EXCEPT FAR WEST) AND THEN ADVANCED
PRECIP A BIT SLOWER THAN PREV FCST. FURTHER FINE TUNING LIKELY
NEEDED AS MORE DATA COMES IN. CERTAINLY MAIN FOCUS FOR SEVERE
TODAY WILL BE SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN....ERN MT AND WRN ND.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH THE NAM BREAKING THE
CAP A BIT TOO SOON THIS AFTERNOON...SO PREFER THE GFS.

FOR TODAY...IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH TEMPS NEAR 90.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO HOLD OF UNTIL TONIGHT WITH A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE NAM DOES BREAK THE CAP BY LATE
AFTERNOON NEAR THE DVL BASIN.

FOR TONIGHT...A STRONG TO SEVERE MCS SHOULD MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE AS
A 50KT LLJ INCREASES INTO THE AREA AFTER DARK. DEEP LAYERED SHEAR
PROFILES WILL ALSO INCREASE AFTER DARK...AND EXPECT A POTENTIAL
BOW ECHO OR SEVERAL SEVERE CLUSTERS OF STORMS MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN AREAS AROUND 00Z...PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. PWATS ARE
PROGGED NEAR 2 INCHES ALSO...SO TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR
NEAR ANY STORM.

ON TUE...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN
THE NORTH. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND THIS STRONG MID SUMMER
SYSTEM...AND COULD APPROACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. THE GFS IS VERY
STRONG WITH WINDS...SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

FOR TUE NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS IN THE NORTH OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRIER/COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN.

FOR WED...EXPECT A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY WITH ABOUT 30-40KT TO MIX
FROM THE NW. ONCE AGAIN...IT COULD BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS AND TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

LONG WAVE PATTERN WAS ZONAL WITH A FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA AND A FLAT TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
/NORTHERN PLAINS. PATTERN AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LONG
WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA AND LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER HUDSON
BAY/GREAT LAKES. THE GFS BECOMES FASTER THAN THE ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS WERE TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE
LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY A DEGREE LOWER
FOR FRI AND SUN AND LESS SO FOR THU AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH 13Z WHERE IT
CLEAR...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE THREAT FOR
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...AND WILL
TRY TO TIME THIS THREAT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK



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