Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 181458

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
958 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Issued at 958 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Main forcing with the upper shortwave trough is staying over
Canada and our best winds have been to the north with no one
currently reaching wind advisory criteria. However, we will get
some good mixing this afternoon up to 800mb, and some gusts up to
40 kts will be possible. Will continue to keep the wind advisory
as it stands. The mixing will also help drop dew points down into
the teens across the northern counties this afternoon. This will
allow afternoon RH values to get down below 20 percent in the
current Red Flag warning. Will leave the headlines as they are but
update the wording.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Strong cold front will move east through the forecast area this
morning and midday. 8 mb/3 hr pressure rise with the front and
there is a short period where mixing of the 50kt winds from the
surface may make it to the ground. Otherwise the highest 850 mb
winds do retreat to north of the border during the late morning
and midday when the best mixing occurs and mixing layer goes to
840-820 mb. Will keep wind advisory in effect the NE ND and the
nrn RRV, but for many it will be a high end advisory. Will mention
some blowing dust as well in the NPW. Another thing keeping from a
high wind warning is that the best drying aloft as seen on water
vapor will focus more on southern Manitoba today. Winds to quickly
diminish early evening.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Another warmup is expected for Thursday and Friday as winds become
more southerly and bring warmer temperatures and moisture into the
northern Plains region. Model guidance continues to agree on upper
level ridging over the Plains and southern Canada with a longwave
trough coming on shore in the Pacific North West. Temperatures
Thursday and Friday are expected to warm to the mid to upper 70s
with breezy southerly winds at 15 to 20 mph, especially through the
Red River Valley region.

Overnight Friday into Saturday the upper level wave will begin
ejecting over the Rockies. An associated lee surface low is expected
to develop along the North Dakota/Canadian border. Cool, dry
continental air is expected to push in with this low as a cold
front, impacting the forecast area during the first half of the day
Saturday. Precipitation timing and totals are still uncertain at
this point, with western Minnesota the most likely candidate to see
rainfall. Cooler air behind the front will keep high temperatures
for Saturday in the mid 60s for much of the eastern North
Dakota/west/northwestern Minnesota region.

A cool, but drier Sunday is in store with temperatures in the low to
mid 60s and southwesterly winds at 10 to 15 mph expected. Monday
will see rain chances return as a forecasted shortwave trough
progresses through the region allowing for scattered light rain
showers. Monday and Tuesday will see a return to seasonable
temperatures with highs in the mid 50s and overnight lows dropping
into the 30s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

VFR today. But the main issue will be wind gusts. West winds
behind a cold front will increase and vary from 25 to 40 kts at
DVL, GFK areas mid to late morning and thru late afternoon. Windy
as well at TVF/FAR/BJI but a tad less. But these winds will impact
aviation interests over the entire region. Winds will diminish
quickly 23z-02z period.


Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Will upgrade the fire weather watch to a red flag warning and
issue SPS for critical fire weather conditions in WC MN per MIFC.
RH values reach around 20 percent NE ND into far NW MN and with
gusty winds 40-50 mph and dry fuels, any fires that would start
could grow explosively.


ND...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ008-016-026>030-

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006-007-014-015-

MN...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for MNZ001>009-013>017-022-023.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001-004-007.



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