Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 190444
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1144 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

No changes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

High pressure near Dauphin Manitoba this aftn will move slowly
east-southeast tonight and be near Baudette by 12z Fri. Clear sky
and a dry airmass in place over northern fcst area ideal for
radiational cooling. Looking for low temperatures to be in the
31-34 degree range widespread over northeastern ND into
northwestern MN...with locally cold spots in the upper 20s. A bit
warmer in the southern RRV and west central MN where a few more
high clouds psbl and airmass not as dry.

Look for an increase in high cloudiness thru the day Friday. But
after coordinating with neighboring offices removed any chc of
precip in the aftn for the southern fcst area. High pressure to
our east with ridging back west into the RRV to keep our area dry
thru the daytime Friday. Thicker clouds in the far southern fcst
area to keep them a bit cooler than today, while northern half of
fcst area to see more sun and a bit warmer readings.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

Friday night into Saturday will see clouds increase further and
rain start to spread north reaching southern RRV and west central
MN very late Friday night and Saturday morning and the northern
RRV and northwestern MN Saturday aftn/eve with light rain into
Sunday. Far western fcst area on the edge of the rain. Light rain
with clouds and a cool northerly wind with rain amounts for this
event in the 0.10 to 0.50 inch range for most with a bit higher
amounts Bemidji-Fergus Falls region where up to 0.75 inch
possible.

Northwest flow will characterize the upper air pattern during the
extended forecast period. Surface low pressure will move close to
ND/SD border Mon with associated shower activity. Convective
parameters too meager to include any thunder at this time. System
pushes to the east on Tue followed by what can best be described as
an absence of low pressure for Tue night into Wed. Quick moving
short wave traversing the NW flow may trigger some pcpn later Wed
with a dry end for Thu.

Temps still mostly below normal, with Mon and even Tue perhaps a tad
cooler than the 60s we are going with now. This will depend on cloud
cover and pcpn then the mercury will trend more toward late May
normals by Thu.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

Cirrus clouds starting to move into the southern Red River Valley,
with all TAF sites VFR and remaining so throughout the period. The
cirrus coverage will increase tomorrow. Winds will shift from a
northeasterly direction to east then southeast in some locations,
but remain under 12 kts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT Friday for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
     026>030-038-054.

MN...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT Friday for MNZ001-002-004>009-
     013>017-022>024-028-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...WJB/Riddle
AVIATION...JR



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