Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 181553
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
953 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Bumped up highs a bit in the east central counties where the
trees have already caused temps to rise to upper 30s to near 40.
With full sunshine those areas should have no problem getting
close to 50 again this afternoon. Elsewhere kept highs in the
upper 30s northwest to lower 50s in the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 311 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

The main forecast challenge will be temperatures, after the record
breaking highs from yesterday. As of now, these temperatures were
still holding in the upper 20s to upper 30s, so there will be
another mild start. Winds today look to be a tad lower this
afternoon than they were yesterday, and 925mb temps also look a
bit lower, but there should be a fair amount of sun again.
Therefore, not expecting any mid to upper 50s for highs, but there
should still be some mid 50s across the far southern Red River
Valley. Unless temps warm more than this, records will not be
reached. Another mild night in store for the area tonight, with
above freezing temps holding across the south, and a little
cooler to the north.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 311 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Winds will turn to the southeast on Sunday with 925mb temps
warming a little over those from Saturday. Looks like there will
be a little more cloud cover around too, but will go with highs
Sunday a little warmer than Saturday. If these readings pan out,
they should be near or just above record highs. Some of the model
solutions still hold onto a little light pcpn along the Canadian
border Sunday afternoon, but overall it looks a little weaker than
prior model runs.

For Sunday night through Monday night, a surface low is expected
to lift from central SD into eastern Manitoba. As it does,
precipitable water values approach an inch with sfc dew point
values rising into the low to mid 40s. Still see some elevated
instability on Monday, so will keep isolated thunder mentioned.
Models still seem to agree with pcpn amounts in the 0.25 to 0.50
inch range, but if thunder does form, there is always a potential
for locally higher amounts. 925mb temps look very warm on Monday,
especially over the southern Red River Valley into our Minnesota
FA. Currently forecasting another record high at Fargo, with the
Grand Forks sites being just below.

The anomalously warm 1000-500mb thermal ridge persists over the
central and eastern NOAM through midweek... but with a series of H5
shortwave trofs steadily digging across the area into the late week
period... resulting in an eventual cool down.

Monday night will see the wet H5 shortwave trof exiting the area to
the east and a much weaker shortwave transiting the area from
Tuesday into Wednesday. Temperatures remain unseasonably warm
overall... with a very light rain showers possible across the north
again Tuesday night into Wednesday.

A much stronger shortwave trof breaks across the intermountain west
into the plains by Thursday morning... with a deep Colorado Low
likely to develop and impact the Central and Northern Plains from
Thursday into Friday. For now... a light rain and snow mix is
expected into the southern Red River Valley by Thursday afternoon...
turning to all snow by evening and spreading into west central and
northcentral Minnesota. Models currently peg portions of South
Dakota and southern Minnesota for heavier amounts of rain and
snow... though confidence on location is currently quite low.

Increasing north winds and markedly cooler temperatures are most
certain for Friday and Saturday... with temperatures settling near
seasonal normals. Areas of light snow are possible yet on Friday...
especially south and east of a Buxton to Baudette line... and
tapering to flurries by early saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 638 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Not expecting anything other than mid or high level clouds today,
along with steady west winds. These west winds will decrease
through the afternoon, then turn ESE later tonight into Sunday.
Guidance tries to bring in lower ceilings tonight into Sunday, but
not sure if that will come true. Therefore kept ceilings in the
VFR range throughout the entire TAF period, and later forecasts
can adjust these ceilings downward if need be.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Godon/Gust
AVIATION...Godon



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